ContrarianJeff's Account Talk

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I've been in G for a while. Moving to 100% C as of COB today. I think we may get a pop for a few days. If we remain under 1260 for any length of time, then I'll move back to G.
 
Moving back to 100% G from C. I'm hoping we get a little bounce today, but I think it's going to be short-lived. This market is going down. What scares me the most is that almost everyone I read believes that we will bottom at or around the July lows--that is, around 1175 to 1220. This is a mean bear that could take us down to 900 by the late fall. Financials have held up well lately, which makes it even scarier because they have a lot of air under their charts. Massive worldwide deflation is bringing everything down. This has all the earmarks of a depression, but the experts even deny that we're in a recession. Risk is really high.
 
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ContrarianJeff said:
Moving back to 100% G from C. I'm hoping we get a little bounce today, but I think it's going to be short-lived. This market is going down. What scares me the most is the almost everyone I read believes that we will bottom at or around the July lows--that is, around 1175 to 1220. This is a mean bear that could take us down to 900 by the late fall. Financials have held up well lately, which makes it even scarier because they have a lot of air under their charts. Massive worldwide deflation is bringing everything down. This has all the earmarks of a depression, but the experts even deny that we're in a recession. Risk is really high.
Click to expand...

I'm also thinking of selling 50% C that I bought yesterday, if we hold steady or up today. I am holding to my thesis of bad financial earnings later this month and October which will start another leg down. Question is, will be bounce before that happens? If I wait until 1256 to get out, then I am unscathed...but I'm not sure we can get there and sometimes you have to take your lumpms. It would have to happen next week...because the week after, we have Lehman, Discover, Goldman, Morgan Stanley reporting.

Being in the market right now is playing with fire. It sure is nice to get those rallies, but don't get too greedy.
 
Yep--be careful waiting on these rebound rallies. We will certainly have a big up day within the next week or so, but it looks like it's going to be surrounded by many down days--and some of them may be massive. This leg down has only just begun. The VIX just broke out of a down channel 3 days ago, and it's still relatively low. Rising VIX has continued on for at least a few weeks, and usually a couple of months, before market lows on capitulation. Recent rallies have been spurred on by action on the part of the Fed or Treasury, but I'm afraid they only have about 2 more bullets in their fix-it guns. And when the market realizes that there are no more fixes, look out below.
 
*&%$! *&%$! *&%$! *&%$! *&%$! *&%$! *&%$!

And to think i was gonna go 100F on Sep. 1st and wait until Friday to see if it was a good time to buy.

*&%$! *&%$! *&%$! *&%$! *&%$! *&%$! *&%$!

Well I'm not selling today. Maybe next week...hopefully at that time the fear will subside for a bit.
 
ContrarianJeff said:
Massive worldwide deflation is bringing everything down. This has all the earmarks of a depression, but the experts even deny that we're in a recession. Risk is really high.
Click to expand...
The experts do not deny that we're in a recession, in FEBRUARY they said all but ONE indicator showed the economy was in recession and headed for depression (that information is posted on the MB). The government spin machines deny it, and put pressure on the experts to avoid the "R" word. They aren't going to admit, or allow anyone to report RECESSION until we're in DEPRESSION. These are the same spinners who kept telling the sheep "the economy is just fine" 2006-2007 while this mess was unfolding - and they knew it. How to make the sheeple believe it? Just put the president up there and repeat "its just fine, its just fine, its just fine" and click his heels 3x.
 
luv2read said:
The experts do not deny that we're in a recession, in FEBRUARY they said all but ONE indicator showed the economy was in recession and headed for depression (that information is posted on the MB). The government spin machines deny it, and put pressure on the experts to avoid the "R" word. They aren't going to admit, or allow anyone to report RECESSION until we're in DEPRESSION. These are the same spinners who kept telling the sheep "the economy is just fine" 2006-2007 while this mess was unfolding - and they knew it. How to make the sheeple believe it? Just put the president up there and repeat "its just fine, its just fine, its just fine" and click his heels 3x.
Click to expand...

Yes,,,,I'm taking your Bull,,,,,,and your little dog too,,,,,my pretty ! :toung:
 
For what it's worth (not much, of course). . . . I'm moving from 100% G to 100% C. I think we've either hit an intermediate bottom, or we're really close. If 1100 doesn't hold, then I think 1080 or so will. All the indicators I follow say that we should be moving up shortly. I'm up over 6% on the year, and with the limits on IFT's, I don't want to get too cute trying to perfectly time the next move. (Being precise is a lot easier in my Etrade account. I put 100% of my funds in QLD (ultra-long Nasdaq 100) near the close yesterday, with a tight trailing stop.)

I think Congress will pass this bailout which will give at least temporary relief to the credit markets. And Fed watchers are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut. I actually think we'll get an emergency rate cut shortly after the House passes the bailout. Guys I respect on Minyanville agree--they're calling for a rate cut to provide rocket fuel for a rally. I'm guessing that we will get a 15% or so rally during the 4th quarter. So I'm going all in right now for the intermediate term. Long-term, I'm still bearish. I wouldn't be suprised if we ultimately hit 900 or lower on the S&P, but I don't think that will happen until well into 2009.
 
I am trying to decide whether to follow you and go 100C or 50G and 50C. Right now I am at 80 L1040 and 20I. I guess that didn't make too much sense. It would have made sense to stay out of the L funds altogether and continue to manage on my own. It was just that some federal people came to speak to us awhile aback and pushed the L funds like crazy. So I put most in L1040 and didn't check up on things the way I used to. I wish I hadn't listened. Now I am afraid that if I move out of I and L1040, I will miss on any upswing. :confused:
 
Hey Juliebeb,
Well, the good thing for you about the L funds so far is that they haven't lost as much as the C, S or I. Still, I know it's not much comfort comparing relative losses when you've taken a hit. As I said, for me, the risk/reward weighs heavily in favor of me getting back into the markets right now. But I certainly understand your reluctance. And honestly, if you're not going to work really hard at studying the markets and keeping up with you accounts, I would advise just leaving them alone at this point. Sadly, I've seen a lot of folks pull their money out of stocks precisely at the market bottom. As a result, they get all the losses and none of the gains. Be patient and hang in there.
 
Those are my present thoughts. On September 30th, I jumped out, but everyone told me not to move to hastily, so I got into my previous positions. I thought that I had made the change back in time to still have two trades available for October. But I didn't know about the 12:00 deadline. I really haven't traded much since this two trades per month deal. In any case, I only have on trade left for this month, so I want to be judicious. I am trying to study the IFT moves of other members. . . .
 
juliebeb said:
In any case, I only have on trade left for this month, so I want to be judicious. I am trying to study the IFT moves of other members. . . .
Click to expand...

Julie, if you want to be judicious, maybe best not to study moves of other members....might be better to study something else.....well, for sure do not study my moves!
 
Juliebeb

Re: only having one trade left this month. Remember, you can always move back to the G fund even after you've used up your two monthly IFTs
 
I am still in this C vs I fund dilemma. I am thinking to go 100% one or the other on Monday. Nobody is talking much about S right now it seems.

Can you transfer part back into G after your two IFTs? For your 3rd IFT, my only choice would be to move everything into G? Or can I put some here, and some there, and then move some percentage into G? And then move a greater percentage into G if things aren't lookng good?

I am not trying to put anyone on the spot with these questions about fund choices. It is just that following my own counsel led me into these dire straits.:worried:
 
Thank you. That answered my question. I wish I had known about the 12:15 deadline before I made a change on the afternoon of Sept. 30th. Just think how much I am learning. Of course, my work is sitting on my desk untouched. . . .
 
Of course, I am still debating on the C, S, or I question given the current state of the market. Anybody want to weigh in on that?
 
juliebeb said:
I am still in this C vs I fund dilemma. I am thinking to go 100% one or the other on Monday. Nobody is talking much about S right now it seems.

Can you transfer part back into G after your two IFTs? For your 3rd IFT, my only choice would be to move everything into G? Or can I put some here, and some there, and then move some percentage into G? And then move a greater percentage into G if things aren't lookng good?

I am not trying to put anyone on the spot with these questions about fund choices. It is just that following my own counsel led me into these dire straits.:worried:
Click to expand...

you don't have to move ALL into G on your 3rd IFT. You can also round up to the next whole number % on the equity and F funds. I.e., 24.2% in C fund can be rounded up to 25%. You will only be able to do that every other day as you will have all whole number %s the next day. This small strategy doesn't really amount to much, but it does keep your head in the game.:)

As a beginner trying to get a feel for the TSP, and it appears you are interested in experimenting, I suggest being very conservative in the equity funds, maybe 60 G, 10 F, 10 C, 10 S, 10 I, until you get a little more comfortable with it all.
 
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