WIND_HUNTER
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 2
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
div>
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Our correction has been of a stealth nature - if you owned energy you have corrected. If you owned agricultural machinery you are untouched. If you owned both sectors you have been treading water like myself. But we are getting ready for an aggressive breakout - we'll see Dow 13,000 without much of a rest. Manure laiden bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gunshy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. The A/D line in not diverting, and its very rare the price will top without A/D divergence. And besides as long as our members are side tracked with the I fund the C fund will do fine - I like it that way as a contrarian.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Honestly, I don't even know why I bother now that Mrs. Ayla is not reading. I guess I'm just dedicated to the best information available.
From TWSJ titled: Dollar's Bounce Spurs Revised Outlooks for Year, by Joanna Slater dated 1/17/07.
The dollar's strong start in the new year is causing some currency-watchers to rethink their expectations for a swooning dollar in 2007. Just a few weeks ago, the conventional wisdom held that the dollar was headed downward due to slowing growth in the U.S. and a renewed focus on the country's yawning deficits. The dollar has bucked those expectations, rising morethan 2% against the euro since the start of the year. It has also strengthened against the yen, hitting a 13-month high and breaking the symbolic barrier of 120 yen to the dollar.
Driving this strength: robust economic data in the U.S., with signs that the trade deficit may be stabilizing. With each indication that the U.S. economy is expanding at a healthy clip, it becomes less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates to spur growth and might even raise them further. Today short-term rates in the U.S. already are higher than in Europe or Japan, so indications that those rates will remain steady or rise make it relatively more appealing to hold dollars. As a result. some currency strategists think the dollar might suffer only limited losses this year, or perhaps even finish the year roughly where it started.
The dollar's trajectory has a big impact on investors. Last year, the dollar's downward drift provided a generous boost to American investors' returns earned overseas, since profits in other currencies bought more dollars. Last year, the dollar weakened 12% against the euro. Analyst now think that kind of slide is unlikely to happen in the near future. I don't think we're looking at a repeat of 2006, the bulk of dollar weakness is probably behind us.
Of course, currency movements are notoriously difficult to predict. The dollar still faces pressure on several fronts. The main persistent and long term worry is the fact that the U.S. imports far more than it saves, making it dependent on other countries to finance the gap. One way to address that imbalance is a weaker dollar, since it would make the country's exports more attractive. The second concern relates to the large amount of dollars held by central banks around the world. The dollar is the world's favored reserve currency but the rising acceptance of the euro together with the dollar's recent weakness has led central banks to consider diversifying their holdings. So far, moves in that direction have been limited. Any sign that central banks are shifting a significant portion of their reserves out of dollars could weigh heavily on the U.S. currency.
Both of these concerns are of the longer-term variety. Their effect on the dollar is likely to play out over many months or years. In the meantime, shorter-term economic indicators are dictating the dollar's course. Last November, the dollar began tumbling against the euro when it appeared that U.S. growth was slowing as Europe's accelerated. If the economies were headed in different directions, reasoned traders, so too would short-term interest rates - lower in the U.S. to spur the economy, and higher in Europe to keep inflation undrr control. Falling rates hurt a currency by making it less attractive, because investors earn lower returns on assets denominated in that currency. Now those expectations about interest-rate policy are shifting.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Part-2: A slew of positive data on the U.S. economy has nearly eliminated the market's prior belief that the Federal Reserve would cut rates as early as March. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, sounded a less hawkish note on inflation in early January, although further rate increases are likely. The current situation - where U.S. short-term rates are higher than in either Europe or Japan - looks set to persist, producing a relatively benign environment for the dollar. Underlying that scenario is a belief that the U.S. economy won't slow further and instead will start to rev up. The market has its verb tenses wrong. The U.S. is not slowing down - it has already slowed down. One area where currency analysts seem in agreement is the scenario for the yen. Tomorrow, Japan's central bank will decide whether to raise short-term interest rates, a move that could offer some support to its currency. However, even with a rate increase, borrowing in Japanese yen would remain extremely inexpensive by global standards.
Those low rates have fueled a phenomenon known as the "carry trade", in which investors borrow Japanese yen at low local interest rates, then convert the currency into other currencies and invest it in countries with higher interest rates. The trade creates a downward drag on Japan's currency, since the maneuver involves selling yen to use the proceeds elsewhere. As long as that dynamic persists, currency strategists say it's tough to foresee a significant strengthening in the currency. The yen's underlying weakening trend will remain in place.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The dollar chart can be interpreted as bullish"
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tanashian/2007/0117.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From TWSJ titled: Japan's Profits Rise, but Wages Stagnate, by Yuka Hayashi, dated 1/16/07.
Japan's economic expansion has been a one-sided affair: Corporatrions are booming, but consumers haven't been invited to the party. Japanese corporate earnings are expected to rise this fiscal year for a fifth consecutive year. Stock and real-estate prices are climbing - a contrast to the declines they experienced for a decade until the early 2000s. Help-wanted signs are everywhere, and the jobless rate fell to an eight-year low of 4% in November. The economy as a whole has been expanding for nearly five years.
But one key element has failed to materialize: Growth in workers' wages. Even as many Japanese companies report record earnings, they aren't sharing the fruits with employees. In an effort to fend off competition from China and other Asian rivals, companies are instead using spare cash to beef up research and upgrade computer systems. They are also giving out fatter dividends and buying back shares in hope of boosting their share prices. They have held down pay raises and are replacing full-time positions with temporary and part-time jobs, which on average pay less than two-thirds the salary of full time posts. After falling nearly continously from 1997, Japanese workers' total cash earnings turned around and rose 1% in the fiscal year ended March 2006. This fiscal year, they are falling again: down 1.1% from a year earlier in November.
From Japanese companies' point of view, surviving in an increasingly competitive environment requires cutting costs by changing the labor structure. So they are hiring lower-cast labor: Inthe July-September quarter, the percentage of part-time or temporarey employees hit a record 33.4%, compared with 21% a decade ago. With wages not rising, consumers aren't about to splurge. Consumption accounts for a kittle more than half of Japan's economic activity, so weak spending is holding back growth.
Annualized household consumption in the July-September quarter was down 3.8% from the previous quarter. Japan's real economic growth was at 2.2% in calendar 2006, short of the 12-nation euro zones's 2.7% and the U.S.'s 3.3%. It is very possible the CPI will turn negative starting in the April-June quarter. The low interest rates have had the effect of weakening the yen. Japanese investors have been shifting their savings into assets denominated in other currencies, which have provided higher interest rates. The move has weighed on the yen's value, which now stands close to 120 yen to the dollar, compared with about 100 yen two years ago.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
My AZZ dropped 7 points today how lucky is that? It's not people selling that makes prices move lower - it's prices moving lower that make people sell. My last purchase of AZZ was on 7/14/06 at $27.48 so the current intraday price is a steal at $44.22. So I just leveraged down and made another purchase. In two weeks we'll be back to $52.00 so I may begin to leverage on the upside. I'm not going to get all beared up until I see at least one top below one top on the NYAD and the NYUD.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"My personal outlook is that the U.S. economy has been for sometime and continues to run on a credit cycle, not a traditional business cycle." by Brian Pretti dated 1/19/07.
http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htmRe: Birchtree's account talk
Dang Network Smart Filter.
Access Denied (policy_denied)
Your system policy has denied access to the requested URL.
For assistance, contact your network support team
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From TWSJ opinion page titled Surging Revenues, no author, 1/17/07
The myth persists in some media circles that the federal budget deficit is "surging" or ballooning or something terrible - all of which is served up as ammunition for those in Congress who want a tax increase. At the risk of being drummed out of the guild, we thought you'd rather have the real story.
The deficit has in fact declined by some $165 billion over the past two fiscal years, and according to the most recent data has continued to fall in the first quarter of fiscal 2007. The latest Treasury estimates for January show that tax receipts in December were $18 billion higher than a year earlier, helping to boost the budget surplus for the month to $40 billion, up from $11 billion a year ago. December is typically a good month for revenues due to year-end tax payments.
Meanwhile, for the first three months of fiscal 2007 through December, revenues climbed 8.1%, building on double-digit revenue increases in the previous two years. Corporate income taxes were up a remarkable 22.2% in the first fiscal quarter, showing that the government continues to grab a nice chunk of the rising business profits that so many of our politicians like to deplore. Individual income taxes rose 8.8%, thanks to strong wage and salary growth. Much of this revenue comes from "the rich", believe it or not.
In the most surprising budget news, federal spending was nearly flat in the first fiscal quarter. This was despite a 22.1% increase in Medicare spending due largely to the new prescription drug benefit, and a 10.7% increase in defense. So the first quarter deficit was $85 billion, down sharply from $119 billion a year earlier. ( DMA I hope you read this and weep ).
Alll in all, despite huge outlays for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the nation's fiscal picture is brightening. We hate to ruin the press corp's day with such cheerful news, but there it is.
.
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I cleaned up the thread and posted the comments here.
Access to the MB at work or from a Agency computer.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3874
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From MLPF&S - Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst - 1/19/07
The recent recovery high in the S&P 500 was supported by a positive turn in the 14-day stochastic indicator. This measure also turned positive for the Russell 2000, pointing to further highs for that index. Price momentum remains bullish for the Transports. Breadth and volume are also confirming the moves in the market averages.
MZM growth is strong; hedge funds still a source of liquidity. MZM, which is basically a measure of cash, continues to rise sharply; its 13-week rate of change is +13%, more than double the annual rate of 5.5%. A pick up in MZM is typically positively correlated to stock prices. Our overbought/oversold relative price model of the S&P 500 shows that sector and industry level positions are balanced, pointing to higher highs for the market. Short interest has soared across the board in the financial sector. That's a bullish contrarian development, in our view. (Hold that C fund) The sector has been a leader, and its breakout is bullish for the market as a whole. The energy sector has the weakest relative price momentum, but most of its correction appears to be finished.
The VIX rose during the market advance of 1996 to 1998. It's really a matter of how much liquidity there is in the system and has very little directly to do with complacency or panic. The main reason why the volatility indexes have continued to move lower is that there has been a ton of liquidity to absorb any quirkiness.
The Birchtree has ten trading days to make my January goal of $100,000 - and I'm still positive I'll make it. Snort.
fabijo
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a speculator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money."
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/kleinman/2007/0122.htmlSimilar threads
