Re: Birchtree's account talk
Excerpts from TWSJ 4/27/07 by Mark Whitehouse. Ferdinand wouldn't dare speak this blasphemy.
"The U.S. economy started 2007 with its weakest growth in foyr years, as a housing slump continued to hobble expansion. But consumers spent freely and business investment picked up, suggesting the worst of the slowdown might be past and giving economists reason to predict faster growth in the months ahead. Residential investment, a proxy for the housing market, was the biggest drag on first-quarter growth, falling at an annualized rate of 17% and slashing one percentage point ogg GDP. The first-quarter growth rate was below economists' expectation, but deeper in the report many economists found reason to believe the economy has hit its low point - one reason the stock market shrugged off the disappointing news.
Among the more encouraging signs, the GDP report found consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of economic activity, grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the first quarter. That is down from a 4.2% rate in the prior quarter, but higher than the 3.2% rate for all of 2006. The rise in business investment - up 2.0% compared with a decline of 3.1% last quarter - was a surprise given recent reports that suggested businesses are taking a more cautious outlook and cutting back investments accordingly. Another positive sign: Businesses continued to slow the rate of inventory accumulation, which could foretell an increase in production down the line.
That view was bolstered by news that the dollar declined again Friday on foreign-exchange markets, a trend that should give U.S. exports an edge and thus help lift factory production. With the unwind in housing not looking to bottom out, and firms very cautious about investment, this whole thing rests on consumers. When the dollar's going down, it's the gift that keeps on giving.
One puzzling aspect of yesterday's report was exports, which declined 1.2% in the first three months of the year, compared with a rise of 10.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. Exports have been a driver of the U.S. economy in recent months, thanks to a weakened dollar and growth throughout Europe and Asia. Many economist viewed yesyerday's exports decline as a fluke, which will either be revised upward or bounce back next quarter. Compared with the first quarter of last year, exports were up 5.5%. The important thing is to have continued growth around the world. We've got a good thing going with exports, and we want to keep it going.
The strong global economy is one reason economists are wspecially upbeat about the prospects for corporate profits. U.S. companies in recent weeks have reported stronger-than-expected first quarter earnings, often because of growing overseas operations that made up for sluggishness at home."
The Mrs came home yesterday with three new Aigner bags all on sale she says - doing her part I guess. All I want is the sales tax receipts anyway. Ferdinand do you suspose ayla has made it into the black yet? She sure is missing some terrible reads. I need to make $20K this week if possible.
