clester's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
clester said:
Looks like a good decision. Things don't feel too good to me. My gut says the summer swoon has begun. I don't know how long it will take but we will probably test the 200dma. It things play out like I think then we will have some opportunity for short tem trades but the tide won't turn until October or so. Even if that happens we would still be in a long term bull market.

I will probably take a shot if we get an RSI down to 20. The ways its going that could be soon. Once the door is open and folks start leaving in a panic others will follow. People will want to keep their profits. I think its an inflection point with infinite QE ending on the table. The market will have to get used to the idea. But it also means things are getting better? I don't know but in my extended family things are bad. Several out of work with few prospects. States are cutting off unemployment benefits. Lots of health issues, divorce and money problems. So far it the summer of discontent. Hope that doesn't portend anything about the stock market.
Click to expand...

Keep us updated on your system.
 
clester said:
...But it also means things are getting better? I don't know but in my extended family things are bad. Several out of work with few prospects. States are cutting off unemployment benefits. Lots of health issues, divorce and money problems. So far it the summer of discontent. Hope that doesn't portend anything about the stock market.
Click to expand...

When I got into teaching (2001), our economy had been booming for a long time and the private sector was way more attractive than the public sector. Nobody wanted to be a teacher, and I was able to get a job before I even had a credential (:embarrest: I got one within two years, mind you ;)). Shortly after, the dot.com bubble burst, 9/11 happened, and the economy derailed somewhat. Then little by little the public sector became more attractive. Now, we're losing benefits, getting furloughed (teachers in the States have been furloughed for the last 3-4 years, and now are putting that behind them - it seems the Fed is a little behind the curve). Anyway, I think it's all a big cycle, and we're about to enter a period of growth in the private sector. That means the public sector is going to look uglier and uglier for a few years, so we have to buckle up. But we'll endure. It all comes and goes in waves.
 
Sensei said:
When I got into teaching (2001), our economy had been booming for a long time and the private sector was way more attractive than the public sector. Nobody wanted to be a teacher, and I was able to get a job before I even had a credential (:embarrest: I got one within two years, mind you ;)). Shortly after, the dot.com bubble burst, 9/11 happened, and the economy derailed somewhat. Then little by little the public sector became more attractive. Now, we're losing benefits, getting furloughed (teachers in the States have been furloughed for the last 3-4 years, and now are putting that behind them - it seems the Fed is a little behind the curve). Anyway, I think it's all a big cycle, and we're about to enter a period of growth in the private sector. That means the public sector is going to look uglier and uglier for a few years, so we have to buckle up. But we'll endure. It all comes and goes in waves.
Click to expand...
I think I've mentioned it before but my wife is a public school teacher (2nd grade) in tennessee. Our state has been slowly tearing down public education. Trying to break it IMO so it can be privatized. Why anyone would go into education nowadays is beyond me. Low pay and the constant complaining about education , focus on test scores, reducing benefits, breaking unions so there is no voice for teachers etc. has turned this once proud profession upside down. But like I tell my wife and repeating what you said. Things are cyclical. Just hang on. Things will turn.
 
clester said:
Low pay and the constant complaining about education , focus on test scores, reducing benefits, breaking unions so there is no voice for teachers etc. has turned this once proud profession upside down.
Click to expand...

And my wife, also a teacher, would argue that the unions are the problem. So, what have the teachers unions done for teachers recently? Still have low pay, still focusing on test scores as a means to grade teachers (btw, severe disability (SD) kids are part of no child left behind and count AGAINST teachers scores), benefits are getting reduced even further, and there truly has never been a voice for teachers (unless you are trying to get away with the minimum).

So, without dragging your thread into a political tirade, I just wanted to point out that there is another view out there. Unions have not done what they promised.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
And my wife, also a teacher, would argue that the unions are the problem. So, what have the teachers unions done for teachers recently? Still have low pay, still focusing on test scores as a means to grade teachers (btw, severe disability (SD) kids are part of no child left behind and count AGAINST teachers scores), benefits are getting reduced even further, and there truly has never been a voice for teachers (unless you are trying to get away with the minimum).

So, without dragging your thread into a political tirade, I just wanted to point out that there is another view out there. Unions have not done what they promised.
Click to expand...
They are the only collective voice they have. With no one to fight for them it will go down even faster IMO. I know a lot of teachers who feel like your wife but I think they have been fed the anti union rhetoric so long they believe it. Look back in history at how things were before teachers had a voice. Duty free lunch, planning periods, the right to representation for diciplinary actions and advocating for benefits like pay and health insurance are a few. If your wife were to get in trouble for something she didn't do and were threatened with firing she would probably appreciate some support. Do you really want the system to have the right to fire your wife with no reason? Unions are not the problem. Sure you can always come up with some cases where they went too far.
 
I wouldn't try to buy the dip here. IMO you should not try to time the bottom here but wait for things to bottom first. I've been hurt many times with that strategy. If you do then you need to have a stop loss target. Wait to you hear everyone running for the door. Still no panic IMO. Maybe we are in the denial stage?
 
clester said:
I wouldn't try to buy the dip here. IMO you should not try to time the bottom here but wait for things to bottom first. I've been hurt many times with that strategy. If you do then you need to have a stop loss target. Wait to you hear everyone running for the door. Still no panic IMO. Maybe we are in the denial stage?
Click to expand...

Looks like a mini rally is underway.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Looks like a mini rally is underway.
Click to expand...

In not surprised because we are at the botton of the short term downtrend line. We may get a day or two up but until we regain the 50 dma or break this down trend I would be careful. Still folks wanting to buy dips. If this morning fades they will prob sell. Volatility is too high. I see no reason yet to buy from my system.
 
clester said:
In not surprised because we are at the botton of the short term downtrend line. We may get a day or two up but until we regain the 50 dma or break this down trend I would be careful. Still folks wanting to buy dips. If this morning fades they will prob sell. Volatility is too high. I see no reason yet to buy from my system.
Click to expand...

Thanks for keeping us updated.
 
clester said:
In not surprised because we are at the botton of the short term downtrend line. We may get a day or two up but until we regain the 50 dma or break this down trend I would be careful. Still folks wanting to buy dips. If this morning fades they will prob sell. Volatility is too high. I see no reason yet to buy from my system.
Click to expand...


So we are talking about 1625 or so?
 
jkenjohnson said:
Any changes to the crystal ball?
Click to expand...
Looks like it was wrong on the 2 day rally. I don't have a buy yet. First of all we need to get back above the 50 dma. Then we need to break the down trend line. The open gap is calling. It may pull us up there. Sentiment has done a 180 and now Cnbc is all bullish again. The bonds were way oversold and have now gotten back above those conditions which is why stocks have rallied. The question is: is everything good again?

My gut says the market is pulling in more dip buyers before it slams the door. It loves to frustrate.

So, we are nearing some major resistance areas and sentiment is too positive IMO. If we can clear the gap area about 1625 I'm guessing I would have a buy. Of course, my system is conservative. My long term view is that we have a rough summer and start another major rally about October. I had expected the rally to continue through mid July before a correction. Was I wrong?
 
Thanks for the updates. They are greatly appreciated!
clester said:
Looks like it was wrong on the 2 day rally. I don't have a buy yet. First of all we need to get back above the 50 dma. Then we need to break the down trend line. The open gap is calling. It may pull us up there. Sentiment has done a 180 and now Cnbc is all bullish again. The bonds were way oversold and have now gotten back above those conditions which is why stocks have rallied. The question is: is everything good again?

My gut says the market is pulling in more dip buyers before it slams the door. It loves to frustrate.

So, we are nearing some major resistance areas and sentiment is too positive IMO. If we can clear the gap area about 1625 I'm guessing I would have a buy. Of course, my system is conservative. My long term view is that we have a rough summer and start another major rally about October. I had expected the rally to continue through mid July before a correction. Was I wrong?
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

UNIX84
UNIX84 Account Talk
Replies
14
Views
3K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bulls are back
Replies
0
Views
138
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bulls took charge after monetary policy green light
Replies
0
Views
3K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks tentative in front of today's jobs report
Replies
0
Views
3K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - An inauspicious start to the New Year
Replies
1
Views
152
nasa1974
nasa1974
Back
Top