Birchtree's Account Talk

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"In 1995 the S&P 500 went 95 days without a 1% move. The market over the subsequent four years, of course, would turn in one of its strongest performance in history."

Boring doesn
 
Has anybody ever said I wish I had not bought stock 5 years ago? Long term it does not matter what the price is today in 5 years time it will look like a bargain.

Birchtree said:
"In 1995 the S&P 500 went 95 days without a 1% move. The market over the subsequent four years, of course, would turn in one of its strongest performance in history."

Boring doesn
Click to expand...
 
And here I sit still waiting on a +300 point open on the Dow to get some attention. I know it will happen. One of the biggest mistakes investors make when it comes to trying to time market turns is in thinking that there will be a clear catalyst or sign ahead of time that tells them when the market is about to turn. The truth is that there almost never is unless the Japanese pension funds are on go. They are on their way looking for growth - TINA.
 
"The conditions for a bad market just don't exist. You can throw a dart at the market and about anything you hit is gonna go up the next six months." We need a martyr.
 
I read somewhere that there's a correlation between gold prices and the 10Y treasury yield. When do you expect interest rates to start climbing again? Next year? Two years from now?
 
Increasing interest rates will not hurt the market until the Fed funds rate gets to 5% - that could be decades away. Betula papyrifera says look at SBGL for the long term.
 
I can't purchase ADRs and I was hoping to make a quick play with DUST. Sometimes I feel like a Salix babylonica.
 
I saw lending tree saying mortgage rates at 2.75% I'm gonna call my bank and see what I can do to consolidate my 4 home rates at about 4.25% now and get in on a lower rate.
 
My oceanic acount this week was fine: +$21K, +$32K, +$47K, +$17K, +$13K for a sweet gain of +$130K. I could be on my way to a +$300K month. A couple good days next week would put me over.
 
"At the current pace, M&A deals could reach $3.51 trillion this year, the most since 2007, according to data provider Dealogic. It's possible that the market is at the beginning of a long M&A boom that could last a few more years." A market can go a lot farther than one can imagine. So, the question is just how high this 5th wave must travel to take bullishness to appropriate heights for a significant market correction. It doesn't matter to me because I'm a cycle rider. History has seen years when stocks increased 25, 30, or even 40 percent over the entire calendar year. Right now stocks are the only game in town and the Fed has told us that.
 
"Private-equity firms had amassed but not yet invested $107 trillion of money globally at the end of 2013, according to provider Preqin, an increase of $130 billion from 2012. This year's total has reached $114 trillion globally as the start of June." Some of those dollars needs to find their way into my accounts.
 
Not to be braggadocio but I think I may have entered the sweet spot. By that I mean any market gains will go into my margin buying power which provides plenty of flexability. It's conceivable that the next six months of any kind of continued melt-up can provide me with multiple hundreds of thousands of dollar to spend. I may use my margin account to borrow against instead of taking out a jumbo mortgage loan - my rates are actually lower and I won't have to sell any stocks for a down payment. Yup, it all depends on the Dow and other global markets - this mega trend secular bull market may actually still be in its' early stages of growth. I'll be calling my real estate buy agent at the end of the week and get her working. Remember that trends lines do not always bring out sellers.
 
I just counted 33 more dividends due before the next four trading days end - so bring on more of that sprinkle tinkle stuff. We need a little rain.

"Corporate pension funds and university endowments in the U.S. missed out on much of the rally for stocks since 2009, following a push to diversify into other investments that have had disappointing performance." And I am so sorry - they'll just have to chase the Grand Trunk.
 
I don't pay much attention to anything that comes out of Zero Hedge. The VIX traded between 10 and 20 for the better part of the bull market that unfolded between 2003 and 2007. So I'm not currently worried. I did buy some VOL, CLF, and CBI this morning.
 
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