Stocks were mixed again yesterday as the Dow lost 11-points, the S&P was up slightly, small caps led the way up, and the I-fund fell sharply. Bonds had a nice and broke above some key resistance.
[TABLE="width: 79%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The indices opened lower and the Dow was down about 90-points at the morning lows, but then we saw buyers step up. Barring any major reversals today, we should see the I-fund outperform today as the international stocks may play off of yesterday's afternoon strength in the U.S. indices.
After the negative outside reversal day on Tuesday, the SPY (S&P 500) opened lower yesterday as we might expect, almost filled its open gap and was close to hitting the 20-day EMA, but it did fall through the support line of the rising wedge. Being above the 20 and 50-day EMA is a positive. Breaking below the wedge is a warning. The index closed strongly but it still made a lower high and a lower low (compared to Tuesday) so we'll have to see some positive action today to break this very short-term down trend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Small caps officially closed their gap on the Russell 2000, and the 20-day EMA has passed its test so far. This chart looks more "toppy" then flag-like, so that 20-day EMA is important. If the 50-day EMA is tested, the index will have to shave a few more percentage points off to get there.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is trading day #9 in March, which is within a pretty strong 4-day period, but some time next week we start the second half of March and you can see that the positive seasonality bias drops off significantly after day #12.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds rallied and the ETFs took back the 200-day EMAs yesterday. Looks like they want to stay within the trading range (red lines) a little longer since the bottom of the range seems to have been successfully tested.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts and indicators, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
