bmneveu's Account Talk

[bmneveu]

I stayed in. I need to just leave my money in stocks for the next 20 years and forget about it. This mess is too stressful!

 

[Rod]

I stayed in. I need to just leave my money in stocks for the next 20 years and forget about it. This mess is too stressful!

Yes, it can be. Or, you can just do what I did... buy-n-hold for 10 years while tripling your account value.

 

[oceanminded18]

I stayed in. I need to just leave my money in stocks for the next 20 years and forget about it. This mess is too stressful!

I'm starting to think the same thing....down now but I don't retire for another 20+ years. Right now I'm 100% S, if I decide to switch to a buy and hold I'll probably jump over to 80%C and 20%S for the long haul. We'll see we'll see.

 

[oceanminded18]

I'm starting to think the same thing....down now but I don't retire for another 20+ years. Right now I'm 100% S, if I decide to switch to a buy and hold I'll probably jump over to 80%C and 20%S for the long haul. We'll see we'll see.

The question is when to move from S to C...if I'm down already I'll lock in the losses but if I wait for myself to get back even or at a profit then I'm buying at a higher share price. Thoughts?

 

[bmneveu]

The question is when to move from S to C...if I'm down already I'll lock in the losses but if I wait for myself to get back even or at a profit then I'm buying at a higher share price. Thoughts?

Another way to look at it is that you will be selling S at a higher share price too.

Honestly I don't think about TSP fund share prices at all, ever. I think of how exposed/volatile I want to be. S is max exposure max volatility, C is max exposure medium volatility, F is for shorting stocks (in a roundabout way, not literally), and G is zero exposure, zero volatility. If you have 20+ years to go and expect small caps to outperform large caps over that time (as they have historically), then set it in S and forget it. Investing in C is a defensive move imo. There are use cases for it, like trading in a bear market or investing closer to retirement, but people in our shoes should be in S.

This is all just my opinion. Hope it helps!

 

[bmneveu]

I gotta say I am pleasantly surprised to see my stock account flat and my TSP account (expected) to be up big after how we were looking this morning.

 

[bmneveu]

I gotta say I am pleasantly surprised to see my stock account flat and my TSP account (expected) to be up big after how we were looking this morning.

2.09% for the S Fund! Woo!

 

[rangerray]

2.09% for the S Fund! Woo!

Congratulations!!!

 

[oceanminded18]

Another way to look at it is that you will be selling S at a higher share price too.

Honestly I don't think about TSP fund share prices at all, ever. I think of how exposed/volatile I want to be. S is max exposure max volatility, C is max exposure medium volatility, F is for shorting stocks (in a roundabout way, not literally), and G is zero exposure, zero volatility. If you have 20+ years to go and expect small caps to outperform large caps over that time (as they have historically), then set it in S and forget it. Investing in C is a defensive move imo. There are use cases for it, like trading in a bear market or investing closer to retirement, but people in our shoes should be in S.

This is all just my opinion. Hope it helps!

This is helpful, thank for responding! Your perspective on holding S vs C long term is quite interesting and something up until COVID I hadn't really put much thought into...truth is, until COVID I was in an L-fund and didn't pay much attention to the TSP....now I'm learning and paying a lot more attention to it! I just looked on the TSP website and interestingly enough, it looks like the C fund has outperformed the S over the 1, 3, 5, 10 year intervals...no one knows what'll happen over the next 10-20 but either way I won't be in the L fund anymore!

 

[nasa1974]

2.09% for the S Fund! Woo!

I'm with you. Surprised how the "S" fund finished yesterday. Slowly making up for that 10% loss last week.

 

[nasa1974]

This is helpful, thank for responding! Your perspective on holding S vs C long term is quite interesting and something up until COVID I hadn't really put much thought into...truth is, until COVID I was in an L-fund and didn't pay much attention to the TSP....now I'm learning and paying a lot more attention to it! I just looked on the TSP website and interestingly enough, it looks like the C fund has outperformed the S over the 1, 3, 5, 10 year intervals...no one knows what'll happen over the next 10-20 but either way I won't be in the L fund anymore!

I haven't added the 2019 year end numbers to my excel sheet yet, but from 2001 (when the "S" fund was added to our TSP accounts) to 2018 the "S" fund has out performed the "C" fund 174.33% to 131.70%. However, if you had stayed 100% invested in the "C" fund since 1988 you would have earned 355.03%.

 

[Rod]

However, if you had stayed 100% invested in the "C" fund since 1988 you would have earned 355.03%.

That's a sucky return for 32 years... compared with what you could have done outside of the TSP.

 

[bmneveu]

That's a sucky return for 32 years... compared with what you could have done outside of the TSP.

11% per year while being shielded from the risk of small cap volatility is pretty dang good. Most investors take that in a heartbeat.

 

[Rod]

11% per year while being shielded from the risk of small cap volatility is pretty dang good. Most investors take that in a heartbeat.

Yeah... I know the feeling. My average annual return was 14.18% during my 10-year TSP buy-n-hold of 60 (C) 40 (S). I was quite happy with that.

 

[Cactus]

11% per year while being shielded from the risk of small cap volatility is pretty dang good. Most investors take that in a heartbeat.

355.03% over 32 years only amounts to an annualized return of 8.22%.

That's better than my record but not great. 8% a year is the new average. I think most people here are looking for more.

 

[weatherweenie]

8.22% annualized over 32 years is a spectacular result.

355.03% over 32 years only amounts to an annualized return of 8.22%.

That's better than my record but not great. 8% a year is the new average. I think most people here are looking for more.

 

[tsptalk]

However, if you had stayed 100% invested in the "C" fund since 1988 you would have earned 355.03%.

I think 355% may be since the share prices were created in June 2003. All the funds stated with a $10 price back then and now the C fund is 46.11.

The S&P 500 is actually up 1378% since Jan 1988. It closed on Dec 31, 1987 at 211.78 and yesterday it closed at 3131.

 

[rangerray]

I'd take 8% a year, guaranteed with no worries if it was offered.

 

[oceanminded18]

I haven't added the 2019 year end numbers to my excel sheet yet, but from 2001 (when the "S" fund was added to our TSP accounts) to 2018 the "S" fund has out performed the "C" fund 174.33% to 131.70%. However, if you had stayed 100% invested in the "C" fund since 1988 you would have earned 355.03%.

Thanks, that's very useful to know!

 

[bmneveu]

The S Fund is right around the flat line while the R2K is down more than half a percent. Thank you mid caps?