burrocrat's Account Talk

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OBGibby said:
The last couple years I've tried a few different strategies that incorporated more of a timing flavor. I don't think it's really done much good either way. In 2014 I'm leaning toward going back to a buy-and-hold mode.
My PIP for the past five years:
2009 +29.86%
2010 +13.31%
2011 -0.74%
2012 +11.42%
2013 +11/12%
Click to expand...

that's like an average 13% return. double mine. nice.

what are you going to do with all the loot, moneybags?

do you follow a premium service or what are your indicators that tell you when to trade? i just go with sentiment mainly, but my sentiment includes how ridiculous the fundementals are, even though i can't understand technical analysis. but if jth, frixxxx, coolhand, bullit, or boghie say something is likely to happen then i pay a lot of attention to that.
 
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Boghie said:
Burro,

Since the long term trend in the equities market is for the damn thing to go up, why not adjust your strategy a bit. Like, try to market time yourself out of the market for major corrections. Be in the market as the norm. Check out when things seem to be tanking. You will have time to see it.

They don't pay the rich plutocrat 1%er CEOs and their friends in the hedge funds for losing money. They do what they can to increase their profits. If that is the goal than the earnings part (as a whole) will go up. Only the gubmint gets all cheery about sending money to dead people and projects. The other 1%ers try to scrape the waste from the bottom of their shoes...
Click to expand...

i don't approach it that way because it's like being a 'don't bettor' playing craps at the casino. you walk up to the table and put your money on the 'don't pass' line and you jinx the shooter. that is betting on failure, and i don't like to bet on failure, i like to bet on success, yo eleven. i believe.

so instead i sit on the side in safety (minus inflation) and wait for the hot roll. i know, i know, every toss of the dice is a random event. but if hard eight ain't hit for a long time then i expect to see 4-4 soon, it's like that. past performance is no indicator of future success, whatever.

even if i knew what it was i couldn't sit in a solid predictable profitable arrangement for very long because it would bore me and i would get fat and lazy, so i try to jam the deal, score the big one. the strategy you suggest is like sitting around watching a banana peel and betting on when someone will step on it and slip. i am more into finding a big ole pile of bananas and eating them all.
 
warning: nsfw.

this is my investment strategery in a nutshell. also it's my life strategery too. screw them all. i'm going to get what i have coming one of these days.

 
more burro end-of-year investing tips: "one hit to the body and one straight from the heart".

c'mon show it one time, give me the shot. that's how i'm going to take it down. yeah i should've held icos instead of pawning it, and bought ford at $2 but i was broke. so what. opportunities are a dime a dozen and come along everyday. one shot baby, one time baby, that's all i need. and i don't stop.

 
burrocrat said:
...do you follow a premium service or what are your indicators that tell you when to trade?...
Click to expand...

Tried a premium service for 2012 and did alright. Would have done just as well if I had stuck to buy-and-hold, though. Tried being more active this year and have met my goal for the year (11%) but I left a lot on the table considering if I had let it all ride with a buy-and-hold strategy I'd be sitting with two or three times that return. For the better part of the year I've been hesitant to go all in too often due to the fear of a major correction on the horizon. Those fears have heretofore proven wrong. I've come to the realization that the market is much smarter than I, and coupled with the fact that I can start withdrawing cash in ten years or at mandatory in 33 years (my preferred option), I should just let the money ride.
 
ok then, financial analysis done. time for a little year end personal introspection.

oh my, this is not good. my posts over the last 90 days average about 6 per day, that's borderline obsessive. and most of them are just me talking to myself. whoa, check it before you wreck it jackass.

i don't think there's any point in delving deeper until we fix some of the surface issues. new goal: 1 post per day, and make it a good one, preferrably about money or investing. and no more videos either.

whew, that wasn't so bad. i could do this head shrink stuff all day.
 
if today looks to end any kind of positive at the close, then i think i'm getting out this morning for the year with my meager gains. gonna start over fresh in a couple of weeks, tabula rasa.
 
ok, i've seen enough. usually i like to wait until just before the deadline so you guys don't front run my trades but...

i'm out. 100G cob 12/20 and done for the year. have a nice trip, see you next fall.
 
i love smart phones, i've computed almost exclusively by phone for over a year at least, but it has always bugged me how difficult it is to take a screenshot on one. so i finally ditched the samsung for an lg, merry xmas donkey.

sure the virtual non-buttons are backwards and take some getting used to, but i can screenshoot anything. and write on it!

View attachment 26372
 
ok then, back to the financial stuff.

i'm sitting at 4.98% on the tracker and can expect to finish 2013 at about 5.02%. out to g cash and no more trades so that's a done deal. i have two consecutive years without a losing trade averaging 10.69% (5.02 + 16.36 / 2) since i started my hit and git strategery, and a 4 full-year average 6.95% including two years of not knowing what i wanted to do. detroit and california would not be headed for inevitable bankruptcy if their high priced comptrollers managed a consistent 7% like the projections they lie about.

so i'm feeling pretty good about myself and my 7%. that is not bad. i'm hoping next year is more of a roller coaster instead of a rocket ride because i perform better in the midst of chaos. hell it could start early for all i care, crash baby crash, i'm ready for it.
 
free technology tip: if you want to find the hole in a $60 piece of software just give it to an 11 year old.

so he's cruising down a backcountry road in grand theft auto 5 after driving around jacking drug dealers and smacking ho's and ditching the cops in this lifted ford pickup listening to dr. dre and he spots a cow and jams on the brakes. 'hey, i've never ran over a cow before!'

then through the fence and across the field he goes until splat 'nice to meet you cow! get it dad? meat you? ha!'

it's nuts what they make for the youngsters these days. if they had video games like that when i was a kid, i would've spent way less time hustling pool and pitching pennies out back of the bowling alley. crazy.

i'm so proud. he hit that cow dead on, and it was trying to run away even.
 
oh yeah, i didn't think we'd get this kind of move so early in the game this year. show me a negative 0.75 to 1.25 by the deadline tomorrow and i'm going in. less and it's a fake out, more and it's a crash.
 
burrocrat said:
oh yeah, i didn't think we'd get this kind of move so early in the game this year. show me a negative 0.75 to 1.25 by the deadline tomorrow and i'm going in. less and it's a fake out, more and it's a crash.
Click to expand...
Hi Burro...I think it goes up for a dead cat bounce but overall drops more. However, I would be surprised if it fell significantly below 50 EMA...and I only say that because so many "experts" keep saying a big drop is not coming until later in year although some have been talking about a drop later in February.
 
a pffft dead cat bounce is what i'm worried about, i want to see the sinking stone, this is setting up nicely for a quick scalp, what will tomorrow bring?

my friends call me burro. well, that's not true, they call me way worse things than that. but you can call me burro.
 
burrocrat said:
a pffft dead cat bounce is what i'm worried about, i want to see the sinking stone, this is setting up nicely for a quick scalp, what will tomorrow bring?

my friends call me burro. well, that's not true, they call me way worse things than that. but you can call me burro.
Click to expand...
How about Ray Jay?:laugh:
 
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