ContrarianJeff's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Patience and humility are good things to remember.
That is the meaning behind my signature line.

But, I have noticed you moving rather rapidly up the Amway Ladder. Going Diamond Club again. Soon you will zoom right past me as I wallow in an allocation with 70% sitting on the Lilly Pads... Yuck, but things just don't feel right...

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Yuck, but things just don't feel right...

Actually, I agree. I guess I'm staying in the market because I continue to see skepticism about this rally. For example, although we are near multi-year highs (and in some cases all time highs), 55% of the folks on the TSP tracker are in bonds or cash right now. And given that they are on the tracker to begin with, I assume that these are people who actively manage their accounts and are typically very aggressive in betting on stocks. That fact alone is pretty amazing. Who knows--maybe the TSP Talkers are becoming the smart money and a large drop is about to take place? On the other hand, maybe stocks in Europe will clear resistance and take off? (The EFA just rose above its May 2011 high.) That scenario seems virtually impossible to me, but the fact that I don't hear anyone suggesting it (except the Point & Figure chart on EFA) makes me think that it is possible. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

 

[JamesE]

Nice to see you around again Jeff.

With this rally getting to be about 6 months old now, I think there's a lot of folks with their finger on the sell button. You can always tell because just a whiff of bad news and the markets drop like a stone. I've been noticing that lately. However, I just don't see the market tanking four Mays in a row. As soon as something becomes a pattern, just like that, it's not.

 

[Show-me]

You said it!!! I feel exactly the same, which is why I bailed completely out of the I fund, but salted a small portion in the C fund thinking any movement will be more buffered there and I will still have some exposure to the market for the end/beginning of the month rally.

Actually, I agree. I guess I'm staying in the market because I continue to see skepticism about this rally. For example, although we are near multi-year highs (and in some cases all time highs), 55% of the folks on the TSP tracker are in bonds or cash right now. And given that they are on the tracker to begin with, I assume that these are people who actively manage their accounts and are typically very aggressive in betting on stocks. That fact alone is pretty amazing. Who knows--maybe the TSP Talkers are becoming the smart money and a large drop is about to take place? On the other hand, maybe stocks in Europe will clear resistance and take off? (The EFA just rose above its May 2011 high.) That scenario seems virtually impossible to me, but the fact that I don't hear anyone suggesting it (except the Point & Figure chart on EFA) makes me think that it is possible. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

 

[Mcqlives]

On the other hand, maybe stocks in Europe will clear resistance and take off? (The EFA just rose above its May 2011 high.) That scenario seems virtually impossible to me, but the fact that I don't hear anyone suggesting it (except the Point & Figure chart on EFA) makes me think that it is possible. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

And here I am thinking of putting money in the I today...

 

[NiteFlyer]

And here I am thinking of putting money in the I today...

I moved back to the I-fund earlier this month... I am as happy as BT in Pamplona in early July. I had slipped to lower than 100 with a bad move out of and back into the S-fund that dropped me about 2%. The I has pulled be back to the top 10 <fingers crossed>.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

The I has pulled be back to the top 10 <fingers crossed>.

Congratulations! Nice move. The I fund is looking strong again today.

 

[rcknfrewld]

has it been four months already...eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...
this is your alarm clock going off, don't even reach for the snooze button...on your feet
wouldn't going all F be the true contrarian play...everyone and their brother is bad mouthing bonds and for the first time in years it's in the red...tell me all your thoughts and leave nothing out

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Just saw your post--it looks like you may have been right about a bottom, or at least a short term bottom, in bonds. The F fund is up nicely since your comment and it looks like AGG has found support at the 105.50 to 106 range. Also, if you look on the chart, the PPO has curled up and is making higher lows even as AGG has put in what looks like a double bottom.
Gallery View - StockCharts.com - Free Charts

If the crisis in Syria forces the Fed to continue buying bonds, then the F fund may rally. However, long term, the chart on bonds still looks really weak. As far as whether bonds are a good contrarian play, I checked the sentiment indicators on bonds from Sentimentrader, and they are not at extremes. They're kind of in the middle. All this suggests to me that bonds will outperform stocks over the intermediate term, but that might not amount to much.

 

[jonfresno]

OK, so as I cut in front of rcknfrwld, just wanted to here your thoughts on the market. My take - it really seems the QE stuff has thrown some really good investing strategies for a loop. Even during a few of the more recent buy-and-hold years where certain timing methods did well, it seemed that this was a pretty rough year.

Are thoughts on your plan for 2014? Every time I think of sticking it out, I feel the market is just too high, then it goes higher.

Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

 

[Boghie]

Our Contrarian has been silent.

But, his trading activity (if it is still accurate) emphasizes that both bonds and equities are frothy. Concur with bonds, and am starting to worry about equities.

But, me thinks the 'I Fund' is undervalued. Love BTs allocation - but I don't have his crystal ball and I don't have his sticky pants and I don't have his asset base. So, I might migrate a bit more to the 'I Fund' and a bit more to the Lilly Pad. But, who knows:worried:

Wish ContrarianJeff would espouse on the situation...

 

[Boghie]

Oh Contrair' where art thou...

Your opinions - right or wrong - have value. And, not just the financial...

 

[Cactus]

I see you just moved 30% into F after being in G for over a year. Welcome back to the AT before getting kicked off for inactivity.

 

[Boghie]

Nice hidden move ContrarianJeff...

Am I your marker:embarrest:? I use Amoeba myself:laugh:.