clester's Account Talk

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clester said:
I haven't used a IFT yet. I think we are too near a top to buy in now. If I had followed my system I would be in 100% and waiting for a break of trend to get out.
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I still think we are losing steam and that a correction is coming soon. We could go higher first though. I have learned through the years that buying in in these conditions could hurt badly. I am retired and not willing to gamble right here. So, remember I am now much more conservative than you younger guys. The only thing keeping my system on a buy here is the steep uptrend. As soon as it breaks my system will go to a 50% sell. My long term view is that we start a down trend until October and then have another nice rally. I'll wait on that.
 
clester said:
I haven't used a IFT yet. I think we are too near a top to buy in now. If I had followed my system I would be in 100% and waiting for a break of trend to get out.
Click to expand...

I agree.. I have 10% sitting in G waiting for an entry point. To be honest, I can wait as I'd rather see a slow and steady movement up while I wait. Although i'm typically a buy and hold investor and have done well over the past 25 years with that approach, i like to keep a little powder dry to catch dips to make investing a little more interesting. Buffet says the best investment strategy is "inactivity". Market timing is playing with fire and I have learned the hard way over the past 25 years....
 
clester said:
I still think we are losing steam and that a correction is coming soon. We could go higher first though. I have learned through the years that buying in in these conditions could hurt badly. I am retired and not willing to gamble right here. So, remember I am now much more conservative than you younger guys. The only thing keeping my system on a buy here is the steep uptrend. As soon as it breaks my system will go to a 50% sell. My long term view is that we start a down trend until October and then have another nice rally. I'll wait on that.
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Please let us know when it flips to 50% sell. I am watching my account very closely also.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Please let us know when it flips to 50% sell. I am watching my account very closely also.
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I'm calling it today. System going to 50-50. The steep uptrend is faltering and indicators are ready to head back down. My system will stay 50-50 for a while. Unless we have a down day more than 20 S&P points which is an automatic sell. I will be looking for an oversold condition and behavior at the 50 dma for a new buy signal.
 
clester said:
I'm calling it today. System going to 50-50. The steep uptrend is faltering and indicators are ready to head back down. My system will stay 50-50 for a while. Unless we have a down day more than 20 S&P points which is an automatic sell. I will be looking for an oversold condition and behavior at the 50 dma for a new buy signal.
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Does it mean you are getting back in at 50% or you would have reallocated to 50% in if you were 100% in?
 
I was peering into my long term crystal ball and it says that we go sideways to slightly lower until mid September and then have a nice drop creating a buying opportunity in mid October then rally until end of year. Next year looks iffy to me. At least the first 9 months while we sort through politics, end of QE excetera.
 
clester said:
I was peering into my long term crystal ball and it says that we go sideways to slightly lower until mid September and then have a nice drop creating a buying opportunity in mid October then rally until end of year. Next year looks iffy to me. At least the first 9 months while we sort through politics, end of QE excetera.
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roflmao.gif
 
clester said:
I was peering into my long term crystal ball and it says that we go sideways to slightly lower until mid September and then have a nice drop creating a buying opportunity in mid October then rally until end of year. Next year looks iffy to me. At least the first 9 months while we sort through politics, end of QE excetera.
Click to expand...
No change in my outlook. If my view turns out to be true I'll be out until October. Thats a long time to sit out in a bull market. I will be looking for a good place to go in 50%. Thats what my system calls for.
 
My prediction of a sideways to slow downtrend is working so far. This may continue for August. No reason to jump in or be too fast to jump out. I think the sideways action will wear down the Bulls as the buying momentum has run out of steam. September will be more interesting IMO. Being a cautious investor i'm inclined to sit out until the drop comes in September. But, my system says I should be 50% in stocks. So, if I find a good spot I'll buy in. My systems is not set up to give buy signals well after the uptrend is underway so I'm a little out of my element here to pick a spot. If we could test the 50dma and bounce I would feel better.
 
clester said:
My prediction of a sideways to slow downtrend is working so far. This may continue for August. No reason to jump in or be too fast to jump out. I think the sideways action will wear down the Bulls as the buying momentum has run out of steam. September will be more interesting IMO. Being a cautious investor i'm inclined to sit out until the drop comes in September. But, my system says I should be 50% in stocks. So, if I find a good spot I'll buy in. My systems is not set up to give buy signals well after the uptrend is underway so I'm a little out of my element here to pick a spot. If we could test the 50dma and bounce I would feel better.
Click to expand...
That G fund rate keeps going up. I like that. If we could get back to 3.5% returns..I would be happy.
 
clester said:
My prediction of a sideways to slow downtrend is working so far. This may continue for August. No reason to jump in or be too fast to jump out. I think the sideways action will wear down the Bulls as the buying momentum has run out of steam. September will be more interesting IMO. Being a cautious investor i'm inclined to sit out until the drop comes in September. But, my system says I should be 50% in stocks. So, if I find a good spot I'll buy in. My systems is not set up to give buy signals well after the uptrend is underway so I'm a little out of my element here to pick a spot. If we could test the 50dma and bounce I would feel better.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what it will take to stop this train. I got out a couple of weeks ago and should have stayed in and I would be up more than 6.6% or whatever my number is.
 
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