clester's Account Talk

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WhoDey said:
I was hoping for a holiday boost this week and dipped my toe in the C and S pools (25% each ... remainder in F). I ended up in positive territory, but I didn't have the stomach for the strange way (at least to me) that the markets seem to be moving and made my exit. Strong open one day only to see the gains lost over the course of the day. Weak open the next only to see the indices recover by day's end.

If we are in a period of choppy action, how does one play the funds? I'm okay with a market trending either up or down, but this choppiness makes me feel like I'm taking a shot in the dark every time I make a move. And I've learned that I don't have the nerves for such gambles!
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Well for me it depends on the situation. A big reason I went in this time was the RSI indicator. It rarely gets above 70 or below 30. But when it does it usually reverses. Also, I was waiting for a bounce first. I don't try to guess the bottom. One thing this does is give you a reference point. If we went below the bounce point I was out. You limit your losses this way if it doesn't work out.
 
Actually, it looks like some resistance could come in at 678 or so on $EMW. Where the last couple of drops stopped.
 
This is a completely discouraging day. An absolutely dismal day. The strength of the bears is totally there thanks to the Euro. An utterly sisyphean day. I have low expectations for the remaining hour of the day. Drat. Grrr!
 
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polarbear said:
This is a completely discouraging day. An absolutely dismal day. The strength of the bears is totally there thanks to the Euro. An utterly sisyphean day. I have low expectations for the remaining hour of the day. Drat. Grrr!
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IMO, this anxiety is why we won't go lower. Sentiment is terrible. And this is the worst the bears can do?
 
Thanks, guys. Yesterday was grueling, and today, after it, was a bear, it was enervating. I kinda expected a short covering at the end, but that vertical spike up was a surprise. (As of cob May 22, 100% S fund too, just like you, clester.) Thanks.

The proxy for the S Fund that I use is ^DWCPF, The Dow Completion Index.
 
polarbear said:
Thanks, guys. Yesterday was grueling, and today, after it, was a bear, it was enervating. I kinda expected a short covering at the end, but that vertical spike up was a surprise. (As of cob May 22, 100% S fund too, just like you, clester.) Thanks.

The proxy for the S Fund that I use is ^DWCPF, The Dow Completion Index.
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Things could always turn south. That's why, IMHO, you should always pick an exit point and stick to it. A lot of folks refuse to sell and take a loss. My experience is that usually it usually gets worse and your psyche gets hit, as well as your retirement fund. Always have in mind a stop loss value where you will sell.
 
Nice big rally today. My target is the 50 dma. I expect some resistance at 678 on $emw and then at 50 dma. The reaction at the 50 dma will dictate my next move. My gut is saying to get out by the end of the month which is Thursday.
 
clester said:
Nice big rally today. My target is the 50 dma. I expect some resistance at 678 on $emw and then at 50 dma. The reaction at the 50 dma will dictate my next move. My gut is saying to get out by the end of the month which is Thursday.
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Found out I didn't follow through on tsp.gov to make transfer to S fund last week. So, to get my account here in line I will go 100% G fund today. We are getting close to resistance and my gut feeling says it may be time to get out anyway.
 
clester said:
Downturn looks to continue from here maybe test 200 dma again. My gut says we may bust it this time.
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Looks like this is coming true. Unfortunately. The jobs data is disappointing. I have 2 kids who are getting out of college soon who need jobs. My oldest is going back to school for graduate school. Hope things get better by then.

Im looking for another bounce soon. The RSI for F fund is over 70 and the RSI for S fund is nearing the 30 level again. It may need to hit 20 first. That bodes well for a short term bounce. Although, with EU situation and our elections things will probably get worse. lets hope not.
 
ATCHUNTman said:
Hope for a bounce and soon! Thoughts on QE3 from the fed??
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I bet we will get something. Although, the economy is bad, I wonder if it is bad enough? QE hasn't helped much so far. It has helped the stock market though.

There is just so much going on right now. Europe, china slowing, and our elections with the so caled fiscal cliff coming.
Be careful and fasten your seat belt.
 
I think we are still a day or 2 from a bounce. When we do bounce it will probably be like last time. Big pop for a few days.

Timing that will be tough with our delay in trading. I'm thinking mid June for a bottom with a bounce somewhere before then.
 
clester said:
I think we are still a day or 2 from a bounce. When we do bounce it will probably be like last time. Big pop for a few days.

Timing that will be tough with our delay in trading. I'm thinking mid June for a bottom with a bounce somewhere before then.
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I agree but a tough one to time. I'm beginning to like the "F" more and more, thinking about the "G" when it starts bouncing back up that way I would be able to get back in if it continues up without taking the "F" losses on the way.
 
Well, we have to be getting close to another bounce. Indicators suggest it. One problem is that so many people are also predicting it. They want to pick the bottom. That means, to me as a contrarian, that if we do bounce it may be short lived.

So, one could try to play a bounce for a couple of days. Problem there is timing it right and then being out of trades for the rest of the month.

Bottom line is that I don't think it's time to buy yet. It would be a gamble I think.
 
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