clester's Account Talk

[clester]

looks like a clean breakout on the S fund. At some point soon we could re-test the breakout point. That is not unusual.

 

[clester]

Since Facebook is the S funds largest holding (1%) I'm hoping for good earnings from them today. Lots of news out this week. Who knows how that will affect the markets but the trend is up and still no sell signals or warnings in my system.

I think we are back to bad news is good news (more Fed) and good news is good news (we are not falling apart )

 

[clester]

It feels like profit taking and some selling on the economic numbers this morning. It's disconcerting that small caps are taking the brunt of selling but they have also been up the most. This happened last month too. Hope it's just a one day thing. Sell stop is the 50 dma.

 

[clester]

It feels like profit taking and some selling on the economic numbers this morning. It's disconcerting that small caps are taking the brunt of selling but they have also been up the most. This happened last month too. Hope it's just a one day thing. Sell stop is the 50 dma.

The $tran and $rut hit their 50 dma today and bounced a little. It's interesting that the are following each other so closely. Will buyers come in at the 50 dma? It could be an early indicator of the markets breaking down.

 

[clester]

Well, looks like sell in May is alive and well. This seems eerily close to how last month and last few years have gone. The spring swoon.

I still don't have a sell signal though. Another day like this would do it. Watch the 50 dma.

 

[nasa1974]

Well, looks like sell in May is alive and well. This seems eerily close to how last month and last few years have gone. The spring swoon.

I still don't have a sell signal though. Another day like this would do it. Watch the 50 dma.

Today is going to hurt. Last year we got teased a little before May clobbered us.

 

[Birchtree]

The market is just teasing the bears. Many observers of this rally are still perplexed. Just the way it's supposed to happen.

 

[clester]

Even with today I am still slightly positive since my last entry. I'm glad I had the cushion. Many times I have gotten hit like this on the first day in. That really sucks.

Today is a day to keep you emotions in check. Especially if your in S fund(-1.75%). Find a sell stop and stick to it.

 

[clester]

Even with today I am still slightly positive since my last entry. I'm glad I had the cushion. Many times I have gotten hit like this on the first day in. That really sucks.

Today is a day to keep you emotions in check. Especially if your in S fund(-1.75%). Find a sell stop and stick to it.

Great bounce today. Right on time. The $RUT and $TRAN have regained their 50 dma and S and C funds still look good. On the look out for this being a bounce before we go lower. We need to move back up to new highs from here to keep the trend alive.

 

[Birchtree]

The clover is in bloom - it might stay in bloom the whole summer.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Great bounce today. Right on time. The $RUT and $TRAN have regained their 50 dma and S and C funds still look good. On the look out for this being a bounce before we go lower. We need to move back up to new highs from here to keep the trend alive.

Could be a dead cat bounce.

 

[Birchtree]

No dead cat bounce - we may take out SPX 1600 before the day ends. In my view the risk of not being in the market now exceeds the magnitude of the risk of being in the market.

 

[clester]

Could be a dead cat bounce.

as good as the rebound is the cat may be on a trampoline!

 

[JimmyJoe]

No dead cat bounce - we may take out SPX 1600 before the day ends. In my view the risk of not being in the market now exceeds the magnitude of the risk of being in the market.

Maybe today is the day for the SPX to reach 1600. That'll be nice.

 

[jkenjohnson]

as good as the rebound is the cat may be on a trampoline!

He's on steroids.

 

[JamesE]

The question now is what will the jobs numbers come in at tomorrow... How many times have we seen this routine? Run it up into Friday and sell it hard when the number disappoints. Gonna take a good number though, two consecutive months with bad numbers and the "boyz" are gonna jam it. We shall see.

P.S. I'm not giving up just yet, this run is getting "long in the tooth" but I think it'll print 1620-1640 before it corrects.

 

[clester]

Well, my spring thesis is still doing OK but we are in the critically month. Even with the bad day wednesday I have no sell signals.

Every thing is still a go. I will be watching $rut and $tran for clues as to market direction. They both dipped below their 50 dma and immediately regained them. I don't use upside targets but I think we could get another 5-10% by July if my thesis holds and then we start to sell off.

As long as we stay above 50dma and not overbought or sentiment doesnt get too high then I'm on a buy. We are in a bull market and their has to be a bias to be in stocks.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Well, my spring thesis is still doing OK but we are in the critically month. Even with the bad day wednesday I have no sell signals.

Every thing is still a go. I will be watching $rut and $tran for clues as to market direction. They both dipped below their 50 dma and immediately regained them. I don't use upside targets but I think we could get another 5-10% by July if my thesis holds and then we start to sell off.


As long as we stay above 50dma and not overbought or sentiment doesnt get too high then I'm on a buy. We are in a bull market and their has to be a bias to be in stocks.

That crystal ball is ready to sell to the masses. Looks like the gravy train is full speed ahead.

 

[clester]

That crystal ball is ready to sell to the masses. Looks like the gravy train is full speed ahead.

Thanks Ken. It's doing well. The good thing is that we spent a while is consolidation and worked off all the overbought indications and built a little bearish attitude. We are still in good shape for a while now. Ready for 1700 this summer?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Thanks Ken. It's doing well. The good thing is that we spent a while is consolidation and worked off all the overbought indications and built a little bearish attitude. We are still in good shape for a while now. Ready for 1700 this summer?

That would be nice. I just don't want to enter here. I am waiting for a pullback.