Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanx for the kind words. But actually I haven't lost any money yet, only value. I'm used to this kind of treatment from the markets and usually perform better when I'm at the bottom of the well. I have done some selective selling to generate funds to do more buying. The sales, unfortunately, have all been too profitable and I'll pay the tax consequences later. We all have our own individual strategies and good luck with yours.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I know I'm on thin ice here as a newcomer, a guest in your thread and I surely don't mean to pick a fight or speak with disrespect, but I can't resist commenting any longer and voice an objection. As some of us are feeling significant pain, and recalling your great confidence of recent weeks that the market would continue up until April or later, and your derision of those more risk averse in recent weeks, to hear you talk of personal wealth enabling you to absorb these sudden losses is simply grating, particularly at this moment. Your opinions and advice would be held in higher regard if that were not the backdrop.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Throwing more money down the rabbit hole today and keeping some powder dry for next week. I sold my RYI at its' 52 week high and bought: MLI, NI, RI, SGP, SSD, SE, SR, SXI, SXC, TRA. Should be seeing some dividend reinvestment which will help soften the thumps. Now I realize that everytime I put money back into the market I hurt myself - but that's my sacrifice and I'm willing and capable to assume the consequences. Ride that Ducati.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

WarrenIm,

Thanks for your comments and my retort is that I am as I is. I have mentioned on numerous times the potential of a blindside stroke and that I was prepared for such a delivery. I'm still very bullish to the point where I'm doing much selective buying, remember we have a long year ahead. This is what makes a market and you have to be always prepared with some kind of a strategy. Yes, my wealth is helping me sustain the pain levels and you'll just have to make your money the same way I did - learn and invest. I can empathize with your feelings, but I've been down this road many times and am letting others see how one individual handles his situations. If I'm correct no matter how long it takes to recover, I'll be that much further to the good. I'm basically a renegade contrarian and I do what I do because of what I do. You are fortunate to have the view - now whether or not it is helpful only you know. I would suggest you go back and read my comments from 2005 and 2006 and see if I'm doing anything different. I've been a full blown out bull since the triple bottoms in 2002-2003, and we got a long way to go yet. Step back and see the forest and the great mountain range we are sitting atop. Good you chanced talking to me. Snort.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Very organized with your recent purchases Birch. I guess Monday you will tell us of your T's, U's, V's and W's you added and then Tuesday finish your very alphabetical list of upgrades.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You are very observant - do you work in a healthcare profession?

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I sold my RYI at its' 52 week high and bought: MLI, NI, RI, SGP, SSD, SE, SR, SXI, SXC, TRA.

Hey Birchy, please allow me to spice up your rather dry laundry list with some prose and alliteration....

Alas, on this very morn,
With not so much a cry but a quiet sigh,
I did cut ties and let fly,
My most shrewd and excellent buy ... of RYI.
For I did spy, with my old yet unjaundiced eye,
That a lofty place it had for itself plied,
Smack on it's 52 week, and well-nigh an all time high.

So..... With monies marvelously mopped up maybe with a modicum of melancholy I mined more MLI, nipped new NI, stole some SGP, stealthily swiped sacks of SSD, secreted some SE, sternly with sanguine steeliness scooped some SR, skippingly scrounged some SXI, snoodily snatched some SXC, and triumphantly triangulated a trestle of tested tactics and took TRA. -cheers

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanx for the prose. Reading that I imagined the Sugarbabe walking down the hallway - it was poetry in motion. Don't cry for me Argentina, but RYI will probably run up another five points before next week is ended. I decided to dump my GT this week and true to history it has already run up an extra two points. Ah, you can't be a winner every day. I've been calling for blood in the streets but didn't anticipate it would be mine - it will eventually be bear blood. I'm now relying upon my newly discovered holy grail: The wealthier you are, the more you will be able to withstand short-term shocks in the equity markets and focus on making long-term investments. I've been buying wall flowers all week - realizing the bullish trend is still much intact - but I must be a lover of pain. Yes I love the rewards pain produces.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And now a little light entertainment from my friends at Merrill by Mary Ann Bartels, 3/2/07.

A correction apperas to have begun, but the markets underlying technical condition points to further advances. The equity market's recent sharp decline produced "fear-level" readings in a number of indicators, including TRIN, the VIX, and the CBOE put/call measure. As we see it, the setback resembles the carry-trade unwinding/hedge fund de-leveraging process that occurred last Spring.
In our judgement, the downdraft marks the beginning of the 8-10% correction that we have been expecting for some time. We expect to see further follow through to the downside, especially if the yen continues to strengthen and the carry trade unwinds further. Moreover, it's important to note that any lows that are established initially will need to be tested. That said, the longer-term technical and liquidity indicators that we use to evaluate the stock market are positive. That suggests that the market's primary trend is up. Here are some of the reasons why we raised our targets. We have a high level of conviction that the stock market's primary trend is positive. As a result, we have introduced a two to three year target of 2000 to 2100 for the S&P 500. (I'll be toast for sure). On a shorter-range basis, we now think that the major averages have upside potential of about 15 to 17% from their current levels. We have raised our 10 to 12 month target levels accordingly. S&P 500 to 1670-1700, DJIA at 14,500-14,800.
Looking at specific industry groups, we expect the airfreight, agricutural and chemical, machinery, metals, and road and rail transportation areas to outperform in the months ahead.
1. Simultaneous record highs by the DJIA, DJTA, and DJUA suggest that a new leg of the bull market is forming. The Wilshire 5000 also closed at a record high, confirming the primary positive trend.
2. The new highs were confirmed by a record in the advance/decline line, and buying power vs. selling pressure also confirmed that investors are accumulating or purchasing stock. In addition, volume confirmed the record highs.
3. Liquidity is bullish. Our work shows that hedge funds are still a likely source of positive liquidity. Another plus: mutual fund inflows recently went strongly positive after months of outflows.
4. Leadership came back. Small-cap stocks showed strength, and the sectors that earlier were leaders in this cycle - Materials, Industrials, and Energy - were rallying again.
Risks: Fallout from the sub-prime lending market spreads to the equity market, inflation expectations increase again as commodities, particularly gold, advance, greater than expected strength in the yen, more extensive carry-trade unwinding.

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for the info. I always enjoy your posts and writing style-even though I may not always agree with what you write. Merrill is in the the business of selling stock though-so aren't they a ' tad' more bullish then it should be? And a possible 8 to 10% correction-my-that is a lot of blood.

Yes, yes I know. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

All righty then how about an update on the big bleeder. So far in March I am $27K down in value on the oceanic and down in value of $75K for the week. The tugboat has reduced its value by $26K so Im bleeding at a steady flow. If I recall back in 2006 I dropped down to the tune of $34K and of course it's all only relative. It's a relief that I caught the rally of the last nine months so I'm still in good shape. The tugboat will now add more shares as we proceed from here - hope we take our time, but I may not be that fortunate. I feel there may be an unsuspecting meltup buy panic kick in fairly shortly. I'm prepared to wait out further downside noise and do more selective buying and dividend reinvestments - I'm Harry Dent bullish for the future - this is only a slight detour on the road to prosperity. The NYSE breadth MCSUM remains above the +690 level so this should help in curbing any follow through price moves to the downside from this juncture. The 9 month cycle price low is destined to nest 3/12 and usually the internals weaken several weeks prior to that date. For a bear market to happen the broad market must lead the way lower and currently price is leading breadth lower. The likelihood of a continued decline from here is very low, but then again, I believed this to be the case back in May of 2006 as the market continued to dig lower as many continued to bet on a bounce. I hope most of the reading on the net this weekend is overwhelmingly bearish.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tempest,

Merrill has always been associated with being overly cautious - they would rather sell you a financial plan. I seldom side with their position, but this time they are spot on.

This one is cool. "One big positive that the market has going for it is the major support that can be seen on the next chart. The recent rally pushed the S&P 500 above the top of its long-term rising trend channel. Where the top of the channel used to be resistance, it is now support, and the remainder of the correction could be played out above the support line".

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/0302.html

With all the liquidity still in the markets right now - if we make new price highs and the NYAD line diverges - we got mucho trouble.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Our greatest concern is that 3 previous cycles that ran over 200 weeks...all ended with a bang and were down 29.93% on average. Currently it has run 228 weeks....its gross percentage change of 90.15%...." I do believe this time is different because we are in back to back secular mega bull trends.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/griess/2007/0302.html

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks - I bookmarked that website last week when mentioned another article (some Martin Goldberg analysis?). And I did read that yesterday.'Something' is going to happen.

 

[Fivetears]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This sure sounds like a pretty decent market forecast. I sure hope to see it play out. Monday would be a nice starting point.

... As a result, we have introduced a two to three year target of 2000 to 2100 for the S&P 500. (I'll be toast for sure). On a shorter-range basis, we now think that the major averages have upside potential of about 15 to 17% from their current levels. We have raised our 10 to 12 month target levels accordingly. S&P 500 to 1670-1700, DJIA at 14,500-14,800.
Looking at specific industry groups, we expect the airfreight, agricutural and chemical, machinery, metals, and road and rail transportation areas to outperform in the months ahead.
1. Simultaneous record highs by the DJIA, DJTA, and DJUA suggest that a new leg of the bull market is forming. The Wilshire 5000 also closed at a record high, confirming the primary positive trend.
2. The new highs were confirmed by a record in the advance/decline line, and buying power vs. selling pressure also confirmed that investors are accumulating or purchasing stock. In addition, volume confirmed the record highs.
3. Liquidity is bullish. Our work shows that hedge funds are still a likely source of positive liquidity. Another plus: mutual fund inflows recently went strongly positive after months of outflows.
4. Leadership came back. Small-cap stocks showed strength, and the sectors that earlier were leaders in this cycle - Materials, Industrials, and Energy - were rallying again.
Risks: Fallout from the sub-prime lending market spreads to the equity market, inflation expectations increase again as commodities, particularly gold, advance, greater than expected strength in the yen, more extensive carry-trade unwinding.
.

 

[SkiUtah]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,

What has this last week done to the elliot wave theory?

Thanks.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Danke,

No significant damage as of yet. When ever the AD line MCSUM was greater than +500 (now +690) and there was a 5% decline on the SPX, the performance of the SPX going forward was impressive, giving credence to the notion an AD MCSUM over +500 is a formidable hurdle for the bears to drive prices down significantly under such conditions.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think I'll drop a few more coins down the well later today. The Barnes Index is now at 51.20 - down 12.80 for the week. The Barnes Index is now at its lowest level since late 9/06. Cool huh?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Three Coins in the Fountain". Just went in and bought a few more wall flowers: TKR, UGI, VHI, WR, PVR, APU, LTD, HHS, HBP. and peeled off a little BW to help pay for my indiscretions. Consensus seems to think we got a second shoe to drop after the rebound - I'll take the opposite side of that trade because we're heading much higher without the look back.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The tugboat has now been punched to the tune of $32K and is very close to MY previous bottoms - so we'll be launching a rally soon - maybe not straight up, but that is fine. I really like these prices for the long term. Every new employee is getting a silver lining opportunity for these excellent prices - just don't camp out in the G fund and miss the potential. There is always a right time to buy and that is when it is the most difficult - going against the herd and short term trend. It is just as difficult to sell because emotions get in the way and say not yet - get a few more points. For me what I've been patiently waiting for is volatility. Volatility my friends creates opportunity.