Carnac's Corner

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The_Technician said:
I will say this much, the CB's are indicating wide variations in swings for the near future, with a downstroke upon us. Other than that, I would expect to see alot of market manipulation like we have had for the last several days at the last hour.

I have data from 2000 to compare against and besides being about a month off, the similarities are uncanny.....the market was taking drops after Oct 2000 of proportions that would indicate we could see below higher 1300's before year end in the S&P 500 .....

Removing the stops in the NYSE trading is eye opening....you could lose your shirt in one day. I'm thinking that we could get a week or so of severe downdraft and then a rebuild for the next year.

Dollar is having a rising tendency, commodities will drop and the US will get to work again while the third world will have growing pains and the other OS countries will suffer economically as the US economy responds a bit.

I don't want to be in the market for that downdraft. It will be interesting to discuss the timeframe of when it will happen, will it be before end of year or right after the new year???? Right at the moment the CB's indicate that there is dates of interest starting around the 13th of Dec thru Christmas......1300's is quiet a possibility.



Carnac
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I had edited this...I just wanted to make sure ya'll reread this.

Carnac
 
The_Technician said:
The CB's are in the F and if you ain't ....maybe you should be......

Carnac
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I did do some relative calculations on what could be expected if the market/economy continues to dive (a very likely possibility) and I came up with numbers in the S&P of around low 1200's. Of course, its just a fair try at projection in the future of about year or so......

Please, I'd love to hear some comments on this matter.

Carnac
 
Does anybody care that the S&P gapped up 4.72 points on the open today? Doesn't the market usually go back and fill gaps such as this?
 
The_Technician said:
The CB's say get out....looking at a 24 cent +FV tonight as things stand.....then the next day, a - FV follows..."getting on the wrong side" of FV could be forming.

Carnac
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Uuuuuhh......I think that 42 cent'r FV is gonna bite hard on someone tomorrow....I was afraid of that happening.....I wish whomever good luck with it......

Carnac
 
nnuut said:
Tech, you were right on the Money with that FV estimate, GOOD WORK! :D
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Thanks Norman....nice to be appreciated ........I agree with 12% that there looks at the moment another +FV (+.14) on the books if the markets stay put, but its still early and I expect that will have a tendency to dissipate by EOD. So the final expectation is no FV today.

I don't like the High position we're in and its a good bet we get a bit of a downdraft.

If the Fed's lower interest rates, I would look for cheaper dollar which makes I fund attractive (it sure has played 2nd fiddle to the C and S funds of late), and of course, Oil will rise and so will gasoline. Those two are who you need to watch out for, they basically control the economics, if they are trying to unload their positions, watch for the drop in interest rates.

Wish I could just go solar, rebuild my truck into an all electric (it ain't hard, its just the batteries cost a bit more at the moment).

Carnac
 
The_Technician said:
Thanks Norman....nice to be appreciated ........I agree with 12% that there looks at the moment another +FV (+.14) on the books if the markets stay put, but its still early and I expect that will have a tendency to dissipate by EOD. So the final expectation is no FV today.

I don't like the High position we're in and its a good bet we get a bit of a downdraft.

If the Fed's lower interest rates, I would look for cheaper dollar which makes I fund attractive (it sure has played 2nd fiddle to the C and S funds of late), and of course, Oil will rise and so will gasoline. Those two are who you need to watch out for, they basically control the economics, if they are trying to unload their positions, watch for the drop in interest rates.

Wish I could just go solar, rebuild my truck into an all electric (it ain't hard, its just the batteries cost a bit more at the moment).

Carnac
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The FV question is a close one today.....if we get an FV, it could add up to 13 cents to the I closing at 25.33, that's a plus 13 cent FV on top of the -42 from yesterday....it really depends on parties that control this thing.....not really a reliable investment when you could have just bought either the C or S fund and maybe do the same thing.....

Carnac
 
Opportunities for the market to vastly turn around, maybe to 1360's on the S&P500 first of next week is upon us- based on recent market run....keep a watch out.

Carnac
 
nnuut said:
You're lookin' at the SloWSto I see!!:D
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Nope....but good try......but U better watch out, U better not cry....cause ole Carnac is telling U why...........heheheheheheh.....:D

I believe the Fed will be reluctant to drop interest rates as much as everyone would like them too....we're in a delicate situation and drastic moves just don't work in these situations........

Carnac
 
The_Technician said:
Nope....but good try......but U better watch out, U better not cry....cause ole Carnac is telling U why...........heheheheheheh.....:D

I believe the Fed will be reluctant to drop interest rates as much as everyone would like them too....we're in a delicate situation and drastic moves just don't work in these situations........

Carnac
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I hear ya, and I see the markets approching the top quickly, will just have to wait and see. I'm leaning in the direction of going long on this one.:cool:
 
nnuut said:
I hear ya, and I see the markets approching the top quickly, will just have to wait and see. I'm leaning in the direction of going long on this one.:cool:
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Just about every indicator of the Crystal Ball's say stay out......oh, U may gain a small percentage today or tomorrow, but the risks are extremely high....it ain't worth it.....we're at the pinnacle of a major decision moment. After 3% runup over the last several days.....do u really think it will go up more?

Carnac
 
Recession will be avoided because household wealth in the stock market will offset weakness in the U.S. housing market. The sentiment out there is exceptionally bearish and that is good news from a contrarian point of view, since bull markets thrive on the kind of skepticism we are seeing right now. So we will undoubtedly cluck our way to new all-time highs before the year ends. My number is 15,900 - so I need at least 2,300 more points in the next 15 trading days to re-establish my bullish credibility. Enjoy the giggles.
 
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