Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Man, if I was a Young Pup I'd be moving 'all in'. There is a lot of frightened dumb money moving. Tasty

Settled tariffs for all our major trading partners excepting Canada and kinda Mexico. Mexico is bending the knee, Canada is calling so often we don't bother answering the phone.

In the end, has anyone seen the crushing effect of tariffs? The FED estimates that tariffs were responsible for 0.08% of the 2.70% annualized inflation. So, without the bone crushing tariffs inflation would have been 2.62%. Dumping that stupid EV mandate will reduce inflation significantly more than that.

BTW, I am NOT a fan of tariffs. They are inflationary - but it is 'Simple Jack' thinking to believe it is a 1 to 1 bite to the consumer. All you have to do is offset the 15% increase (or likely less than that since it is likely that the exporter eats some of it) in costs with a 15% decrease in costs. Tariffs are also NOT applied anywhere except at point of entry. There are a LOT of things that go into pricing (likely the majority of the pricing) that are NOT tariffed.

 

[Boghie]

While everybody is terrified of the inflation report:



I wanna see what is happening to the Federal Gubmint's bottom line. The July 'Monthly Treasury Statement' has posted large deficit spending for as long as I have reviewed the MTS. Last year we ran over a $243 Billion deficit in July. Today, at 1400 EST the July report comes out.
United States Treasury 'Monthly Treasury Statement'

We shall see if we are spending my Social Security now or saving it for when I need it.

 

[Boghie]

For all the talk and yammering about spending cuts - it ain't happening:

FY2024
Revenue	330
Expenditures	574
Deficit	244

FY2025
Revenue	338
Expenditures	629
Deficit	291

All numbers are rounded. Why bother in millions (rounding error) when we be having a trillions problem!!!

Everybody thinks the Trumpster is a money miser capitalist pig only concerned about the bottom line. What he is is a real estate grinder used to playing with 'other peoples money'. I mean, he was not exactly cost conscious in his first term.

We are in trouble and the FED SHOULD NOT reduce interest rates just to allow more of the above. We are no longer 'going broke', we are there...

 

[Boghie]

I was in a panic all week - I lost 0.81% in the market value of my holdings



I could have traded out to G on Friday COB, and traded back into equities on Thursday COB and made some serious bank with today's move (if it holds, smart money incoming).

Or, I could have gone to G and missed today's move completely.

In the end, doesn't the following graphic actually appear more accurate:

 

[Boghie]

What is that process to start my retirement

 

[Boghie]

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered...

I'm not making much of a change, but a change it is:

• G: 20% - It makes a decent return for the safety it promises
• F: 10% - Whatever
• C: 30% - It still feelz stronk like bull
• S: 25% - It still feelz stronk like bull, what competes
• I: 15% - This is stronk like bull. With the EuroTrash off of Russian crack this will get better

We are talking a 7% allocation change to safety. Not much of not much. Basically, this provides a very nice 7 year buffer in G/F to survive a downturn while leaving the vast majority of assets in C/S/I for growth. I'll likely camp this for a while.