Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I bought the insurance policy at $15.41 so we might be getting close. I basically see this as a one day wonder - with many puts piling on to get squeezed on the rebound. There is no reason for this blind side, it is what it is. Painful it will be, but with plenty of opportunity to buy cheaper. It's all in the game of watch out for the hedge hammer. If this is any indication of the volatility we can expect going forward I'm ready to pistol shoot my way to prosperity. Snort.

 

[budnipper1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

ANDY...
Give me another bullet.
​

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've selected out two positions for liquidation probably tomorrow with the intent to purchase multiple other wall flowers. I'm really glad this rout has occured even if it's painful - now we can concentrate on what is important. And that is a continuation of the trend forward. The Mrs is satisfied we left her international fund but I'm thinking perhaps moving back if we can get another $1.00 reduction in price. If this volatility is any indication of the future I'll be busy on the way to prosperity. The VIX rose during the market advance of 1996 to 1998. And my holy grail: The wealthier you are, the more you will be able to withstand short-term shocks in the equity markets and focus on making long term investments. And for you newbies, inorder to really learn anything in this game you have to take it on the chin from time to time. Today was prime example. I hope my loss on the oceanic was under $60K. About $19K on the tugboat.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If this is any indication of the volatility we can expect going forward I'm ready to pistol shoot my way to prosperity. Snort.

I've been begging for volatility. Finally, we got a taste of it. I hope we're entering a phase of some serious volatility.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another day that will live in infamy. The oceanic gave back $58K yesterday, that wipes out my February gain and is eating into my January profits. But this is tolerable because better times are on the horizon. There is a lesson here that I learned through trial and error - it's why I have 200 stocks in the portfolio. If I had all my money tied up in ten stocks this boy would be burnt toast right now. I'll take the gains slower to the upside and reduce the risk to the down side. I'm prepared for what ever the day brings - flexibility is the key word. Got my buy list ready in preparation to further build for the next three years. Let'er roll.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE TRIN yesterday was at 15.77 - this is the highest TRIN level since the March 2003 lows, highest in 28 years of data. How many times have we seen hard corrections since 2003 lows only to see new highs again - 5 times. Does keeping the majority from participating in the long term trend ring any bells? All we did on the NYAD was move back to the fastest EMA (10%) on the chart, no real damage done. That's the 19 day EMA. Just a sharp correction on a parabolic 3rd wave sequence.

 

[ChemEng]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another day that will live in infamy. The oceanic gave back $58K yesterday, that wipes out my February gain and is eating into my January profits. But this is tolerable because better times are on the horizon. There is a lesson here that I learned through trial and error - it's why I have 200 stocks in the portfolio. If I had all my money tied up in ten stocks this boy would be burnt toast right now. I'll take the gains slower to the upside and reduce the risk to the down side. I'm prepared for what ever the day brings - flexibility is the key word. Got my buy list ready in preparation to further build for the next three years. Let'er roll.

Why do you think a 200 stock portfolio is less risky than one with fewer?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's the number of shares in a stock that can make you rich or turn you into toast. A 10K shares will hurt you when the stock drops 5 points versus a 1K position that drops 5 points. It's $50K versus $5K.

Just liquidated the remaining position I had in GT and bought these: CBI, CEM, CF, CEN, CPC, CGC, CRI, BMY, BBG, AVA, AVX, ATO, AIT, ANN, AP, ALY, AA, AIN. And I'm keeping some loose change for the next great buying opportunity in case we get another retest blindside. I'm ready with my spill.

 

[ChemEng]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's the number of shares in a stock that can make you rich or turn you into toast. A 10K shares will hurt you when the stock drops 5 points versus a 1K position that drops 5 points. It's $50K versus $5K.

So you value risk in an asset by how much you have invested into it? Wouldnt that make your 98% C fund position extremely high risk?

But Ill bite again. How does having different stocks ensure that they dont drop at the same time? Im just curious how you arrived at this holy grail.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes, Ive been saying that I maintain a high risk position in being 98C. I could easily be at 30%, but there is no money in the position. But one can only do so much with an S&P 500 index. This volatility could give me a new lease on profit potential - it's not like I haven't waiting. Hey, if Techy can trade, perhaps there's a chance for me - he can be my role model and I'll let him blaze the trail to the top. I consider my self being leveraged holding a 98C position. A common sense person would be diversified.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oh, I forgot the holy grail. The grail is having accumulated enough of a wealth position to be able to sustain the pummelings that come along with regularity.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Throwing money away today. Just bought: AME, BEZ, BMS, BKH, CNP, CPX, CRK, CVG, CSX, DHT, FLE. I bought the FLE to make my escape. Got more spill to go if we stay down - this is all psychology and fear. I have no fear. Continue to run in front of the train. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Updating the oceanic - I made $12K yesterday which leaves me $10K in the hole for February and a gain of only $76K ytd. The tugboat is off $0.07 ytd. no reason to get melanchology yet. Got my DCA coming this week at an excellent price. No hippity hopping for this bull. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand have you noticed there is another lemming parade along with Trigger over to the Lilly Pad - just when the fun is really starting. They'll all miss the great move tomorrow. Who did Hillarys' face anyway? She is going to be on Power Lunch today doing her own rendition of Johnny Depp - it's my party and I'll cry if I want to, cry if I want to, you would cry too if you were her.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've noticed that with the XXX XXX on patrol today Joey Brown can't open his mouth. Life was better when hydroponics was taking up his available time.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes, I'm still throwing money away. Just bought: GE, GXP, HXL, JAH, KEX, KR, KOP, LUB, MAS, MOS. The Mrs. is going to hold out for lower pricing in the international funds - I see folks looking for the I fund bottom, but it may be another $0.75 down from todays close IMHO.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How much am I willing to give back before I cut and run - good question because I seldom cut and run. Back in the 2005 correction I gave back $138K before the nastiness stopped. In 2006 I gave back $124K and really plowed in at the bottom to do significant buying. These losses that I endure are only temporary because I have confidence that I am on the right side of the curve. I've been waiting for this nonsense to happen - so how far down will I go before the pain ends this time - I've already been clipped $48K from the top, so I can endure more pain if it's delivered. I have unceremoniously been dumping good money down a dark rabbit hole - why do I do that? I do it because that is what I have always done - simple answer is I like value and the income these stocks provide. I am building a further base to achieve a few more hundreds of thousands of dollars in gains - you have to be in to win. I currently have 18 more stocks on my list to buy and will make those purchases soon. Will patiently wait and endure suffering until the resumption of the Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3 reemerges - and I know it will. This is simply psychology that has turned negative and I'm not willing to sacrifice my positions by stepping out of the way. I'll take a cig with the blindfold please.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What a hectic life I live - just can't seem to stay on the straight and narrow - actually been that way forever. Apparently that's why I'm a contrarian.

With the market down 34 on the close the oceanic only gave back $262.00 and the tugboat gave back $1380. So I'll continue to ride my Ducati down into the valley and if we have any large shifts either way I'll be buying.

Isn't that Ape avatar a male rendition? Or is it a romantic illusion.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Isn't that Ape avatar a male rendition? Or is it a romantic illusion.

Moderating is a not a glamorous job and one reason why annoying a moderator can get you banned. Let's hope this is the last we hear of your recent ape fettish. Let's talk about them bulls and bears instead. Thank you sir.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I am avoiding the sparring because people have limited time and they don't need to waste it on account of our egos. With that said, the rest of this comment is an FYI and not an attack.

You make a point of expressing how immune you are to ravages of the market, in fact this is the corner stone of the image you are trying to create for yourself. However, we are all noticing that the frequency of your nasty comments increases considerable when you are losing money. It's something you might want to consider during the course of promoting your image.