clester's Account Talk

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nnuut said:
Broke above the 20 Day MA hope it closes above.
Click to expand...

We still have no direction except we are above 50 dma and in a bull market. I guess that is pretty good direction though :)

I think something will happen soon to give us a better feel for a direction. So, I'm happy right now with a 50-50 allocation.
 
clester said:
We still have no direction except we are above 50 dma and in a bull market. I guess that is pretty good direction though :)

I think something will happen soon to give us a better feel for a direction. So, I'm happy right now with a 50-50 allocation.
Click to expand...

I guess you could say my theory about the top being in July is still in play as we are above the 50dma and in a bull market. If so, I would want to be 100% in stocks through mid July or so. I am stuck with the 50% allocation for the rest of the month. My decision will be whether to add to my position July 1 and be ready to exit mid July or when I got a sell signal.
 
clester said:
I guess you could say my theory about the top being in July is still in play as we are above the 50dma and in a bull market. If so, I would want to be 100% in stocks through mid July or so. I am stuck with the 50% allocation for the rest of the month. My decision will be whether to add to my position July 1 and be ready to exit mid July or when I got a sell signal.
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Right there with you, used all 2 of my monthly IFT's this month:embarrest:
 
Another 20 point down day(SPX) is a another sell signal for my system. Since I'm already out 50% I don't plan on selling more as long as we stay over the 50 dma. Although the volatility is negative as far as I'm concerned. My rule about staying in at least 50% in bull market and over the 50 dma is the only reason I'm still in. I have use the 20 point rule in the past to signal a 100% SELL but since we are close to the 50 dma I'm going to let it ride. I am getting some bad vibes though.
 
clester said:
Another 20 point down day(SPX) is a another sell signal for my system. Since I'm already out 50% I don't plan on selling more as long as we stay over the 50 dma. Although the volatility is negative as far as I'm concerned. My rule about staying in at least 50% in bull market and over the 50 dma is the only reason I'm still in. I have use the 20 point rule in the past to signal a 100% SELL but since we are close to the 50 dma I'm going to let it ride. I am getting some bad vibes though.
Click to expand...

My indicators turned back up (some of them, not all) after the previous couple of days of upside, but my intermediate term system remained on sell. I've had a sneaking suspicion that the downside may catch many traders by surprise given seasonality, but it's a little too early for me to get overly bearish. But then, I did reduce my exposure on Monday from 100% stocks to 40% stocks. Like you, I've learned you have to accept some measure of volatility with the limitations we have to contend with. Being wrong on either side of the trade with those IFT constraints can be pretty frustrating. And that 50 dma also happens to be very near the lower trend line for the C and S funds. It's also OPEX week and that is known for being potentially volatile, but it's also generally true that OPEX can temper downside price action. Generally. Grab some popcorn. This may get interesting.
 
coolhand said:
My indicators turned back up (some of them, not all) after the previous couple of days of upside, but my intermediate term system remained on sell. I've had a sneaking suspicion that the downside may catch many traders by surprise given seasonality, but it's a little too early for me to get overly bearish. But then, I did reduce my exposure on Monday from 100% stocks to 40% stocks. Like you, I've learned you have to accept some measure of volatility with the limitations we have to contend with. Being wrong on either side of the trade with those IFT constraints can be pretty frustrating. And that 50 dma also happens to be very near the lower trend line for the C and S funds. It's also OPEX week and that is known for being potentially volatile, but it's also generally true that OPEX can temper downside price action. Generally. Grab some popcorn. This may get interesting.
Click to expand...
We are down 40 S&P points since about 3:00 yesterday. So, in about 2 hours of trading. Some big dogs are selling hard. We are below the 50 dma. The question is will we have a rally this afternoon like we did last time. I'm feeling like I should sell today but let's see how the morning goes. Maybe selling a bounce is the way to go. We have a gap down in S&P which is very unusual and it should get filled soon.
 
clester said:
We are down 40 S&P points since about 3:00 yesterday. So, in about 2 hours of trading. Some big dogs are selling hard. We are below the 50 dma. The question is will we have a rally this afternoon like we did last time. I'm feeling like I should sell today but let's see how the morning goes. Maybe selling a bounce is the way to go. We have a gap down in S&P which is very unusual and it should get filled soon.
Click to expand...
well, down over 20 points again and below 50 dma means sell. 100G
 
clester said:
well, down over 20 points again and below 50 dma means sell. 100G
Click to expand...

IMO, this is where we need to be careful and where I and many others have lost lots of money. If you have a sell stop you should stick to it and not keep riding things lower. I know its hard to sell on a big down day because you think it will bounce right after that. Sometimes it does. But in my experience big down days tend to have more big down days. Its better to miss a possible bounce that to have you balance go down IMO. Some may say thats too conservative. I say its the prudent thing to do. You may be worried that you have to use your last IFT and want to hang on because stocks could rally while your out. That has cost me lots of money as well. If its time to sell just do it. Some don't want to take a loss on a trade and hang on for that reason. Another mistake.

So, what I'm saying is to have an exit plan and stick to it. Yes it could turn out wrong but you have an exit strategy for a reason. Its a reasoned logical place to stop a losing trade.

So, now I'll be looking for a re-entry. I will watch the RSI for an oversold reading. A bounce off a support level etc is also in there. If the summer swoon has started it may be October before we bottom with some 50% trades in the mean time. If we can regain the 50 dma soon, I would get positive again.

Just some of my thoughts. I'm out of trades for the month. Good luck to the rest of you.
 
clester said:
IMO, this is where we need to be careful and where I and many others have lost lots of money. If you have a sell stop you should stick to it and not keep riding things lower. I know its hard to sell on a big down day because you think it will bounce right after that. Sometimes it does. But in my experience big down days tend to have more big down days. Its better to miss a possible bounce that to have you balance go down IMO. Some may say thats too conservative. I say its the prudent thing to do. You may be worried that you have to use your last IFT and want to hang on because stocks could rally while your out. That has cost me lots of money as well. If its time to sell just do it. Some don't want to take a loss on a trade and hang on for that reason. Another mistake.

So, what I'm saying is to have an exit plan and stick to it. Yes it could turn out wrong but you have an exit strategy for a reason. Its a reasoned logical place to stop a losing trade.

So, now I'll be looking for a re-entry. I will watch the RSI for an oversold reading. A bounce off a support level etc is also in there. If the summer swoon has started it may be October before we bottom with some 50% trades in the mean time. If we can regain the 50 dma soon, I would get positive again.

Just some of my thoughts. I'm out of trades for the month. Good luck to the rest of you.
Click to expand...
You going to keep us updated on your system even though you are out of IFTS'?
 
clester said:
IMO, this is where we need to be careful and where I and many others have lost lots of money. If you have a sell stop you should stick to it and not keep riding things lower. I know its hard to sell on a big down day because you think it will bounce right after that. Sometimes it does. But in my experience big down days tend to have more big down days. Its better to miss a possible bounce that to have you balance go down IMO. Some may say thats too conservative. I say its the prudent thing to do. You may be worried that you have to use your last IFT and want to hang on because stocks could rally while your out. That has cost me lots of money as well. If its time to sell just do it. Some don't want to take a loss on a trade and hang on for that reason. Another mistake.

So, what I'm saying is to have an exit plan and stick to it. Yes it could turn out wrong but you have an exit strategy for a reason. Its a reasoned logical place to stop a losing trade.

So, now I'll be looking for a re-entry. I will watch the RSI for an oversold reading. A bounce off a support level etc is also in there. If the summer swoon has started it may be October before we bottom with some 50% trades in the mean time. If we can regain the 50 dma soon, I would get positive again.

Just some of my thoughts. I'm out of trades for the month. Good luck to the rest of you.
Click to expand...

Good words of wisdom here.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Gracias Amigo. I am thinking a dead cat bounce tomorrow but can't bring myself to buy TNA.
Click to expand...
Looks like your getting the dead cat bounce.

If we can't regain the 50 dma (which would be a huge rally) today that would be confirmation of the break in the 50 dma. We could go down quite a bit more before being oversold based on RSI : under 30 but ideally about 20 where I would have a buy signal. I could see the 200 dma coming into play if we get that senario. That would be a great buy zone. Not that I'm wishing for that because a lot of folks would lose a lot of money.

I think traders are re-aligning their portfolios for the taper. That makes sense to me. How long will it take and will the bears gain control once the momentum starts in earnest. As a contrarian, I think there are still too many buy the dippers out there. Sentiment is not negative enough for a rally to hold.

I could be wrong though. I'll be watching closely come July when I get more trades for a buying opportunity.
 
Dead Cat Bounce is dead... unless some buying comes in soon...

The better question is where do the banks want the stock and index levels to be at closing to make the maximum money on the option calls and puts???

THAT is where we are closing today.
 
clester said:
Looks like your getting the dead cat bounce.

If we can't regain the 50 dma (which would be a huge rally) today that would be confirmation of the break in the 50 dma. We could go down quite a bit more before being oversold based on RSI : under 30 but ideally about 20 where I would have a buy signal. I could see the 200 dma coming into play if we get that senario. That would be a great buy zone. Not that I'm wishing for that because a lot of folks would lose a lot of money.

I think traders are re-aligning their portfolios for the taper. That makes sense to me. How long will it take and will the bears gain control once the momentum starts in earnest. As a contrarian, I think there are still too many buy the dippers out there. Sentiment is not negative enough for a rally to hold.

I could be wrong though. I'll be watching closely come July when I get more trades for a buying opportunity.
Click to expand...

Hoping most of the damage is done, I'm going in.
 
jkenjohnson said:
I actually chnged my mind with about 30 seconds left. Still in the G fund. Looking at the fututres this morning, I'm glad I did.
Click to expand...

Looks like a good decision. Things don't feel too good to me. My gut says the summer swoon has begun. I don't know how long it will take but we will probably test the 200dma. It things play out like I think then we will have some opportunity for short tem trades but the tide won't turn until October or so. Even if that happens we would still be in a long term bull market.

I will probably take a shot if we get an RSI down to 20. The ways its going that could be soon. Once the door is open and folks start leaving in a panic others will follow. People will want to keep their profits. I think its an inflection point with infinite QE ending on the table. The market will have to get used to the idea. But it also means things are getting better? I don't know but in my extended family things are bad. Several out of work with few prospects. States are cutting off unemployment benefits. Lots of health issues, divorce and money problems. So far it the summer of discontent. Hope that doesn't portend anything about the stock market.
 
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