clester's Account Talk

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My system did sell yesterday so it is now 100% G. What the system looks for now is a 2 day bounce near the 50dma (or between 50 and 200 dma) for a 50% buy and and regaining the 50dma to signal a 100% buy. I also use an oversold RSI (below 30) but we are still a good way from there.
 
clester said:
My system did sell yesterday so it is now 100% G. What the system looks for now is a 2 day bounce near the 50dma (or between 50 and 200 dma) for a 50% buy and and regaining the 50dma to signal a 100% buy. I also use an oversold RSI (below 30) but we are still a good way from there.
Click to expand...
On my longer term view, I think we test the June lows by sometime in October but we have time for a bounce before then.
 
clester said:
If we could get another 1% on the S&P down the RSI would be close to 30 and a buy signal.
Click to expand...

It's been a long time since the daily RSI has seen 30. However, I would need to see some technical upside action before buying. Stoch and PPO are falling like a rock. This market could keep dropping a while longer, IMHO.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
It's been a long time since the daily RSI has seen 30. However, I would need to see some technical upside action before buying. Stoch and PPO are falling like a rock. This market could keep dropping a while longer, IMHO.
Click to expand...
I like to see a bounce first as well. You never know when it will stop but we should see a short term bounce maybe next week if the selling continues. There is usually a bounce near the 50dma. That and an RSI of 30 or lower would be a nice setup.
 
clester said:
I like to see a bounce first as well. You never know when it will stop but we should see a short term bounce maybe next week if the selling continues. There is usually a bounce near the 50dma. That and an RSI of 30 or lower would be a nice setup.
Click to expand...

Agree. We are now just under the 50 day SMA (see chart below). If it's going to hold, now is the time. I'm not convinced it's going to hold. There was a wave of selling right at the end of the day, which is usually not a good sign. But a lot can happen between now and Monday morning, so we'll see. My crystal ball for next week says more downside is yet to come, with occasional counter rallies.


$spx.png
 
Looking for a buying opportunity this week. If we can get some more selling and the RSI down to 30 I may buy in especially if we can get a bounce started. The bigger drop is coming next month IMO and we have time for a nice rally and a lower high before then.
 
clester said:
Looking for a buying opportunity this week. If we can get some more selling and the RSI down to 30 I may buy in especially if we can get a bounce started. The bigger drop is coming next month IMO and we have time for a nice rally and a lower high before then.
Click to expand...
That RSI is dropping slowly. I do believe in gap filling especially in S&P because it rarely has gaps. Usually they get filled within a month or so but sometimes its much longer. There is a gap around 1630 that would get us close to the 30 reading on RSI. That confluence might be a good spot to buy. At some point we need to test the June low around 1560 area before we can resume the rally IMO but that may take some time.
 
clester said:
That RSI is dropping slowly. I do believe in gap filling especially in S&P because it rarely has gaps. Usually they get filled within a month or so but sometimes its much longer. There is a gap around 1630 that would get us close to the 30 reading on RSI. That confluence might be a good spot to buy. At some point we need to test the June low around 1560 area before we can resume the rally IMO but that may take some time.
Click to expand...

Interesting bounce today. S fund bounced off its 50 dma and S&P is trying to regain its 50. If we can close above it I'll have a buy signal. Although the RSI hasn't made it to 30 but in this setup I don't need it.
 
clester said:
Interesting bounce today. S fund bounced off its 50 dma and S&P is trying to regain its 50. If we can close above it I'll have a buy signal. Although the RSI hasn't made it to 30 but in this setup I don't need it.
Click to expand...

I have this feeling today is a sucker rally. I could be wrong but I feel like folks waiting to buy the dip are going to bite and the pros will be waiting to sell. Hope I'm wrong because I would like to buy in. I want to buy today! That's what scares me.
 
clester said:
I have this feeling today is a sucker rally. I could be wrong but I feel like folks waiting to buy the dip are going to bite and the pros will be waiting to sell. Hope I'm wrong because I would like to buy in. I want to buy today! That's what scares me.
Click to expand...

Follow the system not your feelings.
 
clester said:
I have this feeling today is a sucker rally. I could be wrong but I feel like folks waiting to buy the dip are going to bite and the pros will be waiting to sell.
Click to expand...
That's the way I felt about the July rally and it cost me dearly.
 
clester said:
I have this feeling today is a sucker rally. I could be wrong but I feel like folks waiting to buy the dip are going to bite and the pros will be waiting to sell. Hope I'm wrong because I would like to buy in. I want to buy today! That's what scares me.
Click to expand...
You don't think the gap at 1680 improves the chances of it not being a bull trap?
 
Bquat said:
You don't think the gap at 1680 improves the chances of it not being a bull trap?
Click to expand...
That gap also needs to be filled. Which one gets filled first is the question I guess. Yesterday was puzzling since the S fund had such a big pop and held it into the close while the C fund sold off into the close. Also, the S fund bounced off its 50 dma and C fund tested and failed at regaining its 50 dma. Which is right? the S fund is usually the leader but with such a divergence I don't know.

The RSI trend line is down on both though.
 
clester said:
That gap also needs to be filled. Which one gets filled first is the question I guess. Yesterday was puzzling since the S fund had such a big pop and held it into the close while the C fund sold off into the close. Also, the S fund bounced off its 50 dma and C fund tested and failed at regaining its 50 dma. Which is right? the S fund is usually the leader but with such a divergence I don't know.
Click to expand...

U staying in the G?
 
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