clester's Account Talk

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RealMoneyIssues said:
Um, we haven't been bouncing around to this point (look at any major index chart this year), what makes you think we will start now?
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There are many reasons for a pullback to happen. My system had a 50% sell a while back and if I had been in the whole time I would be there now. The next sell signal will be when we break the 50dma again. My problem , as many others have, is that once you sell its very hard to decide when to re-enter the market. I have never had much luck with that so I sit here waiting for the next opportunity and have to play the game I want to avoid. Guessing where the market will go. Watching the news, Fed speak, congress shenanigans. My indicators have hit the overbought area and sentiment is very bullish from my perspective so I think a pause is coming and then after a bit of sideways to down action before we finally get the drop. A lot of that is just from my experience over the years. Buying overbought has usually cost me money. I am still looking for a good spot to put 50% in stocks but I will be very cautious.
 
clester said:
There are many reasons for a pullback to happen. My system had a 50% sell a while back and if I had been in the whole time I would be there now. The next sell signal will be when we break the 50dma again. My problem , as many others have, is that once you sell its very hard to decide when to re-enter the market. I have never had much luck with that so I sit here waiting for the next opportunity and have to play the game I want to avoid. Guessing where the market will go. Watching the news, Fed speak, congress shenanigans. My indicators have hit the overbought area and sentiment is very bullish from my perspective so I think a pause is coming and then after a bit of sideways to down action before we finally get the drop. A lot of that is just from my experience over the years. Buying overbought has usually cost me money. I am still looking for a good spot to put 50% in stocks but I will be very cautious.
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Jump in 50% today for a dead cat bounce for a couple of days?
 
jkenjohnson said:
Please keep us updated on your system.
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With the loss yesterday and this mornings futures being down we could have the beginnings of a pullback. I expect it to be slow at first as traders buy the dips but over a few weeks as it becomes apparent the rally has stalled it will pick up steam. This is just a general time frame and a guess as to how it will turn out but a pullback is coming IMO. Perhaps test the june low or the 50 dma. I'll be looking for oversold conditions (i like using the RSI indicator) for a buying opportunity.
 
clester said:
With the loss yesterday and this mornings futures being down we could have the beginnings of a pullback. I expect it to be slow at first as traders buy the dips but over a few weeks as it becomes apparent the rally has stalled it will pick up steam. This is just a general time frame and a guess as to how it will turn out but a pullback is coming IMO. Perhaps test the june low or the 50 dma. I'll be looking for oversold conditions (i like using the RSI indicator) for a buying opportunity.
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The sideways to down scenario looks to be playing out so far. We'll have a few more weeks of this IMO before it breaks. We have what looks to be a head and shoulders pattern building with big shoulders. That would fit my view. I staying patient.
 
clester said:
The sideways to down scenario looks to be playing out so far. We'll have a few more weeks of this IMO before it breaks. We have what looks to be a head and shoulders pattern building with big shoulders. That would fit my view. I staying patient.
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Gracias Amigo
 
clester said:
The sideways to down scenario looks to be playing out so far. We'll have a few more weeks of this IMO before it breaks. We have what looks to be a head and shoulders pattern building with big shoulders. That would fit my view. I staying patient.
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Will a fresh buy signal for the SS System affect your system tomorrow?
 
jkenjohnson said:
Will a fresh buy signal for the SS System affect your system tomorrow?
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No. The sentiment survey is a part of it but I use mainly my sense of how bullish or bearish things are. IMO, sentiment is neutral to bullish. I need an oversold RSI to giv me a buy. We're still a ways from there.
 
clester said:
The sideways to down scenario looks to be playing out so far. We'll have a few more weeks of this IMO before it breaks. We have what looks to be a head and shoulders pattern building with big shoulders. That would fit my view. I staying patient.
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Ditto.
 
clester said:
Ditto.
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The rally is fading IMO but the dip buyers will still keep buying for a while because that is what has worked for so long. Thats why the bigger drop will take a while to develop. I don't know if any rallies are playable but I may try once this month figuring a quick day or 2 trade. Its not my strength so I'm tentative.
 
Sideways action continues. Still expect this to last a few more weeks before we drop. Probably soon after the Labor Day holiday would be my guess. Still time to play a short term bounce if a good opportunity comes along. Nothing looks good to me yet.
 
clester said:
Sideways action continues. Still expect this to last a few more weeks before we drop. Probably soon after the Labor Day holiday would be my guess. Still time to play a short term bounce if a good opportunity comes along. Nothing looks good to me yet.
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Thanks Craig
 
The sideways action continues as expected. Dip buyers still trying. They will quit in a few weeks imo. I still think sideways to slowly down until then. If we get to the 50 dma and bounce I may try a 50% trade.
 
clester said:
The sideways action continues as expected. Dip buyers still trying. They will quit in a few weeks imo. I still think sideways to slowly down until then. If we get to the 50 dma and bounce I may try a 50% trade.
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Finally a sell signal if we close down more than 20 points on S&P. I expect some resistance around the 50 dma but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets busted before a bounce happens. If I make a play it will be after a bounce.
 
clester said:
Finally a sell signal if we close down more than 20 points on S&P. I expect some resistance around the 50 dma but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets busted before a bounce happens. If I make a play it will be after a bounce.
Click to expand...

All I have is my phone. What Is the value of the 50dma?
 
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