Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Man, if I was a Young Pup I'd be moving 'all in'. There is a lot of frightened dumb money moving. Tasty

Settled tariffs for all our major trading partners excepting Canada and kinda Mexico. Mexico is bending the knee, Canada is calling so often we don't bother answering the phone.

In the end, has anyone seen the crushing effect of tariffs? The FED estimates that tariffs were responsible for 0.08% of the 2.70% annualized inflation. So, without the bone crushing tariffs inflation would have been 2.62%. Dumping that stupid EV mandate will reduce inflation significantly more than that.

BTW, I am NOT a fan of tariffs. They are inflationary - but it is 'Simple Jack' thinking to believe it is a 1 to 1 bite to the consumer. All you have to do is offset the 15% increase (or likely less than that since it is likely that the exporter eats some of it) in costs with a 15% decrease in costs. Tariffs are also NOT applied anywhere except at point of entry. There are a LOT of things that go into pricing (likely the majority of the pricing) that are NOT tariffed.

 

[Boghie]

While everybody is terrified of the inflation report:



I wanna see what is happening to the Federal Gubmint's bottom line. The July 'Monthly Treasury Statement' has posted large deficit spending for as long as I have reviewed the MTS. Last year we ran over a $243 Billion deficit in July. Today, at 1400 EST the July report comes out.
United States Treasury 'Monthly Treasury Statement'

We shall see if we are spending my Social Security now or saving it for when I need it.

 

[Boghie]

For all the talk and yammering about spending cuts - it ain't happening:

FY2024
Revenue	330
Expenditures	574
Deficit	244

FY2025
Revenue	338
Expenditures	629
Deficit	291

All numbers are rounded. Why bother in millions (rounding error) when we be having a trillions problem!!!

Everybody thinks the Trumpster is a money miser capitalist pig only concerned about the bottom line. What he is is a real estate grinder used to playing with 'other peoples money'. I mean, he was not exactly cost conscious in his first term.

We are in trouble and the FED SHOULD NOT reduce interest rates just to allow more of the above. We are no longer 'going broke', we are there...

 

[Boghie]

I was in a panic all week - I lost 0.81% in the market value of my holdings



I could have traded out to G on Friday COB, and traded back into equities on Thursday COB and made some serious bank with today's move (if it holds, smart money incoming).

Or, I could have gone to G and missed today's move completely.

In the end, doesn't the following graphic actually appear more accurate:

 

[Boghie]

What is that process to start my retirement

 

[Boghie]

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered...

I'm not making much of a change, but a change it is:

• G: 20% - It makes a decent return for the safety it promises
• F: 10% - Whatever
• C: 30% - It still feelz stronk like bull
• S: 25% - It still feelz stronk like bull, what competes
• I: 15% - This is stronk like bull. With the EuroTrash off of Russian crack this will get better

We are talking a 7% allocation change to safety. Not much of not much. Basically, this provides a very nice 7 year buffer in G/F to survive a downturn while leaving the vast majority of assets in C/S/I for growth. I'll likely camp this for a while.

 

[Boghie]

Because...

• G: 60% - I wish I had another option
• F: 10% - Whatever
• C: 10% - Whatever
• S: 10% - Whatever
• I: 10% - Whatever

Now, this feels like late 2007, but for much different reasons.

Don't want to be in.

 

[Boghie]

Glad I did not 'Full Monty' out to the G-Fund...

It's been a nice summer market.

 

[Boghie]

Camping the G-Fund. My retirement meal plan:

 

[nasa1974]

Camping the G-Fund. My retirement meal plan:

View attachment 70164

I know it's more expensive but Farmer's Dog tastes better.

 

[Boghie]

I know it's more expensive but Farmer's Dog tastes better.

My wife would kill me if she saw me chowing on Ruby's grubs

Happy wife, happy life - so, Alpo it is!!!

 

[Boghie]

Are we starting to see the New Normal being the same as the Old Normal, but different from the Emergency Normal...

Equities go down, bonds go up.
Bonds go down, equities go up.

Expiring minds need to know.

I think this is saying that bonds now have enough return to actually invest in. They are again a safe zone from equities. So, perhaps we are done with the never ending 2008 and COVID emergency stuff. Don't expect FED cuts, and if they do happen it will be on the margin...

 

[Boghie]

October is usually a lousy month to be in the market, but it is a good month to buy into the market.

I am thinking about a 15% buy-in next week with another 15% the following. Don't know exactly when, but that sounds about right. I don't want to be out of the market for November through May. Gotta be in to win. So, November will be something around 70% in the market - which is about right. That leaves me with 5 - 7 years of blissful retirement spending in G/F.

 

[TommyIV]

October is usually a lousy month to be in the market, but it is a good month to buy into the market.

I am thinking about a 15% buy-in next week with another 15% the following. Don't know exactly when, but that sounds about right. I don't want to be out of the market for November through May. Gotta be in to win. So, November will be something around 70% in the market - which is about right. That leaves me with 5 - 7 years of blissful retirement spending in G/F.

I am in the same camp. I almost did some buying today but the choppy morning action had me too hesitant. I am also suffering from greed, hoping the market gets cheaper at the cost of potentially missing out on the cheapest prices this market plans to offer.

 

[Boghie]

Hmmm...

If you are part of the DoD, then your (our) time has come. DOGE is in the house!!!

They thought they were chewing the fat in the earlier agencies, wait till they take a peek at the DoD.



If you fire up the DOGE.gov page and select the 'Savings' menu option you will see that the DoD now has a +4 - meaning that they have moved four steps up in agency savings. Then, scroll down for the list of stuff being DOGE'd, sort by Date, and you will see the fat boiling off.

It's good to see those worthless 'Professional Support' contracts (I've seen IT auditors) awarded to accounting firms get the hammer. My experience with them has been less than ideal. They are contracted out by ignit nodders to perform less than useless audits. Complete waste of time. The money value saved will, in reality, be dwarfed by the savings accrued by not wasting time and effort with them. GLHF.

I bet DOGE will match their current numbers with just the DoD.

And, nothing proves the existence of Deep State like the fact that DOGE is still turning up contracts supporting USAID. Yowser.

 

[Boghie]

Nobody cares about the gubmint drawdown. Perhaps folks are wondering why staffing increased by 30% over the past four years. Maybe folks are thinking that borrowing for everyday expenses is kinda sus. Whatever. Moving to a higher risk/reward and more standard allocation:

• G: 45% - Still a sorta nice return
• F: 10% - Whatever
• C: 15% - Will probably increase this to 20% next week
• S: 15% - Will probably increase this to 20% next week
• I: 15% - Someone always told me that past returns guarantee future returns, or something like that

CAGR: 6.95%
Risk: 7.12%
Max Year: 19.44%
Worst Year: -13.64%
Max Drawdown: -22.98%

Approximately 30% of my current holdings will keep me off the streets and living rather ok for seven years. Thus, my allocation will now always have at least 30% in G/F. So, this is a middling allocation. Kinda a normal to conservative allocation. One has to remember that October can be bad so why participate in a big way.