Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've often stated that when you run in front of the train like I do - eventually risk will catch you and the train will roll over you. I've always found getting run over to be refreshing. February 27th was one of those instances. That day the oceanic dropped $58K and I was eventually down to the tune of $97K. So what did I do as a renegade contrarian - I bought the bottom rather heavily and am now reaping the gains. The oceanic is up $71K so far this month after making all the previous losses back. Getting run over can be invigorating. Even the tugboat account provided some nice pricing. From now on my buys will be above $16.00. You can't fight progress.
If we are able to take out the Feb'o7 high on the NYSE breadth MSCUM, the minimal objective of the pattern would be to challenge the 2004 high water mark at +1366.23. We are currently at +868, the next resistance will be at +1133.90. The ultimate 3 of 3 objective will be the June'03 highs at 1581.29. The NYA is at 9625.53 and will place a new all-time high today.
Will today be the simultaneous triple banger? Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Henry To: "The NYSE McClellan Summation Index (MCSUM) is one more up day away from taking out its late February highs. Insuch a scenario, this will be immensely bullish for the stock market over the next four to six months".
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdy, it looks like we are the only ones left in the pasture. I know, I know that just makes more room to hoof it up. Did you notice CSX is at historic highs? Contrary to what's been believed, risk aversaion is not always the guiding light of decision-making. Loss aversion is a surprisingly powerful emotion. So great, in fact, that it keeps people from accepting good bets. Our bullish mantra is capital appreciation and not preservation. Apparently we have another Dow Theory reconfirmation.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think with the Dow up 14 out of 15 fits the characteristic of an Elliott third wave. We are currently in a little fourth wave of a small third wave extension. Now watch the market sell me off in the last 15 minutes.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

We're having another pause to refresh on the internals. The market is so strong I wouldn't discount the possibility of an awesome meltup out of the blue, like 2/27 only in reverse. Corrections can take on one of three forms - by price (like 2/27), that would be a collapse, time would be a net sideways movement to work off excesses that came before (my preferred coice of pain) and time and price where the pattern would trade sidways and then purge lower to complete the correction (Tom's preferred choice for his fun). Not many left in the bull pasture these days. Actually Ferdy and I kind of like that - limited participation.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Barnes Indexat 57.60 is providing decent stock valuation - not to worry until it gets to 70.0.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Not to sound braggadacio but with this good pin action my oceanic account might come close to pulling down $30K today. The A/D line is 5 to 1. NYC loves a bull market in the Spring.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I never, never thought of you as a braggadacio.....!?:D I know you have a fine mind, and a good heart...:) Keep your ideas flowing, and have a good and peaceful weekend.

Birchtree said:
Not to sound braggadacio but with this good pin action my oceanic account might come close to pulling down $30K today. The A/D line is 5 to 1. NYC loves a bull market in the Spring.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The oceanic account has made $85K so far this month - and with only 6 more trading days left to maximize the gains. We could end up anywhere from $80K to $125K. And prescient Ferdinand says May will be even more lucrative. The generals are leading the rally from the early March price lows thus far. I knew this market was coiled and ready to release. The price patterns are starting to mimic a more parabolic move now.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As far as the current analysis, The Demand Power line is far above the Supply Pressure line, suggesting this rally has more upside. That doesn't mean there might be a minor decline here or there, but the rising trend that started in late March looks to have further to go....there is plenty of demand out there to sustain this rally".

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2007/0422.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Birchtree. I follow what you, 12%, Fundsurfer, Ebb, Griffin, Spaf, Tom, Merlin, and Thunder5 do daily. Your graphic is I can understand.. being an ex-economist. However, what's the pain threshold "you" for jumping to the G or F funds (i.e. a rising supply curve correlating with at declining demand curve) and bail out. Those Feb 27th's are painful for the retired...and while I had been a buy and hold for most of my active career, I can see that 12% and Ebb are doing well using a different set of strategies. Thanks.

FS
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

FogSailing,

Since I've been introduced to the Holy Grail I have a strong tendency to function in the distant future - my pain level is not constrained by the loss of a few dollars. I don't anticipate pulling back until 2010 when we'll have the nesting of the next 4 year cycle. I monitor the A/D line and the beauty of the A/D line is that it gives you plenty of warning of any impending change in larger trend. We've never had a bear market without the A/D line diverging first from price. Even if we top out here on the NYAD you have to figure it's going to be another 2 years before we see an actual price top if history is used to forecast such ideas. The trump card here is the idea of us moving closer and closer to the center point of an Elliott Wave Primary 3rd wave to the upside where breadth of market will tend to be quite buoyant in all respects during the unwinding process. If the A/D line is advancing, the broad market of stocks are in a bull market.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today with the Dow down 42.58 proved to be a day of stocks and not a stock market. I wish uncle dell was around so I could belittle the point that I made money today in farm machinery, industrials and metals. Enough to leave me with a positive portfolio gain - maybe around $8K for a quick estimate. I've noticed the tips of my fingers are starting to get yellow again - trust me, from past experience that is not an encouraging sign. I don't want no darn midas touch - not again.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tomorrow I'm heading back to the I fund. Thanks for your comments. I really appreciate gaining a better understanding on investment strategies, and your's are one of those voices that I enjoy reading.

FS
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sales of existing homes fell 8.4% to an annual rate of 6.12 million units from February's 6.68 million unit rate. This is the sharpest drop in 18 years. Keep those home prices dropping. This is exactly what Ferdinand and the Federal Reserve want to see before they begin to drop rates. Pain before the next rebound gain is the Fed's game.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
With the OSM growing, and Blue chip companies investing in said OSM, (Like Coke and Caterpillar) do you think the C-fund will reflect that relationship, and grow proportionally? Atleast until the cost of crude and inflation catches up...?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

By the way,
Here's a tip...I don't believe it's insider. I met the contractor who is building the Warehouses and outlet stores for Croc footwear. He says he can't believe how fast the company is growing and he's going gang buster's trying to open stores as fast as he can. CROX-Nasdaq.
I'm house poor here in San Diego, otherwise I would put my money where my mouth is...
 
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