ChemEng's Account talk...

[Griffin]

So is it too late to get on the S train??? Or should I wait for it to cool down to buy in again...

I have been debating a move into the S-fund from the I-fund, but the dollar was looking toppy so I stayed. After today's move, the dollar index looks like it is going to continue to drift higher. So I am leaning towards the the S-fund, until the dollar index caps out.

I am considering taking a one to two day shot into the F after todays spike in the TNX, in hope of a better buy in point to the S-fund.

 

[ChemEng]

Thanks for the help all. Im going to use today to spread back out across the funds.

 

[Birchtree]

Chem,

Sometimes if you want to let the profits run you have to run naked with them through the forest - it's too easy to get stopped out. Playing a bull market is just as difficult as playing in a bear market. There is danger around every corner. I've lost count of the times I've been blind sided over the years - but I always get up and proceed to the next challenge. Wonder Woman once told me I must have some kind of personality defect - and I wouldn't disagree. But I do make honey money.

 

[ChemEng]

God... the first part of my Q3 this year was awful. The good news is that it wont take much to improve it for Q4...

 

[ChemEng]

So is today showing the support for the new highs all the bulls are looking for? Or is it a small bump up on the way to the correction? Anyone? Im leaning towards the latter... Just curious what the thoughts of those smarter than I are...

 

[Pilgrim]

So is today showing the support for the new highs all the bulls are looking for? Or is it a small bump up on the way to the correction? Anyone? Im leaning towards the latter... Just curious what the thoughts of those smarter than I are...

Like WHO!!! That mythical trillionaire who knows what the market will do before it does it?

As for today, ignore everything that happens before the beige book at 2pm. The way things have been going, the markets will move sharply on the report. (See mythical individual mentioned above to know which way they will go.)

 

[airlift]

Forget about smarts, you seem to be a "brain" in your own right! A trader, Kevin Ferris (I believe that's his name), at Bloomberg.com was interviewed right now. His opinion is to pay attention to the Beige Book contents this afternoon. He opines that more downside is probable this afternoon. I am still in G, and perhaps I will miss out some, but October is a tricky month, and I decided to let this play out this week! Good Luck! --

So is today showing the support for the new highs all the bulls are looking for? Or is it a small bump up on the way to the correction? Anyone? Im leaning towards the latter... Just curious what the thoughts of those smarter than I are...

 

[Birchtree]

What you are seeing is history being made, only few recognize it. The predominant sentiment remains bearish and that gives me confidence. Help me if you can I'm feelin down sure appreciate your being round - the song of the bears. If the S&P 500 breaks through the upper channel and holds it on a retest, that will mark the beginning of a new upward bull market trend. Great pin action today. Time to start kickin some heineken.

 

[dell]

The market appears to anticipate a positive Beige book report. We'll see.

Dell

 

[ChemEng]

I havent been tracking the markets much lately, but it seems my absense is just what I needed. There may be something to this buy and hold idea after all...

I was going to go 100% I today, but got caught up in an NSPS town hall. It seems like big changes are in the tubes for those of us not "lucky" enough to be in the early spirals...

Anyone got any success stories from NSPS yet? Im still trying to understand how civilians get a regular and on-time evaluation from the green-suiters. I dont think that its happened once since Ive been civil service. And now my performance pay will be tied to it?? Doest make sense to me... *sighs*

 

[nnuut]

It's all about saving $$$$! YUCK!!:nuts:

 

[ChemEng]

I was thinking yesterday (watch out!!!) about my yearly contributions to TSP. Right now Im putting in the same amount of money each paycheck totalling $15k/year. But wouldnt I get better results if I paid more early in the year and phased it down to the matching 5% by years end? That would put a larger portion of my $15k in my account earlier in the year to accrue interest for a few more month instead of with the uniform distribution Im using now. Im not sure on the numbers right now, just curious if anyone does this?

 

[ChemEng]

I put some number to the idea and here are some numbers I came up with for the contribution amounts for each paycheck. For the fast schedule, I generated linear function using 5% as the last contribution and $596 as the midpoint. That is WAY too aggressive for me so I put together the Medium Schedule where the endpoints arent more than 20% different.

Assumptions:
1. Minimum %age for last contribution has to be at least 5% to capture matching funds. (This is hard limit for Fast assumption.)
2. 26 paychecks a year.
3. 6% uniform return.

Uniform Medium Fast
$596.15 $835.80 $1,075.00
$596.15 $816.70 $1,036.78
$596.15 $797.59 $998.55
$596.15 $778.49 $960.33
$596.15 $759.38 $922.10
$596.15 $740.28 $883.88
$596.15 $721.18 $845.66
$596.15 $702.07 $807.43
$596.15 $682.97 $769.21
$596.15 $663.86 $730.98
$596.15 $644.76 $692.76
$596.15 $625.66 $654.54
$596.15 $606.55 $616.31
$596.15 $587.45 $578.09
$596.15 $568.34 $539.86
$596.15 $549.24 $501.64
$596.15 $530.14 $463.42
$596.15 $511.03 $425.19
$596.15 $491.93 $386.97
$596.15 $472.82 $348.74
$596.15 $453.72 $310.52
$596.15 $434.62 $272.30
$596.15 $415.51 $234.07
$596.15 $396.41 $195.85
$596.15 $377.30 $157.62
$596.15 $358.20 $119.40

BFOs (Blinding Flashes of the Obvious)
For each year using Medium and Fast schedules will create greater returns than with the Uniform schedule. The Medium schedule generates $89 more a year than the Uniform schedule; the Fast schedule generates $161 more a year than the Uniform schedule. When invested for 30 years at 6%, the Medium schedule will generate $7k more than the Uniform schedule and the Fast schedule will generate $12.5k more than the Uniform schedule.

Does anyone do this? The only "cost" that I see would be changing the contributions for each paycheck. But the system the Army uses to do this (EBIS) is certainly no more difficult than doing an IFT on TSP.gov.

 

[Broham]

Maybe you are over analyzing abit here. I don't think adding more money early would be a sure thing like you think UNLESS you are investing in ALL G and F. Lets say you invest more early like you describe, but do so in the stock funds. If those stock funds are losing money early, you would be losing more money...

 

[Birchtree]

The advantage of DCA is that you roll with the consequences - buy by fate. The objective is to accumulate as many shares as possible - some will cost more as we rally providing fewer shares and then some will cost less when we correct buying more shares.

 

[sugarandspice]

The advantage of DCA is that you roll with the consequences - buy by fate.

Rolling with consequences and using fate are not advantages. There risks and guesses. DCA works when you use it right but not when you leave it to fate.

It also works if you sell your soul to the devil for eternal life. Then you never care what the price is.

 

[Birchtree]

Eternal life - that's my secret. My last name is Grey. No wonder DCA works like a charm for me. Not afraid to live dangerously. Snort.

 

[ChemEng]

Maybe you are over analyzing abit here. I don't think adding more money early would be a sure thing like you think UNLESS you are investing in ALL G and F. Lets say you invest more early like you describe, but do so in the stock funds. If those stock funds are losing money early, you would be losing more money...

Couldnt you use that same argument against any kind of dollar averaging investment strategy? I think my options are pretty much limited there...

Im just trying to decide if there is any value in putting more money into the TSP earlier as opposed to uniformly. My intuition (and all my MBA finance classes) tell me that there is, so I was surprised to see it not being taken advantage of when the opportunity was available. Changing every pay period may not be the right answer, but it does show that this approach does have merit.

 

[ChemEng]

Im tempted to jump 100%I today...

 

[ChemEng]

Im still lost in a dark house with most of this-and there isnt the faintest sliver of light around to let me know Im pointed in the right direction.

I am getting familiar with the tools used for the analysis, but still missing the big piece about how they are combined to point to trends and potential forecasts. Its highly frustrating. Almost to the point of switching entirely to a buy and hold position. *shrug*