CASTAWAY'S account talk

[Castaway]

Well, a little R&R does wonders! Just got back and was surprised that the market has continued its upward trend.

I was fortunate enough to get an IFT off on 28/02/10 moving out of the G fund and in to the C=20 and S=80 in time to catch the recent momentum. Unfortunately, I forgot to change AutoTracker (still shows 100% G) so I lost some ground in the running tally.

I am still trying to figure out what Germany's real hang up is with bailing out Greece. I am reading all kinds of conflicting stories over here. Whatever their hang-up is, it surely hasn't affected overseas banking stocks, specifically Allied Irish Banks (AIB). I wish I had never sold that position several weeks ago !

Win some, loose some.

 

[Castaway]

To make a wrong right

Well, I decided today was the best day to try and restore my AutoTracker to my actual TSP allocation. I lost some nice gains on the AT, but at least I am on the plus with my TSP account (sitting on a 55.39% PIP, so I must be doing something right)

:cheesy: Yeah, I am happily bragging a bit........... After a nearly 50% profit loss in 2008, anything positive these days is worth bragging about!

GLTA!

 

[Castaway]

Feds keep rates low

I see many members IFT's running for safety after the nice gains of late. With the Feds announcement, I am anticipating new money to continue entering the market. There may be a short profit pull-back in terms of rate of return, however I don't believe the broader market will give up much and returns to remain be positive.

I have considered running for G, however that would be my final move until next month and we still have a lot of steam for a historically lackluster trading month.

All I can say, is I hope I am right.

 

[Castaway]

Augh! I must be bi-polar. Made the big decision to run for G after all based on two major events. I was taken off guard with the passage of the Universal Health Care and recent opportunity to buy a farm. Yes, the later had a profound impact on my desire to accept risk. While today appears to be one of the worse days to initiate an IFT, it may also prove to have been the smartest thing I have done in the markets lately.

I never though it would happen and have deep reservations on its short-term success. I do not argue that the US has been lagging other nations with a Universal HC system, but this just doesn't seem to be well thought out and another hasty move to correct a problem with another problem (familiar with the USFSPA?). How many presidencies have tried and failed to implement such a system? I would not doubt that this is boiler-plated off of the Clinton attempt based on the construct and I have no doubts that it will be one of the most reformed (patched up) acts in history.

OK, I apologize for commenting on politics.

I made the G move and now will live with it through the remainder of March. Now I will go open a bottle of my best and try and forget what I have done.

 

[tsptalk]

So the farm is a done deal? I believe that will be a very good investment. Good luck with it!

 

[Castaway]

I am really hoping so. I understand I am the highest bid going in and now have to wait on the bank to accept the offer (it is an REO bank owned property). I don't think there is a chance of getting out-bid, but...

Its actually is a piece of property my father owned in the 1970's, which will give me full ownership of a 9 acre pond/lake that connects with our existing farm. Unfortunately, my wife has no interest in farm life, which is why were have not been hasty to leave Germany. No Green Acres :blink:

 

[Castaway]

CASTAWAY Just Bought the Farm! (in a good way)

Looks like the bank accepted my offer on the farm for a ridiculously low bid, and significantly less than its 2007 appraised value (10 acres, house, barns, some pond access for under $36K!) If this is not a sign of desperation for banks to free up their foreclosure liability, what is?

It also looks like my IFT out of stocks wasn't such a bad move either. I would have stayed in the C and S funds, yet needed to reduce my personal risk exposure. I remain confident that the last few days of declines are only short term consolidation, and a significant reversal is due.

It appears the banking crisis is still playing havoc on the markets. Take a sprig of failing banks, throw in a earth-shattering, ground breaking health care system, a dash of unemployment and sour GDP and you have a recipe for investor caution.

Like most of Europe, I find the Germans are becoming more concerned about the overall banking crisis. In talking with neighbors, it is not so much a lack of confidence in their own banking system, but the economic impact of Germany bailing out other countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal). It is a reminder of the economic impact felt by West Germany in equalizing and naturalizing East Germany after the wall came down or the conversion to the Euro. Fears buoy the question, "just how much more pounding can Germany's financial system absorb?" of just how much mo here in Europe The DOW appears to hold strength.

My sentiment is "cautiously" Bullish :worried:

Good luck all!

 

[Castaway]

Europes Worst Fears

It seems that the kettle is boiling now for more bad news here in Europe. Concerns with a weakening Euro and rising inflation are becoming more and more evident each day. The dollar is once again becoming a safe haven for world currencies and recent declines in the I Fund reflect this movement.

All I can say is that my neighbors who hunkered down and invested early in the dollar are starting to smile a bit more.

I have been very remiss on maintaining my tracker and pulled out of the I Fund weeks ago. I only sat at 80% for a few days before realizing my error. I am now holding in the G Fund after Tuesdays "Mother of all Pull-Backs," but wish I had waited to effect the trade until after today's close. As they say, don't try to time the market. I am confident there will be many more "Mothers" in the coming months, so watching the technicals will become extremely critical.:worried:

 

[grandma]

How's the farm purchase going, Castaway? Everything closed without discovery of liens, etc? I hope that is going well for you, too.

 

[Castaway]

Well grandma, we have had to extend the closing date twice now due to an issue with an old water well abandonment not being filed with the county environmental office. Seems someone drilled a new well a few years back but never recorded the capping of the old well Then make matters worse, someone back-filled the well pit with dirt and buried all the evidence (hopefully they didn't bury any thing else in the pit

Since I agreed to purchase the property "as-is," I am liable for mitigation of code and ordinance problems. I am still within the estimated closing costs, so not overly concerned. All other technical's passed inspections and the deed is unencumbered, so hopefully we will close this Friday.

Additionally, I was just notified by a local oil drilling company that they are reopening a previously defective well on my adjoining property. From what I gather, they are pumping again. With my lackluster performance of my latest IFT's, I could use some oil revenue!

 

[grandma]

Now wouldn't that be keen !

An oil producer amongst us !!

We will all hope FOR you !!!

 

[Castaway]

Mother of all Pull-backs

Unbelievable ride down yesterday! I couldn't sell fast enough and the sudden avalanche took took out several of my trailing stops like a kid in a candy shop. I recovered a few lost dollars but the damage to my Ameritrade account was significant. Unfortunately, now I am on hold as my transactions settle, sweating today's volatility trend.

My urge is to move to F Fund, but with such a major market correction a recovery bounce is due. I just hope it has the momentum to recoup some losses I suffered jumping back in to stocks. I am very surprised that folks are not adverse to jumping in to the I Fund. From over here in Germany, fears of the Euro collapsing are running deep; a longing to return to the DM.

Best news of the day is I just closed on the farm property free and clear. I may now be broke, but at least I have a lot to set up my tent on

 

[Elgallo]

Best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.

Where abouts in Germany are you? I spent my time over there as a military brat when I was in high school in Karlsruhe in the mid 60's.

Congrats on the close. Its a good feeling isn't it.

I dedicate this to you:

Green acres is the place for me.
Farm livin' is the life for me.
Land spreadin' out so far and wide
Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside.

New York is where I'd rather stay.
I get allergic smelling hay.
I just adore a penthouse view.
Dah-ling I love you but give me Park Avenue.

...The chores.
...The stores.
...Fresh air.
...Times Square

You are my wife.
Good bye, city life.
Green Acres we are there.

 

[Castaway]

HAHAHA! Too funny! When my parents bought their farm in 1967, the Realtor/friend had a huge sign painted with GREEN ACRES and hung it on the side of the house. It was quite fitting, as my parents were similar in character to the Douglas' (apart from the fact that my mother did not have a Hungarian dialect). I still occasionally watch the re-runs.

For now we live in Mannheim, yet have lived in Bad Aibling/Tutenhausen, Ramstein and Dexheim. I know that Karlsruhe was where Smiley and Phillips barracks were. A friend here lived at Paul Revere Village in the early 60's, about the time they build the Berlin Wall and was here to watch it come down. I think they closed those kassernes in the late 80's early 90's? You must have been here in the days when there was a Kasserne on every street corner. Not many left anymore.

If the dollar keeps getting stronger, Europe may once again, be a great place to live/work.

 

[Castaway]

YAHOO! Now this is the direction the markets should be heading!

Let's just hope this bounce will keep bouncing so as to recover from last weeks "panic driven" losses.

I didn't think this market was ready to die :laugh: