clester's Account Talk

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clester said:
We got the bounce but it happened too fast to buy. Seems to me that we are in a trading range that is getting smaller. Some charts look like a triangle forming. S fund has the best looking chart with a good support area but the descending 50 dma is coming fast.
Click to expand...

Markets have turned lower. No follow through from yesterday means we haven’t started back up yet. Bias is still down.
 
clester said:
Markets have turned lower. No follow through from yesterday means we haven’t started back up yet. Bias is still down.
Click to expand...

Let’s see if there is follow through after the reversal yesterday and pop in futures this morning. Even if we do get a bounce there is the 50 dma not too far above


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clester said:
Let’s see if there is follow through after the reversal yesterday and pop in futures this morning. Even if we do get a bounce there is the 50 dma not too far above


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Click to expand...
We have created another gap too. I'm afraid this may get sold intraday. I know a lot of folks are really positive with the reversal pattern so, maybe I'm wrong.
 
clester said:
We have created another gap too. I'm afraid this may get sold intraday. I know a lot of folks are really positive with the reversal pattern so, maybe I'm wrong.
Click to expand...

AAPL has turned negative. We need it to participate to get a good rally going.
 
clester said:
Another premarket pop hmm
Click to expand...
For some reason I'm feeling better about todays premarket pop. I think the pattern on the S&P is forming a good base. Several days holding that 2620 ish area. Been a lot of up and down but it hasn't broken down. S fund is in kinda the same pattern but not as nice a basing pattern. Apple also has a nice basing pattern with lots of positive talk now.

Could we finally be out of the woods? If I buy it should be a 50% by via my trading rules. We are in a bear market via the 50 dma being below the 200 dma in all stock funds. I may buy some appl and Russell 2000 in my IRA if we see an intraday pullback to fill any gap that forms.
 
clester said:
For some reason I'm feeling better about todays premarket pop. I think the pattern on the S&P is forming a good base. Several days holding that 2620 ish area. Been a lot of up and down but it hasn't broken down. S fund is in kinda the same pattern but not as nice a basing pattern. Apple also has a nice basing pattern with lots of positive talk now.

Could we finally be out of the woods? If I buy it should be a 50% by via my trading rules. We are in a bear market via the 50 dma being below the 200 dma in all stock funds. I may buy some appl and Russell 2000 in my IRA if we see an intraday pullback to fill any gap that forms.
Click to expand...
Going 50% C fund.
 
Was thinking similar thoughts today. Main justification I have is that I only have one move left, and I’m not sure if we will get a Santa rally so now may be the only potential profit to be made this month. I’m going to use my last move today. Thinking 50c50s but may only go 25’s or 33’s.
 
clester said:
Markets have turned lower. No follow through from yesterday means we haven’t started back up yet. Bias is still down.
Click to expand...

Another gap this morning. This time down. It’s getting old. I think we reverse this gap down today. I’d rather gap down and climb up than the other way around


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I’m out! Only had 30%S but I don’t see anything positive. 100% G for me until the market improves!
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!⛄️


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ToddB said:
I’m out! Only had 30%S but I don’t see anything positive. 100% G for me until the market improves!
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!⛄️


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
A lot of times that's the sentiment needed to get a rally going. I just feel like this downtrend is going to turn around soon. I'm not at the "get me out at any price" place but I would be if I had ridden this all the way down.

I'm saying we are at the bottom or near it. Mostly short sellers are in the market right now IMO. I'm tempted to join them... so that means its a bad time to sell
 
Sentiment is way too bearish via The AAII sentiment survey. That may signal a buying opportunity. It's always hard to buy on the way down though. Apple is up today at least.
 
clester said:
Sentiment is way too bearish via The AAII sentiment survey. That may signal a buying opportunity. It's always hard to buy on the way down though. Apple is up today at least.
Click to expand...

A problem for me is that the RSI indicator of everything I've been looking at is not shown oversold yet.
 
clester said:
A problem for me is that the RSI indicator of everything I've been looking at is not shown oversold yet.
Click to expand...

The S fund hit oversold today and C fund is pretty close. We also hit the February low that everyone was expecting. Plus, terrible sentiment may be enough to start a relief rally. Not sure how far a rally we get. We are definitely in a real bear market imo. Gonna be a traders market for a while. Hard to do that in TSP. Hoping S&P can get back to the 50 dma that is sloping down
 
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