Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Hyman, Stattman On What To Expect In 2013 | The Guru Investor

 

[Sensei]

Regional banks are doing fine today along with the home builders - now if something good would just happen with coal I'd be a happy camper. There are however historic highs popping up all over the place like green shoots. Tomorrow should really destroy the shorts and rock the market even higher - remember the bus goes faster with fewer on board.

After the Fukushima meltdown, the price of uranium crashed so I started buying a dividend paying ETF for it (URA). It's spiraled continually downward, but I've been steadily tossing little DCAs down the hole. Now it's starting to make a comeback. Up almost 4% yesterday. Come on baby.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

So after reading Birch's posts the past year I invested my son's IRA in dividend paying stocks. We opted for one in Schwab instead of the military TSP for him as more investment choices. He got some dividends this past month. And the stock value is doing well.

Feeling a little "Birchy"

Pepsi, Genuine Parts, and Leggett & Platt. Dividend Re-invest. Watching his account grow.

Vectron Corp should be paying soon. Thinking about buying some AFLAC, what do you think of that one Birch?

 

[Birchtree]

I own Genuine Parts and my daughter owns Leggett & Platt. You are on the right track with individual dividend reinvestment - you get to buy more four times per year. That's dollar cost averaging at its' best and it gets better as time rolls on. One more thing - you might think about some GE and F for the longer term. They both have increasing dividends going forward.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is being hammered today like a fine piece of silver resting at 13.00 -0.57 and headed lower - the herd is on the way and the rally should gain strength.

 

[NiteFlyer]

The VIX is being hammered today like a fine piece of silver resting at 13.00 -0.57 and headed lower - the herd is on the way and the rally should gain strength.

You hear that S and I funds! BT says you're heading the wrong way this morning. The herd is supposed to be moving THAT way <points up> <nudges the I and S funds along>. Move along little doggies!:notrust:

 

[Birchtree]

When I put my ear to the rails I can hear the Grand Trunk approaching with a mighty rumble. The VIX is breaking hard due to some progress on debt ceiling deliberations and sitting currently at 12.68 -0.71. Blow me out with a big top move. Snort.

 

[wavecoder]

snort

 

[Birchtree]

Today it seems like the VIX ain't got no bottom - now at 12.69 -0.88. This will create some panic in the bears for sure.

Wednesday Report...What If All the Gloom and Doom is Wrong? | Rambus Chartology | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

So what will a bull market correction phenomenon look like? In August 2011 the SPX plunged 16.3% in 10 trading days and eveyone assumed a new cyclical bear market was starting. These consolidations are fast selling with velocity often termed terminal panic velocity but they never happen early in a cyclical bear market according to market history. These extreme sell offs don't happen in early cyclical bear markets or even late bear sell offs. So hold the line when panic velosity surfaces because it won't last and the bull market will resume. Friends, we are seeing valuations that are the lowest since prior to the great bull market in August 1982 - you don't remember 1982 - well I do. A p/e ratio of 13 will provide a Dow of 14,300 - not that far away.

 

[JimmyJoe]

So what will a bull market correction phenomenon look like? In August 2011 the SPX plunged 16.3% in 10 trading days and eveyone assumed a new cyclical bear market was starting. These consolidations are fast selling with velocity often termed terminal panic velocity but they never happen early in a cyclical bear market according to market history. These extreme sell offs don't happen in early cyclical bear markets or even late bear sell offs. So hold the line when panic velosity surfaces because it won't last and the bull market will resume. Friends, we are seeing valuations that are the lowest since prior to the great bull market in August 1982 - you don't remember 1982 - well I do. A p/e ratio of 13 will provide a Dow of 14,300 - not that far away.

Thanks for the information. I'll keep this quote on my quick referral list. Won't need it till maybe mid Feb, maybe. it'll be good to refer to this, to keep me 'in' the market. Most likely the drop will come in May. Till then I'm on my way to a 20-25% year. It's going to be a nice Spring. In 1492 Columbus sailed the ocean blue. The S&P was on the horizon at 1492, looking past it to the new world of 1550 in the year of 2013.

 

[Birchtree]

The oceanic did OK this week: -$17K, +$17K, -$14K, +$43K, +$31K for a grand total of +$60K. Next week is a four day trading week and sometimes they can be very profitable. With eight trading days left for January I'm keeping the fires burning for my whisper number to be taken out. Now that the weekly MACD for the S&P 500 has given us a buy signal we could see a multi-week to a multi-month rally in stocks ahead. Low VIX readings don't always translate into imminent sell offs. It traded between 10 and 20 for the better part of the bull market that unfolded between 2003 and 2007. We could conceivably drop below the 12 level real soon - that will encourage further rotation of money out of bonds - I should have empathy for bond holders.

 

[Birchtree]

When we see multiple strongly positive breath days it is a sign that there is a lot of money standing in line waiting to get through the door. Since the bond market is 10 times larger than the equity market this rally can last - well you tell me. Studies have shown that investors and consumers tend to be 2-3 years behind the curve of a financial market trend. They will re-enter the market, but only if stocks have advanced during that time - the time is now.

 

[konakathy]

HEY!!! PIMP DADDY! I resemble that remark you made about me in JoyLynn's thread. :toung:

Imma want'en a lot of things in life,(and I like a good wonton) but I'm not interested in being a part of your corral. What's wrong?! Not making enough money
fo your crib in Flo-rida? Or just looking to expand west?

Take off the bling, the diamond studded grill, the fuzzy purple hat and stick it up your wallflowers. :laugh:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

From the newsfeeder...

Just for you Birch!!

The Pursuit Of Mediocrity - Fallacy Of Dollar Cost Averaging And The Abuse Of Indexing - Seeking Alpha

 

[Birchtree]

In my portfolio who has time for the opportunity of intelligent timing, that's why I use a dividend reinvestment program that is cost effective.

 

[Birchtree]

Perry Ellis: Bargain Stock - Seeking Alpha

 

[Handballer]

Account: xxxx-xxxx Your Day sell order (Jan 14th) for 150 BAC at market price was executed
at $11.4501. See order # 466 for details. Did I sell too early?

IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY
In observance of the Martin Luther King
Jr. holiday, the stock and bond markets and the Federal Reserve Bank will be
closed on Monday, January 21, 2013.

 

[JTH]

Hey buddy, just checking in, let me know if you need anything.

 

[hotwings]

Hey Birtch... hope all is well. What's you view on BTU right now? Shall we be nibbling away or wait until after they report earnings next week? I see it's a cold winter and China' economy is picking up steam which "should" bode well for coal companies like BTU going forward. Comments and thoughts are always welcome...