clester's Account Talk

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ATCHUNTman said:
Thanks for your posts, I look forward to reading what your thoughts on the market are!
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Just take them with a grain of salt. I'm no market genius. Just my own opinions from my experience.

But you know that. :)

One other point. Whenever there are huge moves (like more than 20 points on s and p) I get out of the market. It makes it too risky to guess the direction. Another reason to stay put for now.
 
This morning I'm watching the EFA or I fund and $tran for clues on where the market is headed. Efa has a gap to fill (around 46.5 I think). S and p needs to hold the 1292 area. If that happens and Efa fills the gap I may dip my toes back in.
 
Those are the general targets I'm watching also for a possible entry into equities. I'm currently sitting at 50G/50F and have two IFTs burning a hole in my pocket. I'm trying to be disciplined and resist the urge to use an IFT the final week of June just because I don't want them to go to "waste". If the timing is right, I'll make a move ... if not, I'll just stay put.
 
For what it's worth, I am anticipating a buy signal tonight, I just sold my short positions (TZA) and bought long (TNA). I think the market is oversold now.
 
jkenjohnson said:
For what it's worth, I am anticipating a buy signal tonight, I just sold my short positions (TZA) and bought long (TNA). I think the market is oversold now.
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Just be careful buying on a big down day. It can turn into several more. Also, holding in a big downtrend waiting for a bounce can be expensive. I've done both and it's no fun. Have a price in mind to sell on the way down and stick to it!

My experience has been when there is a move over 20 points in S &P it's good to get out and let things settle down.
So, I expect to be in F for this week. Just remember how bad things got in 08. It could happen again. Fwiw, I would be cautious.
 
Everything seems to be stuck in neutral. The market doesn't know what to do. Maybe we're building a bottom. I sense things are settling down even though we have had several days over 20 points up or down in s&p.

If we could bounce off a major level like the 200 dma or 1266-1292 range I would be more inclined to buy. But not yet.
 
EFA still has a gap to fill about 46.5 which I expect to get filled soon. After that I will start looking at stocks.
 
I made a short in-and-out visit to the I fund this week (50% exposure). When I stretched the index out a few years, I could see several times where the index fell to about 46.5 and then rebounded. Although, we weren't at exactly that level, I thought it close enough given the fact that the EU would be meeting this week ... I thought the sentiment would be positive and provide a bounce. I exited COB today, however, because I don't have confidence in the multiple week trend.

That said ... I'm learning a lesson in "Fair Value" ... yesterday's +0.65% gain was a -0.24 TSP loss ... we'll see what today brings. I'm thinking that the I fund is not set up for quick entry/exits.
 
nnuut said:
I think we will find out tomorrow when the Supreme Court rules on Obama Care.
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OK, so there'll be winners on both sides either way. My question is: which way, obummercare or no obummercare will make the markets rise? I'm inclined to think a repeal would let business owners breath a little easier, thus be free to hire more folks.
 
Karen Finerman, trader, reported in CNBC.com, thinksthe Sup.Ct. ruling will be a bullish catalyst any way it turns out, as it will relieve the uncertainty: News Headlines . Article: Stox should rally into quarter's end, by Lee Brodie. Also from this article:
Guy Adami: bullish short-term; Stephen Weiss: "I don't think the mkt is OK past the next few days, not at all."

The Italian 10-year bond did not seem to do too badly: Yield: from 6.20% it went down to 6.135%, see Italy ... Bonds 10 Year... in
bloomberg.com

From now on, I'm going to recognize days like Monday as a day to get in, and not waste a couple of days waking up and losing the opportunity to make money. I hope. We'll see.
 
polarbear said:
Karen Finerman, trader, reported in CNBC.com, thinksthe Sup.Ct. ruling will be a bullish catalyst any way it turns out, as it will relieve the uncertainty: News Headlines . Article: Stox should rally into quarter's end, by Lee Brodie. Also from this article:
Guy Adami: bullish short-term; Stephen Weiss: "I don't think the mkt is OK past the next few days, not at all."

The Italian 10-year bond did not seem to do too badly: Yield: from 6.20% it went down to 6.135%, see Italy ... Bonds 10 Year... in
bloomberg.com

From now on, I'm going to recognize days like Monday as a day to get in, and not waste a couple of days waking up and losing the opportunity to make money. I hope. We'll see.
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Could be we are rallying into the obamacare decision or the EU meetings tomorrow. The problem is, how do you know ahead of time what the market will rally on or sell off on. We can't. Not with our 2 trades.

Timing short term trades is almost impossible with tsp. it's either buy and hold or trade over weeks and months. I think you play the best odds which is why I look to indicators, charts and sentiment to give me clues. In other words, you need a plan. Not just buy because we sold off a little or sell because we had a short rally. This is not a day trading account.

Imho, you should be cautious and deliberate. The market will bite you just when you think you have it figured out.
 
Nothing today has changed the market dynamics. Still chopping around. I'm waiting on the Efa gap to get filled but I think July will be a better month. Let's see what next month holds. I don't foresee a move into markets untill after the jobs report next Friday although it is a Holiday week which may affect things.
 
Interesting day shaping up. Europe markets up 3 to 4%. This will create a huge gap up which will need to be filled and it usually does on this chart. We have had several pops like this that then get sold. Will this be different?

The idicators I use are pointing to a buy signal but I hate to buy a big pop. It would be nice to be in for the beginning of the month for a change.

Lets see how the morning goes.
 
Well, I can't buy the rally. We have had several moves over 20 points in s&p up and down which I have as a rule to stay out of the market. The huge gap up in Efa will need to get filled which it usually does within a month.

Looking back, the day the RSI on s&p went below 30 to near 20 was the time to buy. I missed it or didn't trust it. That will be a new rule for my system.
 
Bonds may be foretelling. The treasurie yields are down more than they were up Friday on the huge rally. This tells me that folks aren't buying the all clear sign that Friday suggested. Maybe it was just the traders that were short covering and no one was really buying are wanting to buy. So, the shorts will probably slowly get back into those positions. All this is just conjecture though.

We need the Efa to fill its gap and the s and p to test the 50 dma and bounce before I can get very bullish. Right now it's just a gamble. Stocks don't seem to want to sell off yet. They are stubbornly holding on to the gains. I keep hearing about light volume too. So, is that good or bad? I dunno but most investors are not trusting the market. It's a rigged system and the big guys are getting rich off us "retail investors " with insider trading info. IMHO.
 
All the things my system looks at are now bullish except for the gap in the EFA and Bonds which just hit a new high. So, if things don't get worse, I may buy very soon.
 
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