coolhand's Account Talk

[nnuut]

Where is the common sense? 2+2 = 4 things that the Admin is doing just don't add up considering our economic condition, they are breaking all of the rules that are common knowledge looking back at history, what are they trying to do? That's what the people don't understand, but some of us do.

 

[coolhand]

Stickan thinks we have the makings of a major crash...and soon.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=120572&st=0&p=528401&#entry528401

Now- since the trend has been down - the most probable path will be DOWN - with help of the energy from the most powerfu planets in the solar system.
It does look like a crash - perhaps the the most devastating crash we have seen.

I think the clue is the Euro - it will probably go first - then the stockmarket.
And also consider Gold, in my opinion not a gauge of inflation anymore but FEAR - a spike in Gold could also be the clue.

But since all eyes are on the stockmarket - it will not give the clue.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm basically speechless. But I'm holding my bullish positions.

 

[Boghie]

I, personally, think I'm going to panic!!!

 

[coolhand]

I'm basically speechless.

WHAT?!? No way!! You??? :laugh:

 

[coolhand]

I, personally, think I'm going to panic!!!

I with ya on that count.

 

[KevinD]

Next week should be interesting...

 

[coolhand]

I, personally, think I'm going to panic!!!

Have you ever had that feeling of impending doom? I know first hand what that feels like (I'm allergic to insect stings) and stickan's post almost makes me feel the same way.

 

[Boghie]

Have you ever had that feeling of impending doom? I know first hand what that feels like (I'm allergic to insect stings) and stickan's post almost makes me feel the same way.

I have been counting the days till 12/21/2012.
I can hear the Mayan's marching across the undefended border.
Oh, damn, that's right - those are Mexicans looking for jobs Americans won't do

Sorry, CH, while I place weight on the Seven Sentinals (wish they weren't so choppy recently) I have to admit that my astrology advice comes from Birch.

And he is - surprisingly - sticking to a long position.

So, I am staying long.

I'll blame Birch for every penny I may lose.

Bad Birch.:laugh:

 

[coolhand]

I

Sorry, CH, while I place weight on the Seven Sentinals (wish they weren't so choppy recently) I have to admit that my astrology advice comes from Birch.

And he is - surprisingly - sticking to a long position.

:laugh:

Uh...surprisingly? The same Birch that would remain bullish in the face of a massive asteroid strike on planet earth? :laugh:

 

[Boghie]

Uh...surprisingly? The same Birch that would remain bullish in the face of a massive asteroid strike on planet earth? :laugh:

Shhhh,

Just between you and me...

I think the only way Birch would sell any of his TSP equity fund shares would be if Saturn flipped on edge, got pulled toward the sun by gravity, and clipped Florida on its way to slaming into Venus.

Then we might watch Birch sell more than 5% of any of his equities holdings.

That could be the market signal that demonstrates we are in a crash rather than a correction

 

[coolhand]

Europe's Horrendous Liquidity Just Got Even Worse (And Nonexistent In Spain)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eu...ity-just-got-even-worse-and-nonexistent-spain

 

[coolhand]

http://www.forbes.com/2010/06/08/fi...homas-cooley.html?boxes=opinionschannellatest

People are worried about the economy, and they should be. They have been told to expect a strong rebound from our deep recession. The usual pattern is that recoveries mirror the strength of the decline--the steeper the drop, the more vigorous the rebound. It isn't happening. The latest employment report makes it clear that the economy is not adding jobs. State and local governments faced with declining revenues are being forced to cut employment, wages and services, and they are raising taxes wherever they can.

A little over a year ago the Obama administration passed a staggering $787 billion stimulus package designed to rescue the economy. More than half of that money has now been spent, and the economy is still just creaking along. But now people are realizing that there is a dark side to this spending orgy. It has to end, and then we have to pay the bill. If we need any reminders that the day of reckoning is coming we have only to look to Europe.

 

[Boghie]

A little over a year ago the Obama administration passed a staggering $787 billion stimulus package designed to rescue the economy. More than half of that money has now been spent, and the economy is still just creaking along. But now people are realizing that there is a dark side to this spending orgy. It has to end, and then we have to pay the bill. If we need any reminders that the day of reckoning is coming we have only to look to Europe.

What do you mean I've got to pay the bill?

That’s just wrong.

I have just spent two years getting out of a massive credit card debt hole and you are telling me that I've still got more to pay:nuts:

Actually, between you and me CH...

I am waiting for the tax hikes.

I can tax manage away at least a 3% income tax increase without much problem. I did that dirty deed to Kalefornea at the beginning of this year when they jacked up my income and car taxes. I will be a very rich retiree (if I can survive this crappy year in the market!!!).

But, keep it quiet. I don’t want all the folks who pay no income tax to get all mad at me. Not paying my part or whatever.

 

[coolhand]

If this happens (or happened), we have another catalyst for a massive crash.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_uMg84BBzE

 

[Tsunami]

What do you mean I've got to pay the bill?

Actually, between you and me CH...

I am waiting for the tax hikes.

Wait until next year when Congress approves a 10% Value Added Tax. Over 100 countries worldwide have it now, it's coming here soon. And 10% is just for starters.

Anyone out there subscribe to Arch Crawford's newsletter? I'd be curious to get a hint on what he's saying now about the timing of his predicted crash this summer. About 6 months ago he was saying by August 1st I think.

http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/
His free January newsletter: http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/documents/CP10Jan_000.pdf
Ah, here's a recent interview, sounds like no change from that newsletter: http://realitylenses.blogspot.com/2010/05/arch-crawford-interview-20100513.html Ike Iosiff sounds like a muppet on Sesame Street.

I don't get that astral stuff either, but Hulbert says he's among the most accurate newsletters out there.

 

[coolhand]

I don't get that astral stuff either, but Hulbert says he's among the most accurate newsletters out there.

I don't either, but in this case I would remind the MB that stickan already made a call several months ago using traditional TA that the bull market was heading south. The astral stuff just supports that initial TA work.

Sure is interesting though. And it got Birch's attention too. :cheesy:

 

[crws]

A good indicator is that companies are reinvesting in themselves, however, IMHO, after all the costs have been contained and inventory minimized, there still remains the issue that the consumer has to spend for growth to continue. It would seem impractical for a broad-based rally on news that for the short term, China can continue to produce goods cheap enough for consumers to afford while living on unemployment...

btw- in the morning, our dog has been squatting to pee for the last 3 weeks- all of a sudden he is peeing with his left leg up. This is in contrast to how he consistently peed with his right leg up all the way thru April!
I see that as a clear indicator the market is headed lower!:laugh:

found this tidbit....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-predictor-set-to-turn-negative-2010-06-10
Jon Markman's Speculations
June 10, 2010, 9:40 a.m. EDT
Beyond the Ouija board

Commentary: Economic predictor set to turn negative, spook market


By Jon Markman
SEATTLE (MarketWatch) -- The most prescient statistical guide to the health of the U.S. economy is set to turn negative on Friday for the first time since early 2009, an event that is going to spook super-bulls and give comfort to super-bears.
But the keeper of the measure's flame says both sets of extreme views will be unwarranted, as it only means growth is about to slow noticeably -- not collapse.
The gauge is called the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, and for the past five decades it has been one of the few products of economic research that has risen above the level of tarot cards and necromancy.


While not considered mainstream due to its reliance on non-linear math to predict cycle turns rather than on regression formulas that extrapolate the past, the WLI has nevertheless forged an enviable reputation for accurately calling recessions and recoveries well in advance.
In mid-2007, the WLI forecast the 2008 recession when most economists and investors were still seeing blue skies ahead. In late 2008 it surprisingly forecast a u-turn higher into recovery amid the depths of the global financial crisis. The WLI accurately retained its positive posture for a year, garnering criticism from bears all the way, before peaking and rolling over last winter again.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/ceridian-index-jumps-3-1-in-may

 

[coolhand]

TLT is sitting on support. The euro is up again, ergo our stock market is too. I don't think this is going to last. Next week will probably tell the tale.

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