bmneveu's Account Talk

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Whipsaw said:
Still thinking DCB, or follow through tomorrow?
Click to expand...

Yes, still think dead cat bounce, and possibly end the day negative. Might only be an intraday DCB. We are seeing the morning gains sell off as the day goes on. Nothing positive regarding COVID-19 has come out since we started the selloff, so I don't see any reason for gains. I don't expect many big green days until we right that ship. The timing of that will be interesting as Bernie picks up steam and we get into the primaries later in the year.
 
Futures down another 1.5% so far. I’m trying to be patient, but these fund prices are getting so cheap. How do I not just put a little in?


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It is tempting! I always have to remind myself we were at these same levels only 4 1/2 months ago. 2019 was an abnormally good year with gains of over 30% so I think a correction is warranted.

I think we will be in the cycle for a while. The supply chain is going to be severely disrupted. So many things to watch with yield curve inversions and the possibility of the US joining Europe with negative interest rates!
 
bmneveu said:
Futures down another 1.5% so far. I’m trying to be patient, but these fund prices are getting so cheap. How do I not just put a little in?


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Click to expand...

Depends upon your age, risk tolerance, etc. Nothing wrong with putting "a little" in. Even if we get a few days in a row of relief rallies, it'll pull back again as a result of these fluid COVID-19 headlines. No risk, no reward. But do understand, as you lock in these bargain share prices, you may very well ride them down even further because no one can call a bottom in this environment. But, at least you would have bought in cheap... although they may go even cheaper.
 
The VIX is up to 48, a number we haven't seen since the September/October 2011 selloff. It got into the 60 range during the 2008 financial crisis.
 
The bulls are showing some signs of life... but can they do it in the afternoon when it really counts? We haven't seen that yet this week.
 
bmneveu said:
The bulls are showing some signs of life... but can they do it in the afternoon when it really counts? We haven't seen that yet this week.
Click to expand...

The Bulls are trying and if we can keep losses below 1% that would be a victory, just don't see it happening. 2 1/2 hours to the closing bell and we are close to a negative 2%. I just hope we don't have a panic sell off late. Everyone turn off the news.
 
Looks like a good chunk of the top 25 accounts on the AT moved into stocks. They were largely in the F fund earlier in the week. Take that for what it's worth. I'm trying to stay out until COVID-19 is under control. Hopefully that is not much longer!
 
bmneveu said:
Looks like a good chunk of the top 25 accounts on the AT moved into stocks. They were largely in the F fund earlier in the week. Take that for what it's worth. I'm trying to stay out until COVID-19 is under control. Hopefully that is not much longer!
Click to expand...

I made the same observation. Hopefully it's a good sign.
 
We are gonna play this "huge up day, huge down day" game until the day I get in, then the bottom will fall out. So, watch out for that!
 
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