Bull Pen - June 2006

[Griffin]

I make no claims to being some kind of expert, – I’m not and I wouldn’t be here if I was, but then again, even the “experts” make mistakes routinely. My view of this thread is to bring together a group of amateurs and collectively bring about useful and relevant discussions about where and when to move.

I do want to wish Milk Man a hearty “Happy Trails”

There is a lot of macro level economic talk that gets mixed in with the day to day stuff. While it has a purpose, the droning of the “chicken little” speeches, is underwhelming. If you want to read about the end of the world, you know where to go.

The purpose for this thread is to bring together the bulls and MAKE SOME MONEY :nuts:

All you bulls out there, If your getting this, let’s get this net up and running. The market is primed for some big gains.

Radio check, over.

 

[Birchtree]

Count me in up to my eyeballs. Snort, snort.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[The_Technician]

I make no claims to being some kind of expert, – I’m not and I wouldn’t be here if I was, but then again, even the “experts” make mistakes routinely. My view of this thread is to bring together a group of amateurs and collectively bring about useful and relevant discussions about where and when to move.

I do want to wish Milk Man a hearty “Happy Trails”

There is a lot of macro level economic talk that gets mixed in with the day to day stuff. While it has a purpose, the droning of the “chicken little” speeches, is underwhelming. If you want to read about the end of the world, you know where to go.

The purpose for this thread is to bring together the bulls and MAKE SOME MONEY :nuts:

All you bulls out there, If your getting this, let’s get this net up and running. The market is primed for some big gains.

Radio check, over.

I thought maybe I would post the fund levels....its June 7th 2006. May I say with a tone of giggles " BS away" ......

11.39 10.64 13.83 16.95 19.03

 

[Griffin]

I thought maybe I would post the fund levels....its June 7th 2006. May I say with a tone of giggles " BS away" ......

For the sake of civility, I am going to stay out of Bear country. I ask you show the same respect.

For those who count themselves among Bulls, the game is on . The DWCP and S&P are moving into the last half of the trading day and have broken that first level of critical resistance.

 

[Birchtree]

The CBOE 10 day put/call ratio surged last week to a record level of 122%, showing bearish sentiment - nice contrarian indicator, a bullish sign for the near term. I wouldn't worry about The Technician until he flips 180 degrees into the light - then run as fast as you can. Until then have fun.

 

[SystemTrader]

Another possibility is a rangebound summer (the S&P 500 bouncing in a channel from 1250 to 1300 and back) which will make neither permabulls nor doomsayers happy...

 

[Pilgrim]

Another possibility is a rangebound summer (the S&P 500 bouncing in a channel from 1250 to 1300 and back) which will make neither permabulls nor doomsayers happy...

If only we could be sure that would hapen, making money would be so easy....

 

[SystemTrader]

Well, I don't ever predict anything, so I have no idea if we'll have a rangebound summer or not. But it is a possibility. The summer tends to have more consolidation and rangebound behavior. My point was that the bulls and bears may both be wrong...at least for awhile.

If only we could be sure that would hapen, making money would be so easy....

 

[Pilgrim]

Well, I don't ever predict anything, so I have no idea if we'll have a rangebound summer or not. But it is a possibility. The summer tends to have more consolidation and rangebound behavior. My point was that the bulls and bears may both be wrong...at least for awhile.

T'was only a wistful longing for a world with some measure of certainty, not criticism at all...

 

[TiCKed]

In the spirit of the initial post, and as a closet Bull, and as a self proclaimed NON-expert, here's my contribution:

1) In the long run, the stock market goes up. As Bulls, we need to keep that in mind, and not be scared into "safety" without justifiable reasons. If we do that, we'd end up with pathetic YTD returns of, say, 0.38%!

2) "First, do no harm". As amateurs, it's very easy to fall into the trap of making daily trades. Imagine the REAL damage one could have done by doing that over the last few weeks. "Losing Money" (i.e. falling share prices), is often unavoidable. REAL damage is losing money, AND losing shares by trading in and out during these turbulent times.

That's what I've learned. "Investor, know thyself". And don't turn your retirement over to someone who talks fast, pats themselves on the back, and probably knows no more than you.

 

[SystemTrader]

No problem, I didn't take it as criticism. It will be interested to see what happens this summer. I do think a clean break and close below 1250 would be an ominous sign, if it happens...

T'was only a wistful longing for a world with some measure of certainty, not criticism at all...

 

[Griffin]

I share Systemtrader's sentiment, I would not be surprised if we had a repeat of last summer - a progressive step up, with a not so gentle step down - all within the channel set by the market highs and lows of the past two years, not counting the past three months - I attribute the past few months to dangerous speculation and greed. I think there is plenty of evidence to support the assumption that this election cycle mudslinging is going to be extremely intense, creating a lot of uncertainty within the market. Still, any cycling is an opportunity to make returns.

Speaking of range bound, what number's are folk's out there setting as your stops, and is there a general consensus that we are waiting on the right spark to get this baby moving higher?

 

[nnuut]

Hope I qualify as a BULL?
IF the summer ends up range bound you can still make money if you are nimble and catch the up swings and get out before the upper range level. Sounds EASY!! If it's between 1250 and 1300 I think it can be done, any closer and it's really tough. MOHO Like today, S&P down to 1253 i'm in to catch the bounce tomorrow then out again, HA! that's the plan we'll seeeeeeee?

 

[Pilgrim]

RevShark's public comments last night (6/6) were the most negative I have seen. Does anyone else read them as "run for cover and stay low for awhile" or am I reading them wrong? What does he see that we bulls-of-various-shades are missing?

 

[FundSurfer]

Seasonality tells us that the summer is likely to be down. I think this summer will see a drifting down with volitility. I expect that much like last year the market will pick up in the fall. You can make money with market chop, but you have to be patient and pick your entry and exit points carefully and not too greedily.

From where we are right now, I'm bullish for at least a 1%-1.5% gain. However, we are on soft footing, so I'll be quick to retreat and wait for another charge to join.

 

[Seth15701]

systemtrader could you please email me your new site?


Seth_Blue@yahoo.com

 

[Griffin]

RevShark's public comments last night (6/6) were the most negative I have seen. Does anyone else read them as "run for cover and stay low for awhile" or am I reading them wrong? What does he see that we bulls-of-various-shades are missing?

I think your interpretation of RevSharks comments is accurate. You have to keep in mind the world that he lives in. Rev is no fool and he can and will find money in most any market, short of an across the board bust. I suspect that his client base has taken somewhat of beating the past couple of weeks. Since, he has clients to answer too, I am sure that they are expecting him to be overtly cautious. Given that, I would not be suprised to hear him throwing up the caution flags, especially since a retest of May 24th's lows has been a real possibility and knowing that folks are starting to get itchy trigger fingers anticipating the expected recovery.

I know I pulled the trigger early this time, but when these things happen, they tend to be fast and furious, leaving a lot of people standing on the sidelines. Actually, I am very happy that I caught a good piece of this dip, assuming that a breakdown below the current channel does not occur.

 

[Show-me]

Never mind. My chart didn't work.

 

[robo]

I think your interpretation of RevSharks comments is accurate. You have to keep in mind the world that he lives in. Rev is no fool and he can and will find money in most any market, short of an across the board bust. I suspect that his client base has taken somewhat of beating the past couple of weeks. Since, he has clients to answer too, I am sure that they are expecting him to be overtly cautious. Given that, I would not be suprised to hear him throwing up the caution flags, especially since a retest of May 24th's lows has been a real possibility and knowing that folks are starting to get itchy trigger fingers anticipating the expected recovery.

I know I pulled the trigger early this time, but when these things happen, they tend to be fast and furious, leaving a lot of people standing on the sidelines. Actually, I am very happy that I caught a good piece of this dip, assuming that a breakdown below the current channel does not occur.

Sell when they are YELLING, BUY when they are CRYING. More pain to come, but all part of what was a "Very Overbought Market" that needed a rest!
When traders like the shark start getting cautious I know the bottom is NEAR!!!

Good Investing / Trading

 

[Griffin]

Sell when they are YELLING, BUY when they are CRYING. More pain to come, but all part of what was a "Very Overbought Market" that needed a rest!
When traders like the shark start getting cautious I know the bottom is NEAR!!!

Good Investing / Trading

Shark's already preping to get back in the game!

This reminds me of that commercial, starting with the little company and working up the food chain with CEO of the mega company saying "we have to be more nimble what would the guys at ....do?"

Maybe someday the suits at Goldman/Sachs will be saying "what would the guys (gender neutral) at TSP Talk do?":nuts: