Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Insider purchases surged during the recent selloff, another positive for the stock market. Insider buying is surging to the highest levels since the market bottom in June 2006. I'm letting my profits run for awhile before I peel off some to buy more wall flowers. The couple sales I've made recently have proven as usual to be a sacrifice - they've gone up 4 points each already.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

For some folks it's natural to always be on the come back trail. This week I managed to gain back $57K of my original $97K drop in value. The tugboat has managed a $20K rebound of my original $32K drop in value. I'm now at #114 on Rokids' talley and climbing out of the well. I'll be waiting on my DCA under $16.00 this week - got the last one at $15.40 and only missed the exact bottom by a trading day, which was $15.25. That's called rotten luck.

http://www.aiqsystems.com/obmsubscribers.htm Feb'07 and March'07.
An Exploration of the Nature of Bull Market Tops.
Will AIQ's Unique Breadth Analyzer Identify Next Major Market Top?

"Bad things rarely happen with the MCSUM above zero because the A/D line typically tops well before the indices. The 3/24/00 top saw only 3.8% of SP 1500 stocks making new highs (SPX 500, SP 400, and SP 600) that day, while nearly 60% of stocks had already corrected at least 20% from their highs. In contrasy, as of 2/20/07, stocks hitting new highs was 17% and still trending higher, while only 8% had corrected at least 20% from their highs."
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ 3/9 by Mike Spector.

"Early this year, before the U.S. government slashed its once-strong estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth, many investors thought the robust economy would prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates until year's end, if then. Today, with the economy appearing to be growing more like 2% than 3% annually, bond yields and interest-rate futures suggest many investors think the Fed will cut rates by summer to give the economy a boost.

Lower interest rates support stronger economic growth. They also support home sales because they make it cheaper to invest in land and to take out a mortgage. And cheap money makes it easier for people to borrow money and invest in financial markets. A big source of support for the stock market over the past four years, and for a wide variety of riskier investments, has been the huge amount of cash sloshing around, looking for a place to go. Some of the easy money that went elsewhere may be coming back to the U.S. The availability of cheap money has made investors a lot more comfortable about taking risk".

As long as the Fed is expected to cut rates - rather than raise them, as it was doing in 2000, when the last bear market began - the cheap money can continue supporting stocks. Cheap money would help offset some of the worries these days about slowing economic growth, a credit crunch, a weak housing market and invesytor exposure to risky assets.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Looks like I picked the right day to jump back in to the "C" Even if it is only for a day:nuts: ....
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

You're running the risk of missing the "Big Valley". We could really cook it this last hour today. Inflation numbers are in line for this week - the Fed is watching and will intervene to prevent the approaching housing crisis. They were instrumental in initiating the downturn and now will signal that they will step in to save the subprimer.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I agree, I definitely don't want to miss the "BIG Valley", however I believe we are only seeing the beginning of the subprime debacle. I think the market can withstand a slow surge of bad news coming from subprime land but when the media gets ahold of that news anything can happen!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I decided to raise a little insurance cash this afternoon as a hedge. Sold my position in OSG and RAI. Now I have money that can be redistributed.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm tempted to do some more buying - but. I'm going to wait a few days and not be a hero, prudence may after all be the better part of valor. We'll see. I do think we'll start placing bottoms above bottoms. This is not a trend change IMHO.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Blew out the Mrs small cap fund and went back into the international fund and we are now fully loaded. Takes effect at 1600 hours today.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand, looks like even the big money cluckers are DCAing on the way down out of funds back to the Lilly Pad. Have you noticed who is wearing his "Chicken Little" suit again, he must of kept a spare around. It definitely feels like we are in bottom territory - the FTSE has penetrated the 200 SMA, how great is that. This simple buy and holder has his focus on the future and the fundamentals are quite fine indeed - will the Fed step in early and save the subprimer - I think the surprise will be that they lower rates real soon.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Ferdinand, looks like even the big money cluckers are DCAing on the way down out of funds back to the Lilly Pad. Have you noticed who is wearing his "Chicken Little" suit again, he must of kept a spare around. It definitely feels like we are in bottom territory - the FTSE has penetrated the 200 SMA, how great is that. This simple buy and holder has his focus on the future and the fundamentals are quite fine indeed - will the Fed step in early and save the subprimer - I think the surprise will be that they lower rates real soon.
Click to expand...

You referring to me Birchy??? Hmm, if you are, I'm up thar in the top decil, I'm the one dressed in the "Smart Warlock Suit" ......and may I ask,where are u??? Sitting on the Lilly "C" pad...wishing that the DCA would go to work sooner instead of later......

I told ya, I sold that suit off ......thar ain't another one like it!!!

Funny thing, I sort of DCA too.....I just use more of my monies to do it than you.....and I don't keep any in when I know its time to get out....don't you know when......??
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Techy,

I was at #114 - probably dropped from there yesterday. I catch my C fund DCA this week at a wonderful price probably under $15.00 - isn't that great? You know we've been through this before and so much fun we have in the process. Good that you are in CP - I still prefer CA with incremental losses along the trail. We'll meet again at the #50 level I'm sure.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The HSNSI currently stands at 21.6%, down from 62.4% on Feb 26, the day before the DJIA dropped 416 points. (Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index). This is bullish from a contrarian standpoint. The average stock market timing newsletter has retreated to cash in a big way".

http://www.marketwatch.com
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll tell you that if I were a gunslinger I would have spent my cookies yesterday when the market was down 136 points - but the Mrs said save your sacrificial cash for our trip and my pearls. So the cash sits in reserve - I'll have to make any future buying more strategically planned. But if we do get another nasty surprise the greed factor will undoubtedly burn a hole in my pocket and I'll take the reserve. I long for more wall flowers because I know they will grow into beauties with the right application of superlative manure. Currently I'm in up to my eyebrows. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think I actually feel better about the market. After the first drop, there was way too much calmness everywhere. People weren't really afraid and most people seemed to have the market "figured out." Now it looks like people are more worried and/or disoriented. It would be the contrarian thing to do to just keep chugging along in the market.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
807
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
S&P 500 down for 5th straight day heading into Powell's speech
Replies
0
Views
110
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
465
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks bounce back on Turnaround Tuesday. Nvidia earnings next
Replies
0
Views
113
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
217
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top