Carnac's Corner

[Tempest]

So whats the concensus?? Should I be out of the stocks now, or what until the end of the year??

YM

Look at it this way if you had got out of stocks in mid August when everyone was running around on deck saying the sky is falling and then a repeat performance of that in November-you would have to buy in at a higher price today.

I went into 100% in G once in the summer-and that is because I was under anesthesia in a hospital -went back 100% in equities after that.

Stay in. End of the year? So what. An artificial horizon for some tracker/poll/report. It's another end of the month and you have January after that. FWIW

Like the man said-Bull Markets hate company.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/images/2004/12/22/22_12_2004_street bull.jpg

 

[The_Technician]

Just about every indicator of the Crystal Ball's say stay out......oh, U may gain a small percentage today or tomorrow, but the risks are extremely high....it ain't worth it.....we're at the pinnacle of a major decision moment. After 3% runup over the last several days.....do u really think it will go up more?

Carnac

The NYSE removed the trading curbs in the recent past right.....under these risks alone at the end of the year, with poor economics and near a market top, does it make sense to be in a position to lose alot of your savings???

Of all market circumstances that we have seen in the past, is this one circumstance not one to be very very careful of......?

Is it worth just protecting your savings one time, no matter what happens? I could care less if I'm right or wrong, neither should u. At this moment it doesn't matter if anyone is right or wrong, its protect your assets time!!!

I wouldn't discount the possibility that the market may hang for a few days and then drop like a brick........and it goes up, how far do u think it will go.......I doubt it would jump much.....in any case, I won't be in it......

Ah, no stress.

Have a happy holiday all.

Carnac

 

[Tempest]

There it is- a strong buy signal.

 

[poolman]

The NYSE removed the trading curbs in the recent past right.....under these risks alone at the end of the year, with poor economics and near a market top, does it make sense to be in a position to lose alot of your savings???

Of all market circumstances that we have seen in the past, is this one circumstance not one to be very very careful of......?

Is it worth just protecting your savings one time, no matter what happens? I could care less if I'm right or wrong, neither should u. At this moment it doesn't matter if anyone is right or wrong, its protect your assets time!!!

I wouldn't discount the possibility that the market may hang for a few days and then drop like a brick........and it goes up, how far do u think it will go.......I doubt it would jump much.....in any case, I won't be in it......

Ah, no stress.

Have a happy holiday all.

Carnac

 

[youngMoney]

There is alot of good discussion about what direction the stock market is going to go. I'm in 25% C, 50% S, and 25% I. I only have about $6,000 in my account and I have well over 30 years to continue socking away as much as I can. Until I really get comfortable with all the lingo and really get a feel on what the market does in certain situations I think I will stay with my buy and hold strategy and invest in C, S, and I. I have plenty of time. Although due to what I have been reading in the forums abou the falling of the dollar, I wonder if I should be 25% C, 25% S, and 50% I??


YM

 

[The_Technician]

The NYSE removed the trading curbs in the recent past right.....under these risks alone at the end of the year, with poor economics and near a market top, does it make sense to be in a position to lose alot of your savings???

Of all market circumstances that we have seen in the past, is this one circumstance not one to be very very careful of......?

Is it worth just protecting your savings one time, no matter what happens? I could care less if I'm right or wrong, neither should u. At this moment it doesn't matter if anyone is right or wrong, its protect your assets time!!!

I wouldn't discount the possibility that the market may hang for a few days and then drop like a brick........and it goes up, how far do u think it will go.......I doubt it would jump much.....in any case, I won't be in it......

Ah, no stress.

Have a happy holiday all.

Carnac

Do I hear somebody taking a deep gulp yet??? I wonder if the markets will stop 10% down.....

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Happy New Year to All, I hope everybody had a Merry Christmas....Jesus had the "premier beliefs" of all religious claims, there must have been a reason....maybe they saw the sad side of mankind once to many times...and they haven't disappeared.....it must have to do with lack of knowledge of history.

Markets seem to be ending the year on a positive jump, but next year is looking recessionary. I suppose it all depends on how fast the US can start manufacturing products....the faster, the less recessionary effects felt overall in the economy.

Looks like the CB's have a few dates of interest over the next couple of weeks....be leary. We could break 1400's on the S&P 500 in a blink.

F fund is moving inversly to the markets and is indicating a comeback over the next week plus at least till eom if not more. Expecting .75% gain in the F at least, more than the other funds by .25%.

Don't drive and drink, and if you don't have to....don't drive anywhere especially later at night.

Keep safe.

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Huh, markets going down....so much for snake oil salesmen.....

F fund sure looks tight of late....whats it up 2% plus over the last week or so....

Carnac

 

[poolman]

Huh, markets going down....so much for snake oil salesmen.....

F fund sure looks tight of late....whats it up 2% plus over the last week or so....

Carnac

What's your crystal's saying ? Any short trades ?

 

[The_Technician]

What's your crystal's saying ? Any short trades ?

Well the funds are down, problem is the market confidence is too....so the CB's data is rather meaningless at the moment.... but, I could see if the market gets down below 1400 on the S&P it could be interesting for a couple of days in and then out....

At the moment, F fund is KING....

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Looks like the CB's have a few dates of interest over the next couple of weeks....be leary. We could break 1400's on the S&P 500 in a blink.

F fund is moving inversly to the markets and is indicating a comeback over the next week plus at least till eom if not more. Expecting .75% gain in the F at least, more than the other funds by .25%.


Carnac

Well, its not like it was late advise.... but we're below 1400 now....but I'm sure most of everyone already had it figured out.....

I think I would wait until news starts sounding alot more positive before getting enthusiastic about the market.

1360 then to 1290 next.

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Well, its not like it was late advise.... but we're below 1400 now....but I'm sure most of everyone already had it figured out.....

I think I would wait until news starts sounding alot more positive before getting enthusiastic about the market.

1360 then to 1290 next.

Carnac

Before I get going, I want to thank mamkin for her comment this morning....you're a jewel.

After reviewing the markets it seems a head jerk could be forming....it looks as if the markets have bottomed, but it is prime time for a sudden drop in the markets catching everyone off guard. The top line is coming down in the S&P and the future way of the markets are being shown to you in the Wilshire......Economic news isn't supporting a good market advance from here so I'd still keep vigilant. We could get a temporary bump up, but I'd continue to look below 1300 over the next 6 months.

F fund seems to be doing the Bunny thing, you know the battery one...it just keeps going and going and going.....

Have a good'n.

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

After reviewing the markets it seems a head jerk could be forming....it looks as if the markets have bottomed, but it is prime time for a sudden drop in the markets catching everyone off guard.

Its turning into more like a head snap it seems.....Hang Seng down 5% or more....Nikkie down over 3%.....

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Its turning into more like a head snap it seems.....Hang Seng down 5% or more....Nikkie down over 3%.....

Carnac

Subject: Situational awareness of F fund.

For those of you out of the F fund debating on moving into the fund it may help to understand the situation. Since the market is relatively new to a breakdown, major gains can be made on the onset in bonds. It would be prudent to move into F early, some who are not are already a month late…..

The CB’s indicate the F still has room to go up and any down trend will have minimal impact on returns. Markets have broken the crucial support point this morning. They will find a temporary bottom soon, but until then, the F still looks good for the near term.

F is King right now, its fairly safe and producing good returns for the onset.

Good luck with your trades!

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

Well, its not like it was late advise.... but we're below 1400 now....but I'm sure most of everyone already had it figured out.....

I think I would wait until news starts sounding alot more positive before getting enthusiastic about the market.

1360 then to 1290 next.

Carnac

1360's were rather quick......we are due a pause, just exactly when is anybody's guess....but I'm speculating after yesterday's market performances they will try soon. F fund took a minor hit but I still believe we have a few days left in her....

After this pause, its going to get interesting.......it would still pay to stay out of stocks whenever questionable...

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

1360's were rather quick......we are due a pause, just exactly when is anybody's guess....but I'm speculating after yesterday's market performances they will try soon. F fund took a minor hit but I still believe we have a few days left in her....

After this pause, its going to get interesting.......it would still pay to stay out of stocks whenever questionable...

Carnac

I don't know about ya'll, but I'm starting to get saliva forming at the lips....only thing that worries me is the obvious situation they created with the market being overextended last fall and the future economics as drastic as it could be.....a response to this downdraft at this time could be rather nil....

Carnac

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

spx down 2.95% today...buy n hold "THIS" Tracy Ray

 

[The_Technician]

spx down 2.95% today...buy n hold "THIS" Tracy Ray

hey...when was the limits intially going to start...weren't they suppose to start in January???? Anybody???

 

[Tomncath]

hey...when was the limits intially going to start...weren't they suppose to start in January???? Anybody???

March or April....

 

[The_Technician]

I don't know about ya'll, but I'm starting to get saliva forming at the lips....only thing that worries me is the obvious situation they created with the market being overextended last fall and the future economics as drastic as it could be.....a response to this downdraft at this time could be rather nil....

Carnac

I see the Fed finally recognized a problem....but its not all the Fed's doing, raw materials have been gunning for failure for a year now....it's mainly the piggyness of these providers that has put a stop into the world economics....too much profit in too short of time, profits should be around the yearly average over the recent past 23-30 years...there isn't really any place for gouging....its just like raising taxes, and it wrecks economies and households.

Looking for that short term entry....any long term rebound is out of the books as of right now technically. The downdraft is pulling hard on the markets right now....

F fund is still the King. You should be up around 3% since 27 Dec if you got in then......

Carnac