Charting: Getting Testy

___
Good evening

Trading day 19, the last day of February, and the stats aren't great (but not horrible)

• SPX, 50% winning ratio with -.20% average returns
• R2K, 40% winning ratio with -.28% average returns
  
• AGG, 64% winning ratio with .08% average returns

___
AGG, 30-min

• Traveling up, price was rejected at 50% of the AB wave at C (typical)
• The blue box is an area with key price levels for both buyers & sellers
• Look for a bounce within the yellow circle (an area with a rising trendline at 25% of the AB wave
• Past 8 days has seen a great deal of volatility, several large price swings, if equities drop, then I expect to fill the 111.58 gap quickly

___
SPX, 30-min

• Prices held up well today, 2103 is an area of interest for me
• If the 1-3 trendline gets breached, I'll look for a test of 2096
• If 2096 gets breached, I'll look for a test of the 2-4 trendline, somewhere in the 2070 area

___
W4500, 30-min

• Prices held up well today, 1094 is an area of interest for me
• If 1094 gets breached, I'll look for a test of 1088, then 1077
• Within the yellow box, Impressive consolidation of the MACD

___
Transports, 30-min

• Weakest of the major indexes I track
• The once awesome 5-6 trendline has been breached for a 2nd time
• The 3-4 trendline has been breached (look for a rejection of this line on the way back up)
• Today, we tested the 1-2 trendline and it held, will it hold tomorrow?

___
NASDAQ 100, 30-min

• Strongest of the indexes I track (love the tight consolidation)
• Today, we tested the 3-4 trendline and it held, will it hold tomorrow?
• If the 3-4 trendline gets breached, then I'd like to see a test of the 1-2 trendline

___
Looking for character changes, I tend to watch the futures throughout the evening and all the way up till the open, the past 3 days have shown some subtle changes. While the month of February was relatively stable, I wouldn't be surprised to see some induced volatility as we head into the 1st week of March.

Take care…Jason

 

[Guest]

Thanks for the insights. Its nice to have more analysis.

 

[JTH]

Thanks!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Nice analysis and chart work Jason. Looks like we're both thinking the same thing here. Nice to see confirmation.

 

[JTH]

Nice analysis and chart work Jason. Looks like we're both thinking the same thing here. Nice to see confirmation.

Yea we need a fire-sale, not finding too many ETFs that look like a good value and I don't want to go short.

 

[kb9nvh]

So ...to me this looks like jumping into F as we head into march might be a good move for a guy in G right now?