Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Oh give me a break. Should economic data show signs of improvement, the S&P 500 may post a rally similar to the bull market that started in 1982, when the index advanced 229%, or the one in 1990, when it surged 302%. In January 2011, Birinyi said the average length and size of bull markets suggested the S&P 500 would rally to 2854 in Sept 2014. New bull highs dramatically alter sentiment, paving the way for big late-upleg gains. The fact that European indexes are setting their own new cyclical bull highs is a super bullish milestone - hold that I fund.

 

[NiteFlyer]

... hold that I fund.

I am

 

[JTH]

Glad to have you back, there aren't enough yard sticks a Nun could break over your hands...

 

[Birchtree]

Money, money everywhere. 2013 is likely a year of reflation (Japan), similar to 2003 and 2009. Such an environment is going to be conducive toward more risk assets and may result in a moon shot higher for stocks. I am personally not in the S fund - there is going to be some pain felt there soon. My oceanic account is probably 85% small caps so when the pain arrives I just buy more wall flowers with my dividends.

 

[Birchtree]

"The danger in volatile markets lies not just in the volatility itself, but alsio in how investors react to it. However quickly or often it happens, stock prices will continue to go up and down this year. Investors (Birchtree) who diversify their portfolios broadly and hew to a strategy designed for long-term success, will likely weather those ups and downs with less angst, and likely less loss, than those who attempt to time the market's inevitable gyrations. Market volatility may not be unavoidable, but it is usually manageable." Time in the market can often be more rewarding than timing the market. I now have 16 dividend increase announcement so far this year - may pick up a few more before months end. Based on the history of prior bulls that have hit the three year mark, year four has also been positive. Buckle up.

 

[MaStA]

It's good to have you back Birch!!

 

[hotwings]

Hey Birtch... hope all is well. What's you view on BTU right now? Shall we be nibbling away or wait until after they report earnings next week? I see it's a cold winter and China' economy is picking up steam which "should" bode well for coal companies like BTU going forward. Comments and thoughts are always welcome...

 

[weatherweenie]

Birch,

Do you own or follow UAN?

With the 6% drop today are you a buyer?

 

[Birchtree]

I'm going to hold my BTU position and will undoubtedly add more shares over time - the value for a contrarian is obvious. I have no position in UAN or an opinion - but I will look further.

 

[Birchtree]

Just checked out UAN (CVR Energy). I'd be inclined to dollar cost average into today's pain - providing a 2.86% yield. The ex dividend date is 2/5/13. Gotta like energy as the global economic gains grow. I will probably take up a position in IEO - Ishares DJ oil and gas exploration in the near future. I'm waiting to see more share buybacks and some stock splits this year. The vast majority of longer-term charts have moved into bullish territory. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Calling Frito 15 - we need the services of a (Cooler). Many S funders clogging the tracker need your visit and attention.

 

[Birchtree]

I've been preoccupied this afternoon watching a red tail hawk build her nest - more exciting than this slow boat I'm on today. Can't wait for pop red tail to show and the new family to begin. I'll eventually try leaving some cat food in my drive way for them.

 

[Birchtree]

One day during the August 2011 consolidation the market dropped (Dow) -419 points and took me to the cleaners to the tune of -$202K. Now would be an excellent time to recoup some payback with a 400 point gap up on an opening. Now that would send a message to mom ans pop - now is the time to hustle.

 

[wavecoder]

One day during the August 2011 consolidation the market dropped (Dow) -419 points and took me to the cleaners to the tune of -$202K. Now would be an excellent time to recoup some payback with a 400 point gap up on an opening. Now that would send a message to mom ans pop - now is the time to hustle.

400 point gap up? why stop there, why not 800?

you could be livin' romney style haha

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I have returned with gratitude from the indignation of banishment #9. As much as I post it is inevitable that I end up on occasion eventually micturating bull tinky on someone's shoes. This time I was banned for using the term wanton inappropriately. I suspect a complaint from a jealous former glum and banal adversarial burrito. A comrade that obviously confused wanton with wonton - a soup.

Have to admit, it was kinda funny! :laugh:

 

[JTH]

I wonder who has more bans you or Milkman?

 

[Birchtree]

The rally today could be discounting the January nonfarm payroll report on Friday which could be a surprise banger. QE4 continues to print money.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm thinking that if the VIX falls back below the 13 level this market could jump like a rabbit right past Dow 14,000. The bond market is still grossly overvalued and the great rotation will continue. Whenever we get our panic event it's not the time to panic. Now a panic buy to the upside is another strategy - you gotta chase. I'm reminded that the more confirmation one seeks, the less potential reward is left on the table. Risk is what creates opportunity. When there is no perceived risk, there is no opportunity.

 

[Birchtree]

The sky up ahead is clear blue and flying with visual flight rules is the norm. The economy may not be growing very fast, but it remains very dynamic and adaptable, and that alone is reason to remain optimistic about the future. I'm starting to tense up which always happens when money starts to flow into my pockets - the VIX is dropping. Get ready for more escape velocity.

 

[Birchtree]

For those that are roaming the halls in the dark - success is not final, failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts.