Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nah, just stretching a little. I'd like to build a 15% position in I fund over the next several months by DCAing into it. No big hurry though.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You do realize that if everything stays relatively stable today that you will be buying in at the highest level the I fund has ever been at in recorded history, doncha?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I do realize the possibility of new high figures - that's why I'm DCAing. What's high today will most likely be only higher in the future. I'm in the I fund at $21.65, $22.04, $23.21, and I'll take $23.60 if not better. My next purchase will be around the $24.00. I'm still DCAing my contributions into the C fund. Hey, you encouraged me to get off my duff and so I have.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand, guess what? As of yesterday we have gotten all our $97K back from the correction. Sure glad I followed Spaf down the well to buy'em on the lows. When we close today the oceanic account will be at a higher peak and we still have more Dow points to go to get back to even. Even the tugboat is looking fine. That's the advantage of DCAing all those lower prices and accumulating even more shares. Now they are all working in tandem for the positive good of my balances. We had the luck of the draw to buy the C fund at $16.14, $15.40, $15.41, $15.79 and the next should be back over $16.00 - of course we could always do another retest before it's finally done.
Went in today and leveraged down with some loose change to buy GB (Greatbatch - railcars) after they took 4 points out of it. This intraday volatility is going to be great. The NYAD continues to make all-time highs. Be in to win.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT,
Toast to ya, big guy!........

.......

 

[USNAVYRETIRED]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree... I'm still new to all this, so forgive my ignorance. What does DCAing mean?

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree... I'm still new to all this, so forgive my ignorance. What does DCAing mean?

Bt, is on line, but must be chating with someone else!

Dollar-cost averaging: investing money in equal chunks on a regular basis, such as monthly or quaterly. A risk-reducing investment strategy.

 

[USNAVYRETIRED]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Spaf... Thanks! I'm learning, and hopefully the more I learn, the more I'll earn!!! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yesterday I mentioned that I leveraged down on GB when in actuality it was GBX (Greenbriar - railcars) and not Greatbatch - drilling. That's what happens from time to time when one owns so many, they tend to stray from attention. I got a very nice price and suspect 30 days from now will have gained its' initial loss back. It's good to see the NYAD breadth MCSUM pushing the +800 level which would penetrate its declining tops line. That's important for a bullish signal.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well Ferdinand that latest setup with a Barnum and Bailey employee didn't result in any kind of earnings contrition but we did collect an ignore so all was not lost in vain. Sometimes risk is only happenstance especially if the bunny basket is light/

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In reference to my post #1389 - the generals are leading the rally from the early March price lows thus far. Carl's Thrust Trend Model shows a PMO crossover and the PMM Percent Buy Index is a hair away from an all out buy. PMM is at 73 but must go thru 32 EMA at 74.88. We could easily do it Monday - this market is coiled and ready to release. Sentiment tools are rather useless or simply don't have credibility during Primary 3rd waves that can last for years. The ammunition on the bullish side right now is the 16 TRIN that was generated on February 27th. Think of it this way, we generated a 5 at the 2003 lows and some may know what happened after that - let me remind you that it was a 3,000 point run on the Dow with hardly a look back - I rode the wave sitting in the S fund. This time I'm prepared to ride the C fund along with my Ducati. IMHO we will break above the February highs with great volume and better than average breadth plurality starting on Monday. There will always be corrections and we know that they are characteristic under Elliott 3rd wave guidelines. The market is now stronger on the internals than at any time in the last three years - just Thursday the SPX volume MCSUM broke above its declining tops line - let the spoils and profits go to those of us who dare to be long. We are currently only 27 points below the all-time closing highs on the NYSE. You just gotta love the smell of superlative manure in the Springtime - grow that A/D line.
Remember, it's not people buying that makes prices go higher, it's the prices going higher that make people buy and that means you Techy.

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As always you are an entertaining and informative read.
And just deadly with a knife.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The price pattern is accelerating its angle of ascent. Potential melt ups are emotionally based; get me in at any price. During the epicenter breadth of market should explode and maintain high plurality the closer we get to the actual center point of three. As a refresher, Primary wave 3 had its starting point in 1982. This would then open the door for a Primary wave 4 in the decade of 2010-2020, then Primary 5 up after that. If we do make new highs on the MCSUM and start seeing renewed gap expansion to the upside May and June will then come into play as the time duration for this current advance. The next hurdle for the NY Composite weekly AD MCSUM will be the +1487 level high posted February, 2005. We could now be back to both the 9 month and 4 year cycles moving concurrently in the same direction and this should provide enough staying power to continue for several months. The 9 month appears to have bottomed on target March 14th. We did hit another DJUA high lasy Thursday and the DJUA often hits its high well before the final high of the market as a whole by about 3 months. This bull is ready to stampede. As long as the NYAD line continues to move higher and higher so will price and the longer it does the longer the advance will run. Looking at the angle of ascent longer term of the NYAD - the more acute the angle, the more powerful the trend of money flow is. There was still money coming into the market on Thursday before a long weekend - shows me strength for a Monday opening. We are at the most acute angle right now where the only real comparison was in the 2003 period when, again, both the 9 month and 4 year cycle were moving up concurrently. I'm in up to my eyebrows.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There has been some discussion about the non-existent capital expenditure spending by business that is supposed to take the place of consumer spending. While reading my WSJ I came across this: Capital spending by S&P 500 companies has risen sharply, up 20% in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the previous year. The government data represent a survey of everyone who's hung out a shingle to do business. But in the S&P 500 specifically, profits have been so strong the last few years that the companies have already become flush with cash and willing to spend it. I'm looking for the catalyst that will spark this market much, much higher. Snort.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That is good news. The last I heard on the subject was the lack of spending was becoming a concern. Sounds like the tide is turning.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"One of the reasons for the Feb. 27th "phantom" sell-off and subsequent scaring of the average (TSP) investor, I'm convinced, was to allow the big money firms to pick up stocks on the pull back".

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0409.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand, have you checked the water temperature lately? With the Lilly Pad getting crowded again, the water must be cold, cold. Did you notice we got another splitter on board - AZZ currently $50.48 +2.53 is going to give us a 2 for 1 split. I suspect the NYSE breadth MCSUM has penetrated its declining tops line and the NYAD and RA NYAD line are at new all-time highs once again. This bull is ready to run. But if we are forced to simply walk like last week, that's fine. We made $35K in a slow go market last week of only four days - but April is firming for a solid balance gain. Be in to win.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With exports accelerating and imports shrinking, trade this year may add to growth instead of subtracting from it for the first time in more than a decade. The housing slump that's dragging down demand in the U.S. is having little impact beyond the countryt's borders, while other economies are generating enough demand on their own to prop up growth elsewhere. Today Alcoa announced that the aluminum exports to China increased over 33%. GE releases earnings Friday - hopefully they will be blow out numbers.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

China is getting one heck of a appetite.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The price pattern structure of the NYA continues to climb at a 45 degree angle of ascent. What 2/27 did, if anything, is that it totally cleansed the system of any weak hands - the great majority are still looking for a retest.