clester's Account Talk

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So, here's the way I see it now. The s&p has now back tested the 200 dma and S fund is almost there. The extreme RSI readings have abated. Two gaps on AGG have been filled. The stage has been set for possibly another leg down.

So, we will know soon which way it will go. Maybe tomorrow. IHMO it may be another week or so to make a good bottom. I am ready to make a move soon I think. I hope into stocks, but I will be patient.
 
That RSI signal was a buying op when it went below 30. But, now I have to wait on another signal.

One rule I have is to stay out of the market when you have s&p moves over 20 points up or down.

This appears to me to be a short covering rally. If so it will come back down.

Hard to see why any fund managers would be buying here with the headline risk. But they may know something we don't. They get insider info all the time.

My system indicators are still biased to staying out.
 
clester said:
That RSI signal was a buying op when it went below 30. But, now I have to wait on another signal.

One rule I have is to stay out of the market when you have s&p moves over 20 points up or down.

This appears to me to be a short covering rally. If so it will come back down.

Hard to see why any fund managers would be buying here with the headline risk. But they may know something we don't. They get insider info all the time.

My system indicators are still biased to staying out.
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See, I knew the big guys knew something before the rest of us. China rate cut, Spain's bond auction....


Thats why you need to follow the charts.

So, I am looking at the May 29 high to be taken out to confirm a new uptrend. If if does I will look to buy.
 
clester said:
See, I knew the big guys knew something before the rest of us. China rate cut, Spain's bond auction....


Thats why you need to follow the charts.

So, I am looking at the May 29 high to be taken out to confirm a new uptrend. If if does I will look to buy.
Click to expand...
The gaps on the AGG chart have been filled and now the EFA has two gaps. Efa is good at showing gaps and they usually get filled. This is a negative for stocks but it may take a while the fill those gaps.
 
clester said:
The gaps on the AGG chart have been filled and now the EFA has two gaps. Efa is good at showing gaps and they usually get filled. This is a negative for stocks but it may take a while the fill those gaps.
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Also a little worried about how positive sentiment has gotten. All it took was a three day rally and we all feel good again.

Psychology is an interesting science. Human behavior is predictable but changes with the wind on a moments notice. At least mine does. It seems like we are all lemmings sometimes. Advertisers and politIcians know it. They can easily brainwash us if the show us the same commercial enough times. There is some number of times that it takes to convince us of something even if we know it's wrong.

I just wish could learn to think on our own and not be swayed by others. I think most folks have pretty good intuition but don't trust themselves.

Anyway. Enough of that. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.
 
We had a reversal day June 4, which lead to our rally. Now we have another reversal day which means we may need to test the 1260-1280 level again. We do have a gap to fill on EFA lower.
 
clester said:
We had a reversal day June 4, which lead to our rally. Now we have another reversal day which means we may need to test the 1260-1280 level again. We do have a gap to fill on EFA lower.
Click to expand...
Wow, I thought this statement would be wrong with the news over the weekend. I thought we may have a breakout and I would move into stocks. Now, maybe the test of 1280 will come true. I think things will be cautious ahead of the Greek vote this weekend. Glad to see the F fund recoup some of last weeks loss.

I think I will have a buy on for next week depending on the news out of Greece. It's all about the headlines now. The Fed, Europe, China...

Not the best time to be a TSP investor. Huge swings up and down means I will not make many moves.
 
Very interesting day yesterday. Big drop at the end of the day. Today started up but is turning negative. It's shaping up to be a rough week. However, if our tracker is any indication, most people are already in bonds so any good news could spark a huge rally.

Problem is that the news out of Greece won't hit the market til Monday. If its a big sell off, it may be a good time to buy and if it's good news it may be a good time to buy. So, waiting and watching for Monday's action. Complicating things is Spain and now Italy bonds rates have jumped. All in all, I'm happy with F fund for now. I am surprised though that yields are up so far today.
 
Just noticed most everyone today that made transfers went to bonds. The top 150 or so are mostly in bonds.

That should be a buy from the contrarian standpoint.
 
Everything on the charts are basically in a neutral position including the indicators I use.

Sentiment is negative which makes me biased toward stocks. If the Fed quits buying bonds that is a negative for F fund.

I suppose a lot will ride on this weekend and Greece.

I will save my moves for next week. It should be a wild ride.
 
I think today and tomorrow trades traders will be putting themselves in a flat position. Could be some short covering or a sell off depending on what they need to do to get even.

I am considering on going to G fund for the weekend because if things turn out good this weekend F fund could sell off.

In any case I would expect a lot of volatility.
 
I have a feeling Greece will turn out ok this weekend. The problem is that doesn't solve anything. It just take worst case off the table for now. So, if stocks pop it will be short lived I think.

Since I'm in th F fund, I should stay there or go to G fund and just play the reaction. In other words go the opposite way of the reaction. I think I will go to G fund and plan on making another trade Monday depending on reaction.

Then I can enjoy my weekend and just be a spectator. It will be entertaining. :)
 
clester said:
I have a feeling Greece will turn out ok this weekend. The problem is that doesn't solve anything. It just take worst case off the table for now. So, if stocks pop it will be short lived I think.

Since I'm in th F fund, I should stay there or go to G fund and just play the reaction. In other words go the opposite way of the reaction. I think I will go to G fund and plan on making another trade Monday depending on reaction.

Then I can enjoy my weekend and just be a spectator. It will be entertaining. :)
Click to expand...

Trading on my feelings hasn't worked for me so far this year, so I IFT'd to G last night for peace of mind :)
 
The Greek election reaction and then reaction happened so fast that it's already over. Big pop overnight and now back to negative. The shorts will probably put their positions back on this week unless the Fed comes to the rescue.

In any case, F fund still looks like a good place to be for now. C fund broke the downtrend but doesn't look to hold it. S fund never broke out of its. Most indicators I use are neutral exept one and it's close to neutral.
 
Looking for a pull back for a possible entry into stocks. C fund looks better than S fund right now. The biggest concern I have is the 2 gap ups on the Efa chart. It it good at showing gaps and they usually get filled. if we can get a pullback to fill at least one of those I would feel better. S and C are right at the 50 dma. A major resistance level. If we get above them for a couple days it would trigger a buy. For now still holding F and doing better than G fund would have but not by much. Maybe operation twist extension will help us out.

So, cautiously optimistic but waiting.
 
ATCHUNTman said:
I joined you in the F Fund Tuesday evening...looking good today. Hope for an entry back into C/S soon.
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Good timing! The exact timing is hard for me. I'm usually early or late.

There is still a gap on the Efa chart that should be filled soon that is lower from here. S&P popped over the 200 dma and immediately went back under it. The S fund got right to it and fell. F fund is still,in uptrend. Indicators are mostly neutral.

I would love to see a test of the 1290 area on s and p to create a double bottom. On the other hand a couple days over the 200 dma would be nice.

Still stuck in neutral.
 
clester said:
Good timing! The exact timing is hard for me. I'm usually early or late.

There is still a gap on the Efa chart that should be filled soon that is lower from here. S&P popped over the 200 dma and immediately went back under it. The S fund got right to it and fell. F fund is still,in uptrend. Indicators are mostly neutral.

I would love to see a test of the 1290 area on s and p to create a double bottom. On the other hand a couple days over the 200 dma would be nice.

Still stuck in neutral.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your posts, I look forward to reading what your thoughts on the market are!
 
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