You may be right. I took the opportunity to take some profit off the table today(for individual stocks not TSP).
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
You may be right. I took the opportunity to take some profit off the table today(for individual stocks not TSP).
clester
Well-known member
I'm watching the S fund for a new closing high which would trigger an all clear buy. The $rut has already broken out which some consider the leader of the other markets. The C fund is still a long way from there. We are still in a bull market and now above the 50 dma so I am biased to be in the market. My system says to be in 50%. I should know better than to out think my system. My feeling of this latest rally is different than before. Maybe because of my long term outlook. I have a good return for the year and I am a conservative trader so I don't feel the need to push when it doesn't feel right. I'm still inclined to stay on the sidelines today.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Thanks for the info.
clester
Well-known member
I hate being in my position. Out and in a big run up. Thats why my system is in 50%. I guess I could blame some things for not following my system. I should buy S fund tomorrow with a stop at 860 on $ emw. We could go another 3% or so before getting overbought via RSI indicator
ravensfan
Well-known member
Hang in there clester. I still think the markets will go down sometime in mid July, which will set us up for a nice finish by months end. It's hard to be out when everyone else is having fun, but if you jump now, the markets tipically tank and it takes weeks just to break even. Bide your time, it will come around...
100%G cob 6/28
craigerv
Member
I agree. My system is a little longer term but this is actually looking quite similar to the 2011 top. A quick drop followed by a run-up above the prior highs. It took a few months to play out but eventually it corrected. I do think it could continue a bit higher, however, before a correction takes place. Needs to sucker some people in.
jkenjohnson
Active member
It seemed like all of your system criteria were met but you were not getting back in. I was a little confused, but knew you were probably thinking about soemthing else. Jumping in today?
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weatherweenie
Well-known member
Have you changed your mind about a summer correction, or do you think the drop in June was the correction?
clester
Well-known member
I think the correction is still coming. We had a mini correction. But it surprised me. I would say be cautious but don't change your strategy until it starts.
clester
Well-known member
You are right. I think it threw off my thinking somewhat. If I were following my system I would be buying S fund today. Since I'm now late buying in I'm feeling tentative. I think buying S fund with a stop at the breakout level is a safe trade. We're not much above it. But you would use up your 2 trades quickly if your wrong.
clester
Well-known member
Well it feels even worse being out today. But, today feels like that day in May when Bernanke spoke and markets spiked up then reversed and started the downtrend. Today will best that high probably. Will it reverse again? I can't help but feel we are very near the top. That's also what my long term view has been too. My system is still in buy mode though. Wish I had followed it.
I'm in the situation again of being out in a bull market. That's what my system is meant to avoid. I makes it very difficult to pick a spot to re-enter.
So, here's my self talk. I am happy with my returns for the year. The odds of a correction soon are high. Don't let the feeling of being left behind cause you to make hasty decisions (I have done this too many times). Be patient and wait for the next opportunity since you missed this one.
I'm in the situation again of being out in a bull market. That's what my system is meant to avoid. I makes it very difficult to pick a spot to re-enter.
So, here's my self talk. I am happy with my returns for the year. The odds of a correction soon are high. Don't let the feeling of being left behind cause you to make hasty decisions (I have done this too many times). Be patient and wait for the next opportunity since you missed this one.
Khotso
Well-known member
Great advice ... the only problem is I've been doing the same self-talk repeatedly since last November! Lol (and gnashing of the teeth)! Oh well, at least I'm still in the plus column for the year to date.
jkenjohnson
Active member
This market has been very frustrating at times. Sentiment is very bullish so a lot of people are thinking profit taking, correction, etc. That being said, it will probably keep going up.
JTH
Well-known member
If you had asked me a year ago I would have told everyone I hate split allocations because to me it represents a general lack of conviction. Well, I have plently of conviction but that doesn't help me out-perform a bull market. With my current partial allocation I may not get all the gains, but I do sleep better at night...
clester
Well-known member
I think its something you have to learn through experience. The school of hard knocks. For me its also because I'm retired and have a more conservative style than most. I have learned to like the 50-50 trade. The only reason I'm our 100% in the first place is my rule that a huge down days an automatic sell and overrides all other rules. This rule was made again from the school of hard knocks. There is usually follow through on those days and indicates some serious trouble ahead. I had a buy signal again though when the S fund broke back above the 50 dma. I just didn't act on it.
We are getting close to overbought via the RSI but still have another 1% or so to go. S fund is up over 9% in two weeks from the low! That seems a little crazy. System still on buy and I'm still out
clester
Well-known member
I think its something you have to learn through experience. The school of hard knocks. For me its also because I'm retired and have a more conservative style than most. I have learned to like the 50-50 trade. The only reason I'm our 100% in the first place is my rule that a huge down days an automatic sell and overrides all other rules. This rule was made again from the school of hard knocks. There is usually follow through on those days and indicates some serious trouble ahead. I had a buy signal again though when the S fund broke back above the 50 dma. I just didn't act on it.
We are getting close to overbought via the RSI but still have another 1% or so to go. S fund is up over 9% in two weeks from the low! That seems a little crazy. System still on buy and I'm still out
Another negative to me is sentiment. I know we had a hold signal from out sentiment survey(not overly bullish) but everyone is saying buy. It feels overly exuberant.
clester
Well-known member
S fund is up almost 22% this year already. At this rate we'll be up 40% for the year!
ravensfan
Well-known member
Clester,
Reading your blog is like looking in the mirror at myself. I too am retired and have a conservative investment style. I feel your pain because I've been sitting in the G fund since 6/28 and have been agonizing over when to get back in the game. If I had only stayed in (50% G, 25% S & 25% C) on the 28th I'd be fat, dumb and happy. Given the violatility of the market, sentiment, seasonality and the so called experts calling for a pullback at the time, I know why I made my decision. My number one rule of investing is "Buy Low and Sell High", so I will continue to sit and wait. Next weeks outlook gives me hope that a buy opportunity will come by the end of the week and July will finish strong. It's time for a surfers attitude: I missed this wave, but there will always be another one...
Khotso
Well-known member
Haha, unless you're an old guy as surfers go, in which case you tend to miss many waves both in the water and the markets! For me right now, it's frustrating on both fronts! But ultimately, you are right, there will be another opportunity and at some point, basic old guy conservativeness will payoff big time.
