Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[Wheels]

this is killing me..............what a colossal mistake I made yesterday - the third largest mistake of the year, possibly the second if the DWCP breaks above 1.6% for the day.

I was going through a tough stretch a while back and mooing over the day's events. This is what you said to me.

"....what you did yesterday does not matter it's tommorrow that counts."

Cut and paste from your post to here.

Also try to remember that you padded your account quite nicely in August.

 

[Birchtree]

I always like to recognize fate when it intervenes on my behalf - I'm humble that way. Maybe you can use a little humility, Dave.

 

[Griffin]

I was going through a tough stretch a while back and mooing over the day's events. This is what you said to me.

"....what you did yesterday does not matter it's tommorrow that counts."

Cut and paste from your post to here.

Also try to remember that you padded your account quite nicely in August.

Dave,

I'm not being sarcastic....thanks for the reminder. I expect we have several good days ahead, as this market climbs the wall of worry. Anyway the aggressive meter is at max, so I am going to get back in file behind the pointman. There are going to be many diffficult days ahead as the indicators start to scream, while the market steadily creeps higher, and the temptation to scratch the "get out" itch becomes frustrating.

 

[JOVARN]

I have been 100% G since 8/22 prior to that I was 70%I & 30%S.
When I woke up at 0500 yesterday and read the net news, I saw a big day was on its way but for me it was to late, congrats to all those who hit.
I sold the I @20.05 it is now 19.85 the real gain for me would have been the S which I sold @ 16.87 and it is now 17.11 a gain of 24 cents. A 17 cent gain was also seen in that time period for the C fund but Birch has kept us a-breast of that
I am still going to try and stick to my plan of holding out until the Christmas hype starts and I plan to catch all of that.
I think Appliances, TV’s, and as usual I-Pods/Technology will drive the market to new highs.
I agree with Tom when he spoke about those that are making many moves through out the month and time it takes to get it right. I have not been that skilled or nimble.
Many of my co-workers are following this site now and asking me why is so and so making that move and I am not? That brings me to the end of this thread, We all need to have an investment strategy and this site has done wonders in educating its readers. Many I know have abandoned the buy and hold G fund approach and have improved their holdings by following the moves of members of this site.

I am doing much better at Texas Holden; I made the final table twice this month unfortunately the tournaments were $1 entry and $2 entry so I cannot quit my day job yet. I also am having difficulty timing my winnings to a higher limit table. I took a really bad beat on a $33 table and lost 750K in chips on one hand.
Good luck to all

 

[sugarandspice]

Isn't this Friday quadruple witching?

 

[fabijo]

Man, looking at the Chaikin Money Flow for the S&P suggests there has been ALOT more buying of S&P than there has been selling. The buy/sell ratio has been rising fast since July 17.

 

[Griffin]

You would think that I would not even be thinking about making a move.....but this only a little refining....staying 100% stocks. The I-fund is looking like it could be setting up for a very nice run tomorrow, so I made a one day move and will slide back into the S shortly.

 

[Birchtree]

There has been a lot of money coming into the market to include the mids and small caps. Very healthy. From January 04 to the current time we have been looking at a simple basing pattern, a foundational price structure in which to lift off from. The longer the base, the higher the price pattern will travel once the base is completed.

We are in the "throttle up" stage. And poor Teddy is still shorting.

 

[Birchtree]

Panic - does anybody see any panic yet? Just wait as we get closer to Dow 11,600 and SPX 1326 the pain for Teddy will be monumental. There will be shorts covering popping like fresh...get the tourniquets - better yet never mind, just let'em bleed. This will be fun. Hoof revenge.

 

[nnuut]

Hey Birch, is that Teddy Bear?

 

[Fivetears]

Nope; quadruple DITCHING! Got all four 38's deep ditching the I Pit clear through Friday. :nuts:

Isn't this Friday quadruple witching?

 

[Griffin]

During the last 10 quaduraple witching days (3rd Friday of March, June, Sept, and December):

The S-Fund was down 6 of them (the worst drop was .60% last time - usually these drops were mild), however, it was down every single following Monday, and then a 50/50 shot for the following Tuesday.

The I Fund was down 4 of them (the worst drop being .76% - again most of the drops were relativly mild, but on days that were positive, the I significantly outperformed the S). On the following Monday, the I was up 3 times and down or even 7, and Tuesday was a 50/50 shot.

Quadruple witching day is not the problem.....it's the following Monday.

Yesterday, I parked the Griffin Egg in the I-fund; while fundamentally I am still Bullish over the next week or so, I will back out for Monday, either Today or Tomorrow, then it will be back to the S-Fund.

If May's highs are penetrated, even slightly, I will be in stocks regardless of this historic trend.

 

[nnuut]

More info on TWW!

• Week After is bearish. Since Q1 2000 only 9 of 26 were up and 5 occurred in December.
• TWWs tend to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during the 2000-2002 bear market.
• DOWN WEEKS TEND TO FOLLOW DOWN TWWs is a most interesting pattern. Since 1991, of 21 down TWWs, 17 following weeks were also down. This is surprising inasmuch as the previous decade had an exactly opposite pattern: There were 13 down TWWs then, but 12 up weeks followed them.
• TWWs in the second and third quarter (Worst Six Months May through October) are much weaker and the weeks following, horrendous. But in the first and fourth quarter (Best Six Months period November through April) a solid bullish bias is evident.
http://aol.hirschorg.com/aol_splash.asp

 

[Griffin]

More info on TWW!

• Week After is bearish. Since Q1 2000 only 9 of 26 were up and 5 occurred in December.
• TWWs tend to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during the 2000-2002 bear market.
• DOWN WEEKS TEND TO FOLLOW DOWN TWWs is a most interesting pattern. Since 1991, of 21 down TWWs, 17 following weeks were also down. This is surprising inasmuch as the previous decade had an exactly opposite pattern: There were 13 down TWWs then, but 12 up weeks followed them.
• TWWs in the second and third quarter (Worst Six Months May through October) are much weaker and the weeks following, horrendous. But in the first and fourth quarter (Best Six Months period November through April) a solid bullish bias is evident.
http://aol.hirschorg.com/aol_splash.asp

nnuut - more good info pointing to the fact that the day itself is not a real threat,

The foreign markets are all in moderately well formed bottom and could pop, a continuation of positive action of the last hour would help to facilitate this.

With the G likely to pay out tomorrow night, there is a temptation to take things to safe ground (and not with the F, high in it's channel), and I completely understand the decision of all who go there. However, I'm going to stick tomorrow out in the I and reevaluate then.

I don't see tomorrow being particularly risky. I believe the market will break May's highs the first opportunity it gets - there's too much fear of missing a run away market.

 

[Griffin]

Just to keep the competitive juices flowing - here's the short list on the tight race for the year's top spot -

Fundsurfer - 16.30% currently 100% G
Show Me - 15.34% currently 100% I
Griffin - 14.71% currently 100% I
Sugarandspice - 14.58% currently 100% I
Wheels - 13.98% currently 100% S
Fivetears - 12.32% currently 100% I

I Fund - 13.30%

Five of us are now beating the I-Fund - excellent work folks

 

[Show-me]

For the record I slipped back to the G fund yesterday.

 

[Griffin]

For the record I slipped back to the G fund yesterday.

Oops...I had that written down, but missed it on the calcs. Thanks for the catch.

Fundsurfer - 16.30% currently 100% G
Show Me - 15.34% currently 100% G
Griffin - 14.71% currently 100% I
Sugarandspice - 14.58% currently 100% I
Wheels - 13.98% currently 100% S
Fivetears - 12.32% currently 100% I

I Fund - 13.30%

 

[FundSurfer]

Five of us are now beating the I-Fund

Kind of makes me want to go 100% I-fund for the rest of the year!

 

[Griffin]

Kind of makes me want to go 100% I-fund for the rest of the year!

Here something I said on my account talk thread back in late May

Folks,

I have been war-gaming my strategy for coming out of this pullback. The big question on my mind was which fund was most likely to give up the best return. What I did was take the last three major pullbacks (6 August 04, 15 April 05, and 14 October 05) as my starting point and graphed the return to date of the funds following these pullbacks.

An amazingly obvious pattern presented itself. The S fund came out the gate as the top performer, followed by the C fund with the I fund coming in last (pitifully last in two out of three cases). I have attached an excel spreadsheet that shows these graphs. Keep in mind the Y axis is return to date, not fund price.

Further analysis revealed another striking pattern. While the S-fund had the highest growth rate initially, after about a month to two months, as the S-fund was leveling off going into the first correction, the I-fund then took off coming out of that correction.

So, here’s my strategy. Come out the gate 100% S, when it gets toppy, IFT to the G and wait for the correction to bottom, then IFT into the I-fund. This strategy would have yielded approximately 16 to 18% within the following 3 months in all three instances, if played perfectly.

One note: you will probably have to download the spreadsheet for the tabs to work properly.

I have been following this game plan through August, and now the question: is it time to make the mentioned switch?

I am already sitting in the I....the S&P opened above the last level of resistance before May's high. I am going to have to revisit my analysis and compare the turning point's relation to the previous high water mark.

The self quote comes from #37, page 4 of my account talk thread - you can get the spreadsheet there.

 

[FundSurfer]

Hold on there Grif.... I has recovered, it is S that is lagging at this point.

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These are the long term looks at these charts. If you look at short term, I looks good and S looks like it is near top of channel.

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