ContrarianJeff's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Better late than never...be patient and you will clean up again.

Knowing when to get out despite a loss is key...I think you are making the right choice.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Yeah, CP, I'm out--all in to the G fund. Even though the market is up nicely as I type this, it really looks weak. I thought we would rally to the 900-1000 range pretty quickly, but now I think that a dramatic move down is more likely. Even if we do rally, I'd rather sit this out for now in cash. Elliott waves show the next big move to be down to around 600-650. That's scary.

 

[mojo]

Better late than never...be patient and you will clean up again.

Knowing when to get out despite a loss is key...I think you are making the right choice.

+++1 I even moved my 3% on Tracker IFT today. It had actually built up to 9% in my real account through contributions and 1% transfers. I put all of my future contributions to G and I will move it in when I want. Your still doing very very well if today holds steady. I still have 1 move left to get in but I may not need it this month.

Take care

 

[ContrarianJeff]

As of this moment, I'm long in my TSP account and short in my ETrade account, and I tell you what--it's a lot more fun being short in this market than long. Any little movement up just seems to roll over. Not good.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Mojo--I certainly should have bailed over the weekend, as you suggested. I would have saved myself a lot of money. Oh well--live and learn!
Blessings,
Jeff

 

[ContrarianJeff]

This market is very scary. Although the Dow is down 100+ points, the VIX is actually DOWN as I'm typing this. The market is down 5% this week, and the VIX is virtually unchanged. That shows an incredible amount of complacency in the market. There is no fear. It suggests we've got a lot of further downside from here.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Jason Geopfert at SentimenTrader points out that when the S&P 500 fell at least 3% to a new 1 year low, then rose at least 3% the next day (like it did on Tuesday), there was usually some gains after an additional 2 days (10 out of 13 times). After that, the market went down about 70% of the time by an average of almost 4% during the next week.

Applying that history to today suggests that there is a decent shot of some modest gains tomorrow, but that Friday or Monday will begin to bring us down to the crucial 740 level again. My fear is that if we break 740 the selling could accelerate and we could drop another 10% to 20% pretty quickly. I really thought the PPT would step up big-time today after Obama's speech. The banks rallied nicely off their lows, as did the XLF. But the XLF hit a wall around 8.40, which is the bottom of a gap created last Tuesday. That's going to be a tough gap to fill.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p13914126753

 

[Boghie]

ContrarianJeff,

Me thinks we fell of the charts. I wouldn't be looking at them anytime soon. How is anyone going to reliably 'market-time' in this crap shoot? And, how do you play any day-to-day trading when you have 2 IFTs.

I think we have to get to a point where we have two/three week trends - at the least. Trying to catch a one/two day bounce is extremely dangerous.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Perhaps we go up from here and don't look back. We've gapped up and are up nicely as I type this, but I would have preferred a total washout. I would have loved to see a panicky gap down with huge volume that then turned positive. But the market doesn't care what I want. Maybe we'll get some big volume either way--that would be good. But this gentle meandering just doesn't feel like a solid bottom.

 

[Steadygain]

Perhaps we go up from here and don't look back.

There's no way that going to happen

We've gapped up and are up nicely as I type this, but I would have preferred a total washout.

A TOTAL WASHOUT is what all of us would have wanted - BUT - the Markets don't work like that. Yet I'd say we're getting closer and closer to that kind of event.

Usually we'll have a series of smaller washouts...with a little lingering and volitilitiy (UPS and DOWNS) and just hope we play it right. But of course I'm not telling you anything as obviously you know what you're doing

I would have loved to see a panicky gap down with huge volume that then turned positive.

It's too early for that - as least on the level BOTH OF US are longing for. That would be the ideal and is the BEST all of us can hope for.

But the market doesn't care what I want.
Yet you seem to sense them pretty well

Maybe we'll get some big volume either way--that would be good. But this gentle meandering just doesn't feel like a solid bottom.

AMEN to that Brother ... a big AMEN

A solid BOTTOM can not be seen at this point... the water is too muddy.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Hey Steadygain,
Yeah, a lot of the signs that I watch seem to be saying that we're near an intermediate term bottom. But the complacency as shown in put/call ratios and in the VIX (among others) is very troubling to me. I sure hope we start going up from here. I'm an optimist--I don't like being bearish. I want to be as bullish as guys like Birchtree. And I definitely want to be long in the market. I'm just not sure I want to be long right now.
Blessings,
Jeff

 

[ContrarianJeff]

FWIW--this morning, I moved from 100% G fund to 50% I, 25% S, and 25% C. I've been waiting to see some large buying interest before moving into stocks, and it looks like we're getting that this morning. I'm hoping that this will be just the beginning of a significant rally. If we fade, it could get ugly, but I'm willing to risk it. That's because most of the signs I watch indicate that we should be near an intermediate term bottom. If so, this rally could take us to the 950-1050 range on the S&P500 over the next few months. I would have preferred to see big buying interest preceded by a huge gap down as opposed to a gap up. But as Mick says, you can't always get what you want.

 

[Steadygain]

I don't blame you in the least little bit...


THE THRONE IS YOURS


and staying in G - might just put you in 4th or 5th place.


Very good allocations - you are the KING

 

[Warrenlm]

this rally could take us to the 950-1050 range on the S&P500 over the next few months

That would require punching through quite few channel tops and resistance lines. I've seen 888 as a target and that looks too high. My 1.5cents

 

[kar_crazy]

But as Mick says, you can't always get what you want.[/quote]
hope we get what we need Aagh yeah

 

[ContrarianJeff]

That would require punching through quite few channel tops and resistance lines. I've seen 888 as a target and that looks too high. My 1.5cents

I completely agree that right now, it looks ridiculous. And you're right, we've got many, many resistance lines to go through (and if we do make it through them, it won't be in a straight line). I guess my thinking is that with a drop of 700 S&P points since this bear began, it would not be surprising to see a 50% retracement of that, which would put us around 1050 (if we rally near here). My understanding of market history is that during the worst bear markets, there are always violent rallies within the confines of those bears. At some point we're going to get one of those wicked moves up. The key question, though, is when. I sure hope it is soon.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

hope we get what we need Aagh yeah

Ha!:laugh:

 

[dannyboy]

Ha!:laugh:

Mr. Contrary?,
didn't get to the top by being humble?
He did use to be a lot higher up on the board recently?
I was going to jump in, even without Jeff, so may GOD have mercy and put both him and I at the top of the board? :blink:

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Two news items that could provide some much-needed rocket fuel for this market.

1) It looks like the uptick rule will be brought back, which would bring some confidence back to the markets and help prevent bear raids. The fact that it was removed after working effectively for 70 years is absolutely astounding.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQWwTSdLSybk&refer=home


2) A U.S. House Financial Services subcommittee plans a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules, which have been blamed for forcing banks to report billions of dollars in write-downs, a source briefed on the matter told Reuters on Wednesday. This could be a HUGE boost for the financials.

http://www.reuters.com/article/managementIssues/idUSN0454048120090304

 

[Steadygain]

Two news items that could provide some much-needed rocket fuel for this market.

1) It looks like the uptick rule will be brought back, which would bring some confidence back to the markets and help prevent bear raids. The fact that it was removed after working effectively for 70 years is absolutely astounding.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQWwTSdLSybk&refer=home


2) A U.S. House Financial Services subcommittee plans a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules, which have been blamed for forcing banks to report billions of dollars in write-downs, a source briefed on the matter told Reuters on Wednesday. This could be a HUGE boost for the financials.

http://www.reuters.com/article/managementIssues/idUSN0454048120090304

Lifting the Mark to Market Rule - will be the single biggest boost PEROID

The ones in charge want this to turn around fast and nothing would spur this upward drive more than that.

Humm.... my guess is they're waiting for the BEAR to take a break and looking for the Markets to start climbing...... to seize that momentum and push it even higher.

Wouldn't have made a lot of sense to have done this without waiting for the right timing...

GREAT POST - THANKS