bmneveu's Account Talk

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Couple of things I've been thinking about if the 1-year mortgage/eviction freeze goes through:

1. Are we going to have another housing crisis a year from now when we come off that freeze?
2. Selfishly (and hypothetically), would it be more financially beneficial to me to not pay my mortgage for a year, or keep paying? Assume I maintain my current salary, 0% inflation, and that I am 2 years into this mortgage and plan to PCS 2 years from now with intentions to either sell or rent, depending on market value at that time.
 
I have a cousin who opted to not pay his mortgage during the housing crisis bust, he was fighting in court for the next decade to get the loan adjusted to the value of the house. Unless you got deep pockets for an attorney, I don't recommend it. Ultimately he won, but it was hard fought with many seemingly arbitrary rulings, mostly not in his favor.
 
Whipsaw said:
I have a cousin who opted to not pay his mortgage during the housing crisis bust, he was fighting in court for the next decade to get the loan adjusted to the value of the house. Unless you got deep pockets for an attorney, I don't recommend it. Ultimately he won, but it was hard fought with many seemingly arbitrary rulings, mostly not in his favor.
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This is a hypothetical scenario where the federal government freezes mortgages for a year due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. So assuming no legal issues.
 
Oh, and by the way, if we had a Congress that could be counted on to do the work of the people and keep their own power plays out of the equation, we might stand a chance of catching a break with some of these ridiculous, noon cut-off, day-before crap shoots they call IFT’s.


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bmneveu said:
Anyone else out there staring at today's market wishing you had done a one-day IFT in and out? Holy moly.
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Nah. I've been expecting huge rallies while waiting for the bottom to form. So, I don't let it bother me. Whoever did IFT was simply playing the odds. Those odds being in favor of a Turnaround Tuesday. None of us could have foreseen today's action. If there is a strong follow-through tomorrow morning, some might be tempted to make an IFT. They had better be careful though, because they could get caught up in some massive selling on Thursday.
 
Trying to think of stocks that have been hit hardest by the pandemic that should rebound well afterwards... cruise lines, airlines, consumer discretionary, amusement parks... what else?
 
Trying to find the BOTTOM isn't as easy as it sounds. It has screwed me on many occasions, usually the first tip up is huge and we have to IFT after the close that day, that BIG BOUNCE can turn around the next day and the hard part is deciding what to do. Hang in there and take the loss or jump back into the "G" Fund or it could continue to the upside, then your screwed and stuck with the loss, or visa versa.Zombie.gifBeartrap.jpg
 
bmneveu said:
Auto industry too, right?
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Been hearing rumors of many local car dealerships filing bankruptcy. Car sales virtually nonexistent. Large inventories of unsold vehicles on the lots. Employees being furloughed. Not sure this is a good pick. I'm hoping my Ford stock will at least recover to where it was prior to the coronavirus outbreak. JMHO
 
Scout333 said:
Been hearing rumors of many local car dealerships filing bankruptcy. Car sales virtually nonexistent. Large inventories of unsold vehicles on the lots. Employees being furloughed. Not sure this is a good pick. I'm hoping my Ford stock will at least recover to where it was prior to the coronavirus outbreak. JMHO
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Yes that is exactly what I'm looking for. Industries that are completely beat up right now, that should come roaring back when we get out of this thing.
 
nnuut said:
Trying to find the BOTTOM isn't as easy as it sounds. It has screwed me on many occasions, usually the first tip up is huge and we have to IFT after the close that day, that BIG BOUNCE can turn around the next day and the hard part is deciding what to do. Hang in there and take the loss or jump back into the "G" Fund or it could continue to the upside, then your screwed and stuck with the loss, or visa versa.
Click to expand...

Not trying to find the bottom, just getting a list together of stocks that have fallen the most since this event started that also have a good chance of recovering well when we get out of it. Some of these companies need to 2x or even 3x to get back to where they were 2 months ago. I don't care if I miss the bottom by 10% if I'm going to get +150% from it over the next year.
 
Scout333 said:
Been hearing rumors of many local car dealerships filing bankruptcy. Car sales virtually nonexistent. Large inventories of unsold vehicles on the lots. Employees being furloughed. Not sure this is a good pick. I'm hoping my Ford stock will at least recover to where it was prior to the coronavirus outbreak. JMHO
Click to expand...

I've been saving to pay cash for a new (or "gently used" truck). This virus just might be my blessing in disguise in that regard.
 
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