ChemEng's Account talk...

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ChemEng,
Deleating posts, just ask a moderator via PM.....We can do edits, deleats, moves.....:cheesy:
 
Don't be too hard on yourself. There are (in my opinion) 4 major sides to monitor/watch in TSP investing; Technical Indicators/Charting, Media/News, Emotional Market Trends, and all in out Personal Guts/Timing. Put any combination of these together, make a call and jump all the way in the Pits. :nuts: You'll get it. :D and without fail...
KEEP READING THESE: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forumdisplay.php?f=7
ChemEng said:
Im still lost in a dark house with most of this-and there isnt the faintest sliver of light around to let me know Im pointed in the right direction.

I am getting familiar with the tools used for the analysis, but still missing the big piece about how they are combined to point to trends and potential forecasts. Its highly frustrating. Almost to the point of switching entirely to a buy and hold position. *shrug*
Click to expand...
 
5pm cant come quick enough... Ive got a bad case of cabin fever and looking across the parade field on a nice day like today isnt helping. Even then there's no reprieve as I get the unique pleasure of tearing into another water damaged wall to reinforce studs and replace sill plates.

Out of the furnace and into the fire...
 
Its looking like a good day to jump into I fund with both feet. Whos with me?

Also, what is the significance of a Fund breaking through the top of its Bollinger Bands? The spreadsheet I put together has C and S moving above the +2STEDEV band. Im guessing that points to 1 of 2 situations: 1. The fund is trying to push open a new trade channel. OR 2. Those funds are overbought and ripe for a drop in the near future. Can anyone give some experience about what this tends to mean (beyond my guesses)?
 
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I've been trying to figure the same thing out with the trading bands. From what I read, a push through the top or bottom is one way to mark a new trend. I haven't been able to see much to that statement because some funds just keep going when they hit the band and others go the opposite direction after breaking through the band.
 
fabijo said:
I've been trying to figure the same thing out with the trading bands. From what I read, a push through the top or bottom is one way to mark a new trend. I haven't been able to see much to that statement because some funds just keep going when they hit the band and others go the opposite direction after breaking through the band.
Click to expand...

Those were my 2 guesses about what would happen. I guess well see what happens! Thanks for the response.
 
My short term plan is to IFT out of I today into S or some combination of C/S. (Im also thinking about leaving a small portion in I depending on how things play out this morning.) Hopefully that will let me capture some of the holiday goodness. On Monday or so, I will be looking for a good entry point back into I.
 
CE
Thanksgiving day has couged up some good returns in the past for OSMs and Nikkei is due to make up the ground it's lost in the last few trading days. I'm staying with the I until the Nikkei definitively moves one way or the other.
 
Thats good to hear. Looks like today would have been a good day to leave the I fund too. Well see how tomorrow plays out...
 
Its looking like today may be a better day to jump from the I fund. Into what? Im not as certain as I was earlier this week. Im leaning more towards G now than C or S. I will have to wait until closer to noon to make this call...
 
So now Im 100%G after getting lucky last week. The problem is that its all red this morning... What to do? What to do? Right now my inclination is to hold strong in G until the smoke clears. Ive got 2 more hours to think about it and change my mind though. :)

Anyone want to talk about moves they are planning for today (if any)?
 
Looks like today may be a good time to buy back into stocks. Im showing the C, S, and I fund crossing their 20 day SMA yesterday which has been a strong point last quarter. If today is another down day, then I am definately going to buy in.
 
08:33 ET Dow , Nasdaq , S&P : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures trade pulls back following weak economic data and now suggests an even lower open for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Durable orders fell a larger than expected 8.3% in October (consensus -5.0%) -- the biggest drop in six years, while nondefense capital goods orders excluding transportation, which provide a clearer read on underlying business capital investment, fell 5.1%. The 10-year note, which was down slightly ahead of the report, has rebounded and is now up 7 ticks to yield 4.49%. Nasdaq at... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/0... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 0/0.
Click to expand...

Looking like a good buying opportunity is developing here. Lets see how the news from the morning pans out first. Im not sure how Durable orders works within the context of overall market action. Can anyone help me with that? But Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales data will be released at 1000. Unfortunately Uncle Ben speaks at 12. So will have to roll the dice on that one either way...
 
I found the answer (also posted on the Market Report site, just on a different posting.)

"Aside from the disappointing read on Oct. durable goods adding to concerns about the pace of economic growth..."

Still learning.
 
I stayed safe today. I couldnt find the best of 2 positions, so I did nothing.

1. Uncle Ben's talk has positive impact on US markets. (US interest rate will stay same or even decrease versus increasing world rates.) The move would be to move into some mix of C and S. However since I am sitting in G right, I couldnt get into the stocks until tomorrow after the mini-rally would have happened and have ended up buying high.
2. The second order effect of realizing the potential of a small rally this afternoon and move into I expecting the rally to continue overseas. But the overseas markets have had an awful week this week and any US rally may actually increase the $ exchange rate, all with the potential to dilute any trickle down from a US market rally.

Once I realized I wasnt even moderately confident about the direction of this afternoon's direction (ie dead cat bounce versus rally), I didnt move and stayed safe at home in G. :)
 
It looks like there will be some support from the 20 day SMA for C and S at least in the short term. There was a small gain yesterday and futures for today are pointing upwards. I am considering to go 100%S today...

The real question is does a dead cat bounce twice? :)
 
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