clester's Account Talk

[clester]

C fund tested and failed to get back above the 50 dma. S fund is right at it. I have a 50% sell signal. F fund is also below 50 dma. Going 50% G 50% S. My system is in bull market rules

Now I'm looking for a drop in RSI to below 30 in S&P and hopefully a divergence in price/rsi where price goes lower and RSI makes A higher low

 

[clester]

This morning, both S and C funds are above their 50 dma. I haven't been watching I fund but it is above the 50 dma and now at a new higher high. When to buy is the question for me. 2 big up days in a row wold make me expect a short term pull back from profit taking. Timing these is difficult. Plus we are close to new highs so i would expect some resistance there.

 

[weatherweenie]

When to buy? Aren't you fully invested?

This morning, both S and C funds are above their 50 dma. I haven't been watching I fund but it is above the 50 dma and now at a new higher high. When to buy is the question for me. 2 big up days in a row wold make me expect a short term pull back from profit taking. Timing these is difficult. Plus we are close to new highs so i would expect some resistance there.

 

[clester]

When to buy? Aren't you fully invested?

Oops i didn't change my signature. I sold my C fund a few days ago.

 

[clester]

I am still looking for a bigger drop by mid October and maybe around election. Should be a buying opportunity.

 

[clester]

I am still looking for a bigger drop by mid October and maybe around election. Should be a buying opportunity.

Glad i didn't buy that last pop. We didn't make a new high. I think it could be mid October for next buy although S fund is still above 50 dma and we are in bull market rules

 

[clester]

Glad i didn't buy that last pop. We didn't make a new high. I think it could be mid October for next buy although S fund is still above 50 dma and we are in bull market rules

Markets are just bouncing around. No real direction. S and I funds bounced off there 50 dma but C fund is still below its. Im expecting a drop into mid October and maybe into election. No buys signal except that my system in bull market rules. That means at least 50% stocks. F fund could be a but if it can break out to a new high. End of the month so there will be some repositioning in folks TSP and other market players. Its good to be in stocks to start the month to maximize our number of trades but not unless there is a good reason to buy. I'm sitting still.

 

[clester]

The usual October drop is coming. I don't have a 100% sell signal. Im under bull market rules so i have to stay in 50%. But if we DO get a drop it will be a buying opportunity.

 

[clester]

The usual October drop is coming. I don't have a 100% sell signal. Im under bull market rules so i have to stay in 50%. But if we DO get a drop it will be a buying opportunity.

We have a long way down to go for me to get a buy signal. RSIs are around 45 and i need sub 30. That could be 5% lower. Idk how it plays out but we have a nice downtrend

 

[clester]

We have a long way down to go for me to get a buy signal. RSIs are around 45 and i need sub 30. That could be 5% lower. Idk how it plays out but we have a nice downtrend

I'm getting interested in getting back in soon. Seasonality and election cycle say we should be going back up soon. If we could get a nice drop to get the RSI down, I will look to buy some. It could be until after election before I get that signal though.

 

[clester]

I'm getting interested in getting back in soon. Seasonality and election cycle say we should be going back up soon. If we could get a nice drop to get the RSI down, I will look to buy some. It could be until after election before I get that signal though.

C and S funds are testing their September lows. Can they hold above? Futures are up this morning but I think we could have some more downside. Still looking for a sub 30 RSI but i may not get it

 

[clester]

C and S funds are testing their September lows. Can they hold above? Futures are up this morning but I think we could have some more downside. Still looking for a sub 30 RSI but i may not get it

Its been a couple weeks since my last post and nothing has really changed. S fund did make a lower low but C fund has held so far.

End of the month is a good time to go long to maximize number of trades for the next month. But there is not a good enough reason based in my system. Maybe the election is a factor but e should have a bounce soon. We just need to get that RSI a little lower. S fund's is about 35

 

[clester]

Its been a couple weeks since my last post and nothing has really changed. S fund did make a lower low but C fund has held so far.

End of the month is a good time to go long to maximize number of trades for the next month. But there is not a good enough reason based in my system. Maybe the election is a factor but e should have a bounce soon. We just need to get that RSI a little lower. S fund's is about 35

Getting that rsi lower but still a bit to go to get that oversold buy signal.

 

[clester]

Getting that rsi lower but still a bit to go to get that oversold buy signal.

Well, we got that rsi lower. Both C and S funds are below 30 and near the 200 dma. I don't like trying to catch a falling knife so i will wait for a bounce first. Unless the rsi gets to 20. If that happens I'm in.

 

[felinecrl]

Clester, thanks for explaining what the acronyms mean. I believe I can grasp what you're saying, it's just that I would have said it in different terms. I am doing the same today, and I think it's a smart decision to be alert. Enjoy your weekend!

 

[clester]

Well, we got that rsi lower. Both C and S funds are below 30 and near the 200 dma. I don't like trying to catch a falling knife so i will wait for a bounce first. Unless the rsi gets to 20. If that happens I'm in.

Tempted to buy today but a one day bounce isn't enough. To get a strong buy I need divergence between RSI and price. A lower price while RSi makes a higher low. So, Another drop in price would be great. My system doesn't look at news or economic data but the election could cause some selling. Think I'll wait for that.

 

[ToddB]

Great call Clester I'm in G and waiting for more confirmation of an upswing before making a move.


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[clester]

Great call Clester I'm in G and waiting for more confirmation of an upswing before making a move.


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Oversold rally today but still in downtrend. May be a good setup to get the divergence my system likes. If we can make a lower low in price and a higher low on rsi then my system is all in!

 

[clester]

Oversold rally today but still in downtrend. May be a good setup to get the divergence my system likes. If we can make a lower low in price and a higher low on rsi then my system is all in!

Well, looks like that low was the buy after all. We have climbed so fast that now we are too close to new high to buy but i do have a buy signal. We are above the 50 dma and in a bull market. RSI is getting up there but still not overbought.

 

[clester]

Well, looks like that low was the buy after all. We have climbed so fast that now we are too close to new high to buy but i do have a buy signal. We are above the 50 dma and in a bull market. RSI is getting up there but still not overbought.

This is a good time to mention why i have to 50% buy/sell signals. In a bull market, bias is up so and down in bear market. This strategy always leaves 50% in the direction of the bias. So, i wont miss out completely. This gives me mental solace too. I can claim victory because i was in 50%. If i had been all out then i would be very upset that i missed this rally. I coulda bought at my last signal but didn't because of election jitters and waiting on divergence in rsi/price which never had a chance to develop.