Birchtree's Account Talk

[jpcavin]

I don't pay much attention to anything that comes out of Zero Hedge. The VIX traded between 10 and 20 for the better part of the bull market that unfolded between 2003 and 2007. So I'm not currently worried. I did buy some VOL, CLF, and CBI this morning.

What do you dislike about Zero Hedge? I hate it, simply because a co-worker preaches about it all day long. Would love to hear an opposing opinion.

 

[Birchtree]

Zero Hedge is a bearish joint - nothing good there for a permabull like myself.

 

[jpcavin]

Zero Hedge is a bearish joint - nothing good there for a permabull like myself.

Yeah, a bear pretty much describes him. Always advices me to get out before the market crashes. :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

I'm finding it surprising how many smart folks have missed this mega trend secular bull from March '09 - I just keep buying equities and building my income stream. I can see a few years out but Ferdinand may be looking out ten years or longer.

 

[Birchtree]

S&P 39,000 - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

Another purrfect day to throw money away - dividends are heavy lifting and margin buying power is burning a hole in my pocket so I'm buying: NBR, NFX, KEG, SBGL, RDC.

 

[Birchtree]

It would appear that my Manitowoc (MTW) is in play. More buying power coming my way. There is no sense wasting time looking for a top because there isn't one - too much money left out in the cold needing a return. I still have margin buying power available but I want much more to turn up the heat. I think we may rally today.

 

[Birchtree]

The market didn't turn out that terrible afterall and I'm inching closer to my goal of +$300K for June - Monday might put me over the top. I did pick up some more buying power today - very unexpectedly so I may throw more dollars away next week. Here is what my oceanic did: -$10K, -$76K, +$63K, +$1K, +$43K for a total gain of +$21K. Very often, the best way to be successful in the long run is not to aim at being successful in the short run. If the market generates buying power I'll buy this bull all summer until I drop. "Only a surging economy will end the bull run."

 

[Birchtree]

Oh please do me one time. I mentioned this subject a year ago. "So a central bank investing in equities is clearly a case of mission creep."

Taming the Markets | Alasdair Macleod | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

Central Banks Buying Stocks - The Beginning of a Major Trend? | Cris Sheridan | FINANCIAL SENSE

Now that should stiffen the bullish backbone some.

 

[Birchtree]

"If you think our current experience is close to the Great Depression and it will take just as long to recover, then we may actually be looking at ultra-low rates for many years to come - or decades." It's time to seek more margin leverage.

Ultra-Low Rates Could Last Another Decade | Cris Sheridan | FINANCIAL SENSE

 

[Birchtree]

Chart o’ the Day: The Industrial Production Boom | The Reformed Broker

 

[Birchtree]

"Nothing threatens this stock bull market. I believe the conditions now in place fostert a bull market that could last 18 to 20 years."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46236.html

 

[Birchtree]

In July 2013 my oceanic took in +$308K and if I can do that this time around for July 2014 I'll definitely be in the sweet spot and I ain't talking G spots.

 

[Birchtree]

"Stocks - what to do when interest rates will rise."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46251.html

 

[nasa1974]

"Nothing threatens this stock bull market. I believe the conditions now in place fostert a bull market that could last 18 to 20 years."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46236.html

BT, I can sense your nostrils flaring. Careful, breathing all that Bull Manure can make you light headed.

 

[nasa1974]

In July 2013 my oceanic took in +$308K and if I can do that this time around for July 2014 I'll definitely be in the sweet spot and I ain't talking G spots.

July of 2013 was very good. But remember it was sandwiched between a bad June and a terrible August.

 

[Birchtree]

You are correct about June and August 2013 - but we're in the business of looking forward. I had an imaginary goal of +$300K for this June and managed to pull in +$273K. So for July I'll take +$350K if I can get it. YTD I'm ahead +$532K so I march forward and if I can stay in the sweet spot I'll spend serious money to stay in the game. The more I can make ther more I can spend and the more I can spend the more I can make - a very dangerous but simple strategy. My SPX goal for year end remains at 2400.

 

[Longstreet]

"Stocks - what to do when interest rates will rise."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46251.html

Do valuations not matter when the interest rate rise occurs? I would think so. They give the 2004 example of what happened, but valuations in 2004 (coming off the 2000-2002 bear market) were either depressed or average, depending on your optimism. Current valuations are certainly not depressed and historically WAY above average. Additionally, it would seem to me that the starting point of where the rise occurs is somewhat important. Rising from 4% is very differenet than rising from 1%, for example. I just don't see how rising rates won't have a huge impact, considering how strongly the accomodative policies have helped the markets.

 

[Birchtree]

The market sees rising rates as evidence that the economy is improving and earnings will endure and the bull will continue to run. As a matter of fact I'm feeling the animal spirits myself as bulldaddy and buying some happiness today: FNF, EWJ, WOR, HEI, GLT, GCI, GDXJ, FCX. The Dow could take out 17,000 today with ease.