Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"Low readings in the VIX simply denotes an expectation that significant moves, either up or down, are unlikely over the next 30 days. Low VIX readings don't always translate into imminent selloffs. The VIX Index traded between 10 and 20 for the better part of the bull market that unfolded between 2003 and 2007."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1112811-beware-market-complacency-and-speculation-on-the-rise

 

[Birchtree]

Well BOO - everyone knows there will be another consolidation probably during the summer as usual. But fear should be aggressively bought, never sold. I posted these words back in August 2011 during that intense correction which may have been the end of the secular bear market. "Sadly, the great majority of investors and speculators haven't trained themselves to fight the crowd. Instead of buying low in extreme fear, they sell low. Then they stay out until long after the markets have rallied dramatically, only belatedly returning to buy high. It is only the contrarians, the wise minority that have hardened and steeled themselves to trade fear rationally, that buy low, sell high, and earn fortunes." To contrarians intense selloffs are harbingers of great opportunities - aggressively buying stocks in their fear filled hearts nearly always leads to huge profits within a matter of months - just be prepared and don't cut and run.

 

[Birchtree]

On second thought - I'd prefer a sharp selloff to reset some oscillators and provide that fear. Then the odds of a sharp rally immediately after a fast selloff are very high that will take us to 1500 on the SPX. So get ready to rumble because oversoldness and excessive fear are never sustainable, regardless of current or near future news flow. And the subsequent rallies out of these oversold lows are big, fast and highly profitable and often lead to sustained cyclical bull market uplegs - so please bring it.

 

[Birchtree]

Is There Any Hope For Stock Bears? | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

 

[99percent]

On second thought - I'd prefer a sharp selloff to reset some oscillators and provide that fear. Then the odds of a sharp rally immediately after a fast selloff are very high that will take us to 1500 on the SPX. So get ready to rumble because oversoldness and excessive fear are never sustainable, regardless of current or near future news flow. And the subsequent rallies out of these oversold lows are big, fast and highly profitable and often lead to sustained cyclical bull market uplegs - so please bring it.

2 Likes because the first post is so true and the second one gets me all giddy with excitement!

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.zacks.com/commentary/25408/economic-growth--cyclical-rally

 

[rktect1]

Now that i am 90% into g and f fund, i would love to see a massive selloff.

Except my vanguard account is still exposed. Well, i cant win em all eh?

 

[Birchtree]

The longer you sit at the station waiting on the Grand Funk Railway the more it's going to hurt - missing opportunity can be very painful.

"The great rotation makes stocks a generational buy."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38508.html

 

[JTH]

The longer you sit at the station waiting on the Grand Funk Railway the more it's going to hurt - missing opportunity can be very painful.

"The great rotation makes stocks a generational buy."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38508.html

I'm somewhat wondering why you chose to hold onto those large caps, the 20C is tamping you down, are you going to rotate out into another fund?

 

[JTH]

[h=1]Cat Beats Investors In Stock Market Challenge[/h]

 

[Birchtree]

Mindylou says hold the 20C position as a hedge to buffer the 80I position. The euro along with RRTS is leading the way for the future.

 

[Birchtree]

A mild disappointment on BAC today - last fall I was holding with a -$7K loss and burp I'm up +$13K. I'll be holding this wall flower until I have a profit of +$100K. I'll have 10,000 shares before I'm done my dollar cost averaging approach. Banks are going to lead this bull market.

 

[maverick06]

Birchtree,
You are always in the market. I rarely post, and rarely do super well in the TSP. But I am actively reading this forum a few times a day for a bit more than a year so far.

You stay in the market, much more often than not you are right. Thats how my dad is. I always think i can do better, but rarely do.

Thanks for always being the optimist, its refreshing! doubly so on a start like todays!

 

[Frixxxx]

A mild disappointment on BAC today - last fall I was holding with a -$7K loss and burp I'm up +$13K. I'll be holding this wall flower until I have a profit of +$100K. I'll have 10,000 shares before I'm done my dollar cost averaging approach. Banks are going to lead this bull market.

Agreed, those will be drivers of the economy, Those with the money will use it to make the money.

Still have to get over this whole implication of taxes before those with the money feel comfortable enough to put money to use.

 

[Birchtree]

Very serious money can be made trading the TSP accounts but you need multi-thousand share positions to make the risk worthwhile. It's the old guys that have all the money because they earned it working a lifetime and saving. In my opinion dollar cost averaging is the strategy to build a base and while that base is building members learn before they churn.

 

[maverick06]

Birch,
Whats your thought on mutual funds? I have a few bucks I am looking at doing something with. I have had both mediocre and extremely good luck with mutual funds in the past. Specific stocks always seem to be troublesome for me, especially since I like a buy and hold product (not exactly true for TSP, but thats seperate) and miss selling it when i should have.

Just looking for some biased opinions. Thanks

 

[wavecoder]

*clang clang clang clang*

 

[Mcqlives]

Very serious money can be made trading the TSP accounts but you need multi-thousand share positions to make the risk worthwhile. It's the old guys that have all the money because they earned it working a lifetime and saving. In my opinion dollar cost averaging is the strategy to build a base and while that base is building members learn before they churn.

How about 1600 by years end.

 

[Birchtree]

Maverick06,

I don't personally own any mutual funds - I elected to build my own which provides me the opportunity to harvest stocks when I want. Fiduciary accounts like TSP only offer mutual fund indexes and my wife and daughter own mutual funds via their defined contribution employer plans. I'm too old to bother with any mutual funds except TSP - all my investing knowlege is cumulative and I'm more comfortable with individual wall flowers. Money is going to flood the market. You might look at an ETF that would provide a concentration into a particular industry - that reminds me I do own KOL and a few gold etfs.

 

[Birchtree]

Regional banks are doing fine today along with the home builders - now if something good would just happen with coal I'd be a happy camper. There are however historic highs popping up all over the place like green shoots. Tomorrow should really destroy the shorts and rock the market even higher - remember the bus goes faster with fewer on board.