clester's Account Talk

[clester]

The S fund hit oversold today and C fund is pretty close. We also hit the February low that everyone was expecting. Plus, terrible sentiment may be enough to start a relief rally. Not sure how far a rally we get. We are definitely in a real bear market imo. Gonna be a traders market for a while. Hard to do that in TSP. Hoping S&P can get back to the 50 dma that is sloping down

Thinking of selling today. Probably just listening to talking heads too much but they paint an ugly picture. The charts look ugly too. Even if we were overbought, those rallies get sold. I kinda want to wait for the fed tomorrow and expect a rally but who really knows.

 

[clester]

Thinking of selling today. Probably just listening to talking heads too much but they paint an ugly picture. The charts look ugly too. Even if we were overbought, those rallies get sold. I kinda want to wait for the fed tomorrow and expect a rally but who really knows.

We are now very oversold so a rally should be coming. But sometimes we go further than normal. I may look to buy some in my IRA tomorrow since I'm out of out of moves

 

[clester]

We are now very oversold so a rally should be coming. But sometimes we go further than normal. I may look to buy some in my IRA tomorrow since I'm out of out of moves

the rally came but after Christmas. I missed that one. it felt like the 24th was a wash out and turned out it was. I never bought in. I should have but I was out of moves for December. One clue for my system was the RSI at 20 on the S&P. That overrides all other signals. I missed it. Now, the rally has reached the point of decision. We are near the 50 dma and we've been losing steam. Should be a pullback here. How much is the question. A retest of the lows for a double bottom would be perfect but a 50% retracement would work too. If we blast through the 50 dma then we have more rally coming. But we need a pullback to make this last imo.

 

[Mcqlives]

I agree. And did the same you did with missing (most of) this upside. I have 2607, 2447 and 2351 set for my alarm calls...otherwise I am snoozing in G.

 

[BooDog]

I think we may see volatility pick back up. Saw the reset on the TVX, VIX and the VXX. Hard for me to gauge, and even thought about the "trend is your friend" yesterday before I moved mostly back to G. Only had 10% each C S I but had an inkling that the market wouldn't break resistance. Sideways now but thinking that won't last long. Break up big time or reset down a bit. Out of moves till Feb so I'm just a reed in the wind watching.

 

[BooDog]

<Meant to add, didn't feel comfortable going to F because of the uncertainty. Very possible we see the indices move up through resistance. Just hope it wait till February now.

 

[clester]

S&P hit resistance at the 50 dma and backed off yesterday. Thats what I expected. Will be Interesting to see how the market reacts to that. Down some this morning. Question is... are we back to buying the dips? If we get above the 50 dma I will probably buy in 50%. I would like to see us have a nice pull back to support.

 

[clester]

S&P hit resistance at the 50 dma and backed off yesterday. Thats what I expected. Will be Interesting to see how the market reacts to that. Down some this morning. Question is... are we back to buying the dips? If we get above the 50 dma I will probably buy in 50%. I would like to see us have a nice pull back to support.

We popped through the 50 dam easily. There is usually a re test of the breakout. I think I will wait for that. Plus we are already up big for the month.

 

[quabit]

We popped through the 50 dam easily. There is usually a re test of the breakout. I think I will wait for that. Plus we are already up big for the month.

Plus if this holds for today we will have a gap that the market will have to deal with at some point. Watching this relentlessly go up sucks on the G side of the fence but I hoping maybe we are experience the same at last year. Big pop in Jan and crash in Feb so we can test some lows. That would nice. I'm learning that sometime sticky pants are worn in up markets as well as down markets and its just as hard. I was watching the 50 day like you to help gauge when when to try putting some money to work but man we have jump so fast its scary.

 

[clester]

We popped through the 50 day MA, as well as the double low last fall, and have now retested it and bounced. These are good signs. The 50 dma is still below the 200 so I'm still in bear market rules. Looking at a 50% buy in today. Lets see how we react during the morning. The semiconductors rally yesterday seems to be out of whack. One was up 20%, I think. These are not IPO's or something. Very strange and concerning.

 

[clester]

We popped through the 50 day MA, as well as the double low last fall, and have now retested it and bounced. These are good signs. The 50 dma is still below the 200 so I'm still in bear market rules. Looking at a 50% buy in today. Lets see how we react during the morning. The semiconductors rally yesterday seems to be out of whack. One was up 20%, I think. These are not IPO's or something. Very strange and concerning.

I don’t like the gap up on S&P this morning. Will we need to fill it soon? Also, back at the important level around 2680 to break out of the V shaped dip in December. Plus we’ve come a long way. I’m thinking of waiting until next week to get in.


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[clester]

I don’t like the gap up on S&P this morning. Will we need to fill it soon? Also, back at the important level around 2680 to break out of the V shaped dip in December. Plus we’ve come a long way. I’m thinking of waiting until next week to get in.


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We tapped back down today. Creating an “island’ formation I think it’s called. In this case that’s bearish. I’ll be interested in how this plays out. I’m in no hurry to buy but I would like to buy by the end of the month if I can. We need to hold the 50 dma

 

[clester]

We tapped back down today. Creating an “island’ formation I think it’s called. In this case that’s bearish. I’ll be interested in how this plays out. I’m in no hurry to buy but I would like to buy by the end of the month if I can. We need to hold the 50 dma

The gaps are now filled on that island formation. So, where do we go from here? Fed announcement this afternoon. I have until tomorrow to get in for February so I will wait for that. I’m feeling good about the markets in general. Back above the 50 dma on S and C funds but still in bear market via 50 dma below the 200. So, i’ll Be looking for a 50% buy tomorrow if the market holds up.

 

[Mcqlives]

I expected a little better jump this morning. Market usually shows its anticipation a little better than this on good earning days with a fed speak in the PM. Maybe the market is really in a wait-and-see mode. I hope it is and we climb from here.

Stay warm everyone. -18 in my Illinois back yard this morning at 630. Crawled up to -11 as of now.

 

[clester]

The gaps are now filled on that island formation. So, where do we go from here? Fed announcement this afternoon. I have until tomorrow to get in for February so I will wait for that. I’m feeling good about the markets in general. Back above the 50 dma on S and C funds but still in bear market via 50 dma below the 200. So, i’ll Be looking for a 50% buy tomorrow if the market holds up.

Going 25% S and 25% C funds. Got the 200 dma above and the triple top area to get through before we can call an all clear plus we need the get the 50 dma back above the 200. That will take a while.

 

[clester]

Going 25% S and 25% C funds. Got the 200 dma above and the triple top area to get through before we can call an all clear plus we need the get the 50 dma back above the 200. That will take a while.

The RSI values are 63 ish on the S&P. This is a strong reading but not too strong yet to indicate overbought. 70 is a warning sign and 80 is a sell sign. We have some room left but as we reach the triple top area the RSI may be close to a warning area. Hope that doesn't cause a sell off. Plus, we have had a great January. So, I'm a little worried about profit taking coming soon. I hope we have another month to climb. March can be messy sometimes.

 

[quabit]

The RSI values are 63 ish on the S&P. This is a strong reading but not too strong yet to indicate overbought. 70 is a warning sign and 80 is a sell sign. We have some room left but as we reach the triple top area the RSI may be close to a warning area. Hope that doesn't cause a sell off. Plus, we have had a great January. So, I'm a little worried about profit taking coming soon. I hope we have another month to climb. March can be messy sometimes.

I hear you. Since missing this run up I still have 2 trades as I was hoping we would see a test of the lows however with the Powell put firmly in place after hearing his "Patience" speech yesterday I get the feeling the most we might see is a minor pull back. Sucks that I missed the run but if this plays out like when Yellen established her "put" we could see plenty of upside and only minor pull backs along the way.

So I need to rethink my plan as such my plan was to move in today in order to better utilize the two trades for next month. Of course today had to be up and on top of yesterdays big day so I'm with you in being worried. Hoping I didn't buy the high with Feb being a normally crappy month. Also what will Amazon do after the bell has me worried too.

 

[clester]

I hear you. Since missing this run up I still have 2 trades as I was hoping we would see a test of the lows however with the Powell put firmly in place after hearing his "Patience" speech yesterday I get the feeling the most we might see is a minor pull back. Sucks that I missed the run but if this plays out like when Yellen established her "put" we could see plenty of upside and only minor pull backs along the way.

So I need to rethink my plan as such my plan was to move in today in order to better utilize the two trades for next month. Of course today had to be up and on top of yesterdays big day so I'm with you in being worried. Hoping I didn't buy the high with Feb being a normally crappy month. Also what will Amazon do after the bell has me worried too.

Its tough trying to time a buy. Waiting for a pull back can leave you on the sidelines for way too long. Been there. Buying a rally can bite you too because at anytime a sell off can take place. I think the best advice is to make 2 buys of 50% so that you won't get burned if it goes bad. We are due a pull back .if we don't get one this month then march could be ugly.

 

[clester]

Its tough trying to time a buy. Waiting for a pull back can leave you on the sidelines for way too long. Been there. Buying a rally can bite you too because at anytime a sell off can take place. I think the best advice is to make 2 buys of 50% so that you won't get burned if it goes bad. We are due a pull back .if we don't get one this month then march could be ugly.

I'll say one more thing that I've learned over the years. When every thinks something will happen. It usually doesn't. Lots of folks thinking a pull back is coming. Including me.

 

[Cactus]

Yeah, that marketwatch article (The evidence is in: Stocks are in a ?bull trap? - MarketWatch) exnavyew posted in his thread yesterday is enough to scare me out of the market. I was jumpy enough when the unemployment rate last Friday remained above its 12 MMA.

I know my emotions are my own worst enemy so I am remaining in the market for now. I do have my hands on the ejection seat handle, though, as I look at the 200 DMA. I'm not going to ride this down again like I did last Oct/Nov/Dec.