clester's Account Talk

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Well, made it back to Tennessee. Good family fun.

The markets are still in a holding pattern. Seems the boring trade will continue. Waiting on the German vote? Who knows. Anyway, I'm in and will be until my stop gets hit around 686 on $emw (S fund)
 
I was busy today doing my physics homework. Equations of motion using differential equations. One was a computer program to calculate and plot a function in Matlab language (aka numerical analysis). Fun, really :)

Didn't get to watch the markets but looks like some wild swings finally. S fund had a good day. Still looking for 720 on $emw. Some big news events coming up in a couple weeks. It will be entertaining to watch. Maybe I'll hit my target by then and I can get out...
 
Looks like the S&P will test that 1397 ish area again. It has been strong support. Looks like its tested it about 13 times since it got above there. If it breaks then we may have trouble.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Thought you might be interested in this.

More bad news
Click to expand...
Yeah, news is driving this market..good and bad. Insiders could be selling for many reasons though. I wouldn't weigh this to heavily but it is a headwind. They could turn around and buy anytime. It may be more of an indicator for specific stocks than the total market. I don't know.

All I know is that I'm above my sell stop. :)
 
Futures up this morning on the Europe hopes. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Volatility has picked up. My system is still on a buy and if we close above 700 on $emw (s fund) I may move my sell stop up. Technicals, sentiment, and all my indicators are looking good. Also, F fund has a double top and should fall some from here.

Lots of news today and tomorrow. Drahgi, jobs reports etc.
 
clester said:
Futures up this morning on the Europe hopes. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Volatility has picked up. My system is still on a buy and if we close above 700 on $emw (s fund) I may move my sell stop up. Technicals, sentiment, and all my indicators are looking good. Also, F fund has a double top and should fall some from here.

Lots of news today and tomorrow. Drahgi, jobs reports etc.
Click to expand...

You're starting to sound like Birchtree. :D I'm still in the G and waiting for a pullback. I did pick up 3% and 2% for July and August. Not great, but I'll take it.
 
jkenjohnson said:
You're starting to sound like Birchtree. :D I'm still in the G and waiting for a pullback. I did pick up 3% and 2% for July and August. Not great, but I'll take it.
Click to expand...
Nothing to sneeze at. I would've taken it. That's awesome.

I expect a test of todays breakout on S fund at some point. S&p needs to breakout or it's a triple top. It needs a close above 1424 or so. F fund getting hammered.
 
clester said:
Nothing to sneeze at. I would've taken it. That's awesome.

I expect a test of todays breakout on S fund at some point. S&p needs to breakout or it's a triple top. It needs a close above 1424 or so. F fund getting hammered.
Click to expand...
Wow, we got there already but can we close above it. In the past I have gotten out when S&P trades over 20 points up or down. I think though I may reconsider when it's up because it usually continues for a day or two more. $Emw has RSI of about 69 and I plan to sell above 70 which would happen if we get a couple of days follow through.
 
clester said:
Wow, we got there already but can we close above it. In the past I have gotten out when S&P trades over 20 points up or down. I think though I may reconsider when it's up because it usually continues for a day or two more. $Emw has RSI of about 69 and I plan to sell above 70 which would happen if we get a couple of days follow through.
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RSI on $emw is at 70 and my price target was 720-730. Getting close to time to lighten up. RSI of 80 is a definite sell signal. 70 is red flag and gets me cautious. May sell some tomorrow if we're up.
 
clester said:
RSI on $emw is at 70 and my price target was 720-730. Getting close to time to lighten up. RSI of 80 is a definite sell signal. 70 is red flag and gets me cautious. May sell some tomorrow if we're up.
Click to expand...
Looks like a little follow trough today. S&P still has some room on RSI to run. $Emw is just over 70 and Efa needs to get over 53 to break out. Agg will falling from its double top and 10 year will prob test it's recent high yield around 1.85 or so.

Top of trend line is about 720 on S fund $(emw). Stocks are above 50 and 200 day moving averages and sentiment still negative. So, only the RSI is flashing a warning and will trigger a short term sell today or next week.
 
clester said:
Looks like a little follow trough today. S&P still has some room on RSI to run. $Emw is just over 70 and Efa needs to get over 53 to break out. Agg will falling from its double top and 10 year will prob test it's recent high yield around 1.85 or so.

Top of trend line is about 720 on S fund $(emw). Stocks are above 50 and 200 day moving averages and sentiment still negative. So, only the RSI is flashing a warning and will trigger a short term sell today or next week.
Click to expand...

I wish I had been vested yesterday! I think we are approaching overbought conditions now.
 
jkenjohnson said:
I wish I had been vested yesterday! I think we are approaching overbought conditions now.
Click to expand...
Efa has opened up 2 gaps now and has more lower. It usually fills those but not always. So, I think it is nearing a pullback and so is S fund. If I do get out I think it will be short term and I plan on buying dips.
 
clester said:
Efa has opened up 2 gaps now and has more lower. It usually fills those but not always. So, I think it is nearing a pullback and so is S fund. If I do get out I think it will be short term and I plan on buying dips.
Click to expand...
Took my profit. I still expect to re-enter soon. Still have a trade in my pocket.
 
clester said:
Took my profit. I still expect to re-enter soon. Still have a trade in my pocket.
Click to expand...
The RSI on the S fund went over 70 for a second day. I've found that usually (but not always) stocks have a pullback pretty soon after that. My target was about 720 ( a previous high and possible double top area as well as the top of the current trend line) and we almost got there. So, those two things made my decision. I am still bullish as long as we are above 50 dma though so I plan on buying a dip. That timing may be hard. I will be eyeing the I fund because as we get closer to the fiscal cliff and Europe gets past it's panic it will probably start to outperform again.
 
clester said:
The RSI on the S fund went over 70 for a second day. I've found that usually (but not always) stocks have a pullback pretty soon after that. My target was about 720 ( a previous high and possible double top area as well as the top of the current trend line) and we almost got there. So, those two things made my decision. I am still bullish as long as we are above 50 dma though so I plan on buying a dip. That timing may be hard. I will be eyeing the I fund because as we get closer to the fiscal cliff and Europe gets past it's panic it will probably start to outperform again.
Click to expand...

I'm seeing some overbought signals myself, I'd be hard-pressed not take an exit this monday after having rode this last thrust, but lookin for a pullback has been difficult for me with these market conditions.
 
JTH said:
I'm seeing some overbought signals myself, I'd be hard-pressed not take an exit this monday after having rode this last thrust, but lookin for a pullback has been difficult for me with these market conditions.
Click to expand...
Yes it has. Timing the trades has been hard.
 
What's your opinion of the outcome of the Fed meeting this week? Has the market already priced in QE3, or will we see a spike if it is announced? I think they will pull the trigger due to the disappointing jobs report and political pressures to get some action going prior to the election. I pulled 60% off the table a couple weeks ago, and I'm thinking of jumping back in to catch the wave. But here we have others pulling out. Definitely hard to time moves these days.
 
tomcat22 said:
What's your opinion of the outcome of the Fed meeting this week? Has the market already priced in QE3, or will we see a spike if it is announced? I think they will pull the trigger due to the disappointing jobs report and political pressures to get some action going prior to the election. I pulled 60% off the table a couple weeks ago, and I'm thinking of jumping back in to catch the wave. But here we have others pulling out. Definitely hard to time moves these days.
Click to expand...

Yeah, what does the old crystal ball say this morning? :)
 
jkenjohnson said:
Yeah, what does the old crystal ball say this morning? :)
Click to expand...
Haha. Well let me take a look. Hmmmm... Yes.. I see a flat market to a little sell off over the next few days, perhaps for the week.

Tomcat: I think QE3 is priced in as well as the German court ruling going through. The risk is to the downside if these things don't pan out. If we get a drop it will probably be a buying opportunity but our election and fiscal cliff will begin to come in to focus soon. You can't really play the headlines IMO. Just watch the technicals. The S fund is in an overbought area and S&P is close as well as I fund (according to RSI and bollinger bands readings). F fund is near a double top and should sell off soon too. Maybe that means QE won't come through? Dunno.
 
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