ContrarianJeff's Account Talk

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I'm reading it another way - they way I've always seemed to lose money with:nuts:.

I don't think the market is in control of the market. I think it will be moved around by external forces. I just don't want to be in the washing machine. I'm going to let is wash out.
 
Nice read Contrarian.

I should never read the market based on politics. It has never been a winner for me. Only made about 1/3rd the return of the 'C Fund'.
 
Thanks. My current allocation is close to yours now--25% equities, 75% bonds and cash. I think risk is a little elevated here. I'm wondering if we are going to get a "sell the news" situation when the Dems and Reps eventually compromise (and kick the can further down the road).
 
Birchtree said:
Your avatar looks familiar - not from somewhere up around Dillard by any chance.
Click to expand...

Actually, it's a stock photo. I'm not sure where it's from. But you and I are thinking alike. I chose the photo because to me, it looks just like 2 places in North Georgia that our family enjoys--Smithgall Woods and a little valley near Tiger. And as you know, Tiger is a stone's throw from Dillard. Beautiful area, isn't it.
 
Have enjoyed reading your previous posts...good insight...any current thoughts on the market...I'm also in bonds thinking that the market is topping out...hoping for a correction to jump back in
 
I second that, let's hear from someone who's had four consecutive years with +20% returns. There's no one else on the tracker with those results.
 
he's the guy i followed for the past couple years and it served me well. would like to see what he thinks about the market :)
 
I think he's trapped in the future with a broken flux capacitor. Don't know when we'll here from him, but we will. :cool:
 
Hey guys--I apologize for not logging in and commenting lately. To be honest, the 2 IFT's per month keeps me more focused on my trading account than my TSP.

My thoughts about the market? I think my results from this year make it clear that I have no idea what the market is going to do! A market like this is where "contrarians" like myself get crushed by the buy and holders. I backed out of equities a long time ago because sentiment kept rising, but the market just kept grinding higher with no let up in sight. And then the strangest thing happened--sentiment began to get more bearish even as the market went higher. I don't recall ever seeing that on such an extended basis. I'm in the market now because a number of sentiment indicators are showing continued pessimism, especially the AAII (as well as TSP sentiment and Ocean's List). Also, it seems that most of the writers that I read are expecting the market to roll over. All of this looks bullish to me. On the other hand, I've seen indicators showing that Nasdaq sentiment among newsletters is very bullish. And to top it off, Barrons recently published a very bullish cover. The contrarian bears are loving that because they see it as a sign that the market has topped. All this makes it very confusing for me. A couple of things I've learned through this dry spell is that the trend really is your friend, and that fighting the Fed really is a bad idea. I know--those cliches are profound, huh?

I got long a couple of days ago for a purely technical reason--it appeared that the SPX was going to bounce off of a rising Keltner channel (see the 3rd chart down here -- // www.TTheory.com Public Chart List // - Terrence Laundry - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com ). Figured it was worth a shot. Sorry I can't be of more help.

I will say this: patience and humility are always good things for me to learn, and I know that God cares a lot more about my character than my retirement account. So, as I seek to honor Christ, I hope that my character is improving even as my spot on the autotracker keeps falling. :) And seriously, I'm very happy for my buy and hold friends and family who are doing well right now. They are being rewarded handsomely for hanging in there, and that's fantastic.
 
ContrarianJeff said:
I will say this: patience and humility are always good things for me to learn, and I know that God cares a lot more about my character than my retirement account. So, as I seek to honor Christ, I hope that my character is improving even as my spot on the autotracker keeps falling. :) And seriously, I'm very happy for my buy and hold friends and family who are doing well right now. They are being rewarded handsomely for hanging in there, and that's fantastic.
Click to expand...

Amen
 
ContrarianJeff said:
I got long a couple of days ago for a purely technical reason--it appeared that the SPX was going to bounce off of a rising Keltner channel (see the 3rd chart down here -- // [url]www.TTheory.com Public Chart List // - Terrence Laundry - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com[/URL] ). Figured it was worth a shot. Sorry I can't be of more help.
Click to expand...
Nice chart. I did not know about Keltner channels. Will have to check it out on investupidea. Thanks - it's always an education around here!
 
Good to hear from you...ill drag you out in another 4 months to see whether or not you catch a glimpse of your shadow:cheesy:
 
ContrarianJeff said:
I will say this: patience and humility are always good things for me to learn, and I know that God cares a lot more about my character than my retirement account. So, as I seek to honor Christ, I hope that my character is improving even as my spot on the autotracker keeps falling. :) And seriously, I'm very happy for my buy and hold friends and family who are doing well right now. They are being rewarded handsomely for hanging in there, and that's fantastic.
Click to expand...

Amen!
 
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