Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand old buddy, do we buy tomorrow or just let'er run. Perhaps we should buy if she tanks again - so many wall flowers that need attention, but only so many available dollars. We can easily come back at a later date and chase a few of them flowers on the upside - we don't always have to buy when it's so darn difficult. I'd tell you what Jeff said but you'd be forced to provide even more superlative manure and we've spread enough around already - appears even ole Techy has got Trigger making ample deposits. We can say all we want because he and sweet ayla don't read us anymore. Not important because I write for dear Wanda anyway. Snort.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oh! Shut UP!
Joke!!!!!

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What is your assessment of the effect of this morning's quotes from Greenspan on this week?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So far I haven't read his statements and I don't really care what he says. He is just a citizen like Bill and Jimmy. When I checked my pain level this morning I am now down $97K in the oceanic - not my best bottom yet which surprises me considering the amount of buying I've done since the correction really started. I've completed 97 trades which should hurt me, oh please it feels so good, all the way down. Today, I'm going to ignore my overwhelming greed factor and sit back and let'er run. If we don't get a second shoe drop and complete a V rally I'll simply chase those flowers I have my eye on - they'll only get more expensive on the way up. Nothing wrong with chasing as long as one is prepared to pay the stiff price if it turns down again. Either way I'm accumulating income and that is my goal for the immediate future. I'll keep my focus projected onto the coming wave 3 epicenter. It'll be awesome.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdy,

Was it you that told me that when you are a buy and holder you never miss a move. You catch everything to the downside and never have to worry about missing anything to the upside, you are never left out of the action. No wonder we find it so exciting. Sugar started it...

Birchtree

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If I recall correctly, I think both the '97 and '98 bottoms from their corrections were of the big V type.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If I recall correctly, I think both the '97 and '98 bottoms from their corrections were of the big V type.

1998 looks like a "W" to me!
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=81982&postcount=1145

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have graphs but I'd have to dig for them - currently not that motivated though. I'm going to play both sides of the slopes no matter the direction. All I'm concerned about is that I have to be in to win - and I'm trying to set up for a $500K gain on the year.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm shooting for $700K myself.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now VB that is a pleasant surprise - I wish you the best. If you make the grade I'll be right behind you. You gotta keep your eye on Ocean - he doesn't post much but he is active.

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll settle for an additional 200K plus my contributions and matching. That would put me in reach of 1 mil next year.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are going to have to chip in and take up a small collection for the Technician. I'll be satisfied with a $125K gain on my TSP, it is the large account I'm pushing to set up for the $500K gain. That would put me close at least cat wisker close to $2M. I'm very optimistic on the year.

Today the NYSE had a 15.2 up to down volume plurality. The NY ratio adjusted AD line came within 800 raw net advances of dipping back below the former all-time RAAD line resistance, at least for now, that former resistance is now recognized as new support. We may indeed be slowly approaching the epicenter of Primary wave 3 with all three exchanges with over 90% up volume days before on the same day (NYSE 93%, AMEX 92%, and NASDAQ 94%) as we had today. Volatility creates opportunity.

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are going to have to chip in and take up a small collection for the Technician. I'll be satisfied with a $125K gain on my TSP, it is the large account I'm pushing to set up for the $500K gain. That would put me close at least cat wisker close to $2M. I'm very optimistic on the year.

Today the NYSE had a 15.2 up to down volume plurality. The NY ratio adjusted AD line came within 800 raw net advances of dipping back below the former all-time RAAD line resistance, at least for now, that former resistance is now recognized as new support. We may indeed be slowly approaching the epicenter of Primary wave 3 with all three exchanges with over 90% up volume days before on the same day (NYSE 93%, AMEX 92%, and NASDAQ 94%) as we had today. Volatility creates opportunity.

Techie is doing fine all by himself. I just have to keep telling myself to stay long!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ 2/27 by David Gaffen.
Has the stock market's rally gone too far? Joseph Keating, chief investment strategist at First American Asset Management in Birmingham, Ala., doesn't think so, noting the S&P 500's earnings gains have dwarfed its price gains in the past few years, suggesting the market could support the current level of stock prices and steady increases for months to come.

Stock-price growth tends to track increases or decreases in earnings growth, he says, resulting in a relatively stable price to earnings ratio over time. This gets out of whack at times. In the late 1990s, the stock market's exuberance outpaced earnings growth; it took a severe correction to bring prices back in line.

In the current bull market, prices and earnings matched each other step for step until the summer of 2004, Mr. Keating says - and then earnings kept growing, but prices lagged behind. Earnings have grown about 45% in the past three years, he says, compared with a 27% increase in the S&P 500.

What caused the divergence? Mr. Keating suggests the start of the Fed's campaign to raise interest rates that summer brewed uncertainty about earnings and limited gains in stock prices. But as a result of the disconnect, he sees "very little downside risk to the market - all though I think a 5% to 7% correction would be relatively healthy."

Back on the come back trail - yesterday was beneficial. Is a V going to give way to a U or an L bottom?

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, made a 40% bet yesterday in my short term trading account and it worked out very well. Flipped to cash today.

white

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYAD basically bounced off its 5% trend (39 day EMA) on Tuesday. See how far the NYAD is from the 10% trend (19 day EMA) and the distance between the 10% trend and the 5% trend. You should be concerned when you have a change in the trend of money flow and the only verifiable way that you will know that the trend has changed is not only when the NYAD moves down below both of these EMAs, but only when the 10% trend (19 day EMA) moves below the 5% trend (39day EMA) is when you will know that the trend has changed from up to down. The 19 day EMA is still above the 39 day EMA, so far. The bulls such as myself are very happy that the MCSUM readings were as high as they were before last Tuesday - or the price decline would have been a whole lot worse if the MCSUMs were either at the zero line or below it. During the final bottoming process - price goes lower, sentiment becomes more dire, but the internals diverge. The 9 month low is nesting. This rally has only begun. Snort.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

...During the final bottoming process - price goes lower, sentiment becomes more dire, but the internals diverge. The 9 month low is nesting. This rally has only begun. Snort.

I gather you are saying that you expect another drop and then a steep rally upward?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYAD line is holding and providing internal divergence. The NYSE breadth MCO has been fully reset, and a full reset of this kind is fully consistent to the bottoming process of the 9 month cycle. The NYSE breadth MCO took out last summers low in the process of moving down. That could be problematic, we'll see. The structure of the A/D line is still positive and is highly bullish. I may be forced to do some buying today - chase them skirted wall flowers.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tossing a few more coins into the fountain - Ferdinand don't be reaching in there, that is not respectful or honest. Bought today: GW, SPN, GB, UDRL, TRA. Henry says; " The key to outperformance in today's environment is not to only anticipate what retail investors will do next, but what hedge funds will be doing next as well". A level of 1406 on the SPX is a move up to the .382 retracement level of last weeks price decline. The approximate .382 retracement on the COMPQ comes in at around the 2410 area.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"In the present case, there was no evidence of a prolonged deterioration of investor psychology. Past experience shows that 90% Downside Days occurring near the market highs with no warning signs of a major top, are typically part of short term corrections, and thus eventually provide an opportunity to buy stocks with strong Power Rating patterns at the time of the next short term buy-signal, for a resumption of the primary market advance". The chances we take.

http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htm 3/7 by Chris Puplava