Birchtree's Account Talk

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The author's theory was that nothing new ever happens in the markets and that everything is just a repeat of the past.

I always wonder about that kind of logic. Everything has a beginning, so at one time it was all new. At what point does newness disappear and repeating begin?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I always wonder about that kind of logic. Everything has a beginning, so at one time it was all new. At what point does newness disappear and repeating begin?
Yeah! Deep Fab, very Deep! What?:confused: :rolleyes:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well, I guess I should've clarified, Chem! According to science, energy has no beginning and no end. According to theology, God has no beginning and no end.
:)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Consider that the value of your portfolio at any given moment is irrelevant if you have a long-term perspective. The weekly A/D line has been moving up since it bottomed in March 2000. We just went through the nesting of the 9 month cycle and it is now in our favor along with the 4 year up cycle.
 
Attentio, Shoppers: Europe's Stores Are in Play

From TWSJ 3/8 by Jason Singer.

The future of the world's second largest retailer, Carrefour SA is in flux. Is the Paris-based supermarket chain, which is second only to WalMart Stores Inc. in global sales, in play? Carrefour has stores in 29 countries, but none in the U.S.

Taking retailers like Carrefour private can be attractive to private investors for several reasons. Private-equity firms can hire new managers, pay them lavishly, and direct them to make sweeping changes quickly - the kind of moves than can depress quarterly earnings at first but can become profitable later on. It can be difficult for public companies to make such moves.

Sainsbury's, the third largest supermarket operator in the U.K., after Tesco PLC and Asda, has been winning new customers after several years of sales declines by focusing on service and high-quality foods. Germany's Metro Group AG, Dutch retailer Royal Ahold NV, and Belgiums's Delhaize Group NV, have also been the subjects of takeover talk. All would have price tags of $10 billion and up.

Wal-Mart's British unit, Asda Group Ltd., may also review a bid for Sainsbury's, people familiar with the matter say. Real estate is at the center of Sainsbury's appeal to potential buyers. Carrefour owns much of the lanf under its more than 12,000 stores in 29 coiuntries. Private equity investors will push the companies to capitalize on the value of the real estate by selling properties and leasing them back to the companies, among other options. (My friends, that's how it works - get that profit).
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Some basic minutiae from the WSJ 3/10.

Since 2000, productivity growth had been running at historically high levels, peaking at a 4.1% rate in 2002 and marking 3.7% in 2003, which economists attributed to technological advances that make it easier for fewer employees to do more work. Last year, growth in nonfarm business productivity fell to 2.1%. On average, productivity was up 1.6% for 2006, the slowest growth rate in nine years.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYAD line has bounced off the 10% Trend. I think we are still moving closer and closer to the center point of an Elliott Wave Primary 3rd wave to the upside. Do not under any circustances, underestimate the current market place. The underlying tone is very good. The strength with the Utilities has been overwhelming. The NYAD might be back in new all time high terriority at any time. The volatility is available. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Even though I'm absorbing the punches happiness for me are warm DCAs. My DCAs have looked like this: $15.60, 15.84, 16.04, 16.14, 15.40, 15.41, certainly hope to pick up a few more treasured buys before $16.17 rolls around. We could easily have an L bottom and simply wear everyone thin - great to DCA. But frankly, I believe we go back up quicker than we came down.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Wow Birch. Thanks for the insight. The strategy to get DCA's for the last 6+ times at a price that is currently higher or just equal to the share price is very enlightening. Maybe there is something to this BaH thing. I do understand your need to instill confidence for your overseas minions and family. You can snort their accounts back up for them. It will just take time.
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

As James Brown used to say "I feel good".

The NYAD (Daily) Cumulative at 142003.00 is now above the previous March level and is approaching the Feb. 20th all time high. This is the second highest close. All we need is 410 advances over decliners on the NYSE close today to be above the 2/20 all time high. The A/D line is a long term gauge of money flow. We've never had a bear market without the A/D line diverging first. If the A/D line is advancing, the broad market of stocks are in a bull market. The NYAD line graph can be found at stockcharts.com. The great majority of NYSE stocks continue to remain in historic longer term uptrends.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now my little chickadees what about the Dow Theory sell signal - what will it look like in three years?
A Dow Theory sell signal is not triggered until three events ocur in succession.
A. The stock market must undergo a significant correction - something like Tom has anticipated - more than a few days and more than a few percentage points.
B. When the rebound rally is attempted following this correction, either the DJIA or the DJTA or both, must fail to rise above where they stood prior to the beginning of the correction in step A.
C. In the market's subsequent decline following this rally - assuming Tom is correct - both the DJIA and DJTA must drop below the lows they set in the initial correction.
I'm anticipating the possibility of the RA-AD line remaining above the 1959 former resistance line and not testing its 1% trend. And thereby prove itself of underlying internals strength.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Investors are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, and another one by end of the year, according to futures prices. Rate-cut expectations may grow stronger over the next few months if weakness in the sub-prime mortgage market grows, job creation continues to slow, and the manufacturing indexes show more persistent contraction".

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/fedfundscut.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,

Believe you where the one that mentioned a "V" correction instead of a "W".
I'm now a believer "OH Magnificent One" and it has cost me dearly.

:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Currently the Oceanic is hitting on all cylinders - All those coins I tossed down the well awhile back are now paying off. Gesus, I do like to buy the bottoms. Still got some loose change for more later on if necessary. I may have to buy all the way up into Dow 14,500 - that's the new price objective for year end. Snort to all that have earned their CIB the last 8 months.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."

-Jesse Livermore
_______________________

http://www.jesse-livermore.com/

Fascinating
 
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