coolhand
Well-known member
Some interesting comments from a savvy trader on trader's talk:
So folks, looking at the big picture for a minute...
Things really changed in the last month, and you may recall I wondered months ago how they would be able to get the market to rally on a stronger dollar? They did it. The US$ Index moved from 74 - 78 and instead of lower equity prices we made new highs...
So that's why I switched my leading indicator to SOX. Now I am also getting confirming signals on the fundamentals side from my electronics industry contacts that the network/infrastructure area is cooking. Better than expected. So, again, this could have already been priced in or not... We still have a Com'l R.E. Bubble looming, and we have discussed that here also.
But if that Com'l R.E. cat does not get out of the bag, whatever decline we have here will be just a retracement. As I have said for months, we're not going back to 666 on the SPX unless the BANKS break down. And that simply isn't happening.
So we watch that, but if they don' t break then we're probably going to see the next leg UP off the next low we get. Now I would think that low would have to be a substantial pullback, or we run into fibonacci possibilities of puking everything.
So that's where I'm coming from today, things are changing out here.
I also suspect that by late spring, even if we do get a deep retracement, it will be like February 2007 with subprime and they will pooh pooh the Com'l R.E. PROBLEM, and run those equities in your face... see another 10/1 reverse split on SRS at $5 and then watch them pound it down from 50. So I suggest that there are some human dynamics at work here, such as that people would LOVE to believe that this Horrible Downturn could end... but I'm not optimistic there. Nevertheless, the way I'm thinking today is that by June, a lot of people are going to start believing that it is over.
The political dynamic is such that we are in an election year. Now one of the things that gives me pause is seeing all these elected officials "retiring" in Congress. So maybe they know something about Com'l R.E. or the banks that I don't.
Anyway it's not hard to see that we're all on the Titanic, and looking to the sky isn't going to clear those icebergs...
So folks, looking at the big picture for a minute...
Things really changed in the last month, and you may recall I wondered months ago how they would be able to get the market to rally on a stronger dollar? They did it. The US$ Index moved from 74 - 78 and instead of lower equity prices we made new highs...
So that's why I switched my leading indicator to SOX. Now I am also getting confirming signals on the fundamentals side from my electronics industry contacts that the network/infrastructure area is cooking. Better than expected. So, again, this could have already been priced in or not... We still have a Com'l R.E. Bubble looming, and we have discussed that here also.
But if that Com'l R.E. cat does not get out of the bag, whatever decline we have here will be just a retracement. As I have said for months, we're not going back to 666 on the SPX unless the BANKS break down. And that simply isn't happening.
So we watch that, but if they don' t break then we're probably going to see the next leg UP off the next low we get. Now I would think that low would have to be a substantial pullback, or we run into fibonacci possibilities of puking everything.
So that's where I'm coming from today, things are changing out here.
I also suspect that by late spring, even if we do get a deep retracement, it will be like February 2007 with subprime and they will pooh pooh the Com'l R.E. PROBLEM, and run those equities in your face... see another 10/1 reverse split on SRS at $5 and then watch them pound it down from 50. So I suggest that there are some human dynamics at work here, such as that people would LOVE to believe that this Horrible Downturn could end... but I'm not optimistic there. Nevertheless, the way I'm thinking today is that by June, a lot of people are going to start believing that it is over.
The political dynamic is such that we are in an election year. Now one of the things that gives me pause is seeing all these elected officials "retiring" in Congress. So maybe they know something about Com'l R.E. or the banks that I don't.
Anyway it's not hard to see that we're all on the Titanic, and looking to the sky isn't going to clear those icebergs...
