Birchtree's Account Talk

[Warrenlm]

I think I'll take my 2% gain on the day and get out.

Just could not resist playing journalist and selectively quoting.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm having fun today chasing Ferdinand: AOS, PNC, IPI, TEX, PCX, GE, BMS, EXP. The bears are on the run and the ISM will keep them in their caves.

 

[Birchtree]

A few more wall flower acqusitions and then Mindylou and I can rest for the day: LNN, CBI, MTW, JCI, BPO, MAS - until tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

"The good news is that we have probably seen the end of the bad news in the housing and construction sectors. The lack of more bad news will help optimism to return to a market that has been literally crushed by the worst set back in modern history."

http://scottgranis.blogspot.com/2012/01/outlook-for-construction-brightens.html

 

[WorkFE]

BT,
Knowing how much you love coal, I found room for ANR today.

 

[Birchtree]

My last purchase on ANR was at $19.85 and I do plan to nibble on it all the way to $60. Tomorrow I may pick up more shares in JRCC. I'll also but acquiring some more BTU.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/the-ultimate-2012-investment-predictions-outlooks-list

 

[Birchtree]

I feel like a drag queen for a day at #17 on the tracker - because that won't last long. I'm ready to go buy some chilly wall flowers before the Dow explodes upward.

 

[JTH]

I feel like a drag queen for a day at #17 on the tracker - because that won't last long. I'm ready to go buy some chilly wall flowers before the Dow explodes upward.

You should stop now since your already ahead, as for me, I'm in the 800s so I have nothing left to lose and everything left to gain.

 

[Birchtree]

I've been busy nibbling on a few chilly wall flowers: BTU, CNX, ANR, JRCC, MSB, STR, GWR, TLM. "Shares usually bottom and begin a new bull market when the sense of disbelief is the greatest. The more confirmation one seeks, the less potential reward is left on the table. Risk is what creates opportunity. When there is no perceived risk, there is no opportunity." It's a good day to be shopping for equities. Yesterday was a $92K pop for the oceanic account - I'd like to see that happen again this week.

 

[Birchtree]

I don't belong to any premium service. I do get TWSJ six days a week. Any extra money I have goes into cat food. The VIX is starting to drop a little and may go through the door in the floor - pushing the Dow higher. It's a good day to eat some hoof dust.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm going to plumb the oceanic tomorrow looking for wall flowers to DCA into in the oil services, equipment and drilling companies. I'm sure I own some.

 

[Birchtree]

"NYSE is breaking to the high side of the consolidation. This is bullish. There is still a low expected in mid-January, but it will be shallow."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32436.html

 

[Birchtree]

G-L-O-R-I-A - gloria, I think you move me, but I wanna know for sure. I'm excited and waiting on the last hour short squeeze that is on the way for sure. The VIX is heading back to 21.34 level. While some investors may worry about losing money by jumping into an uncertain market, there's just as much risk in missing out on profits once the market reverses to the upside.

 

[Birchtree]

Over the years I've owned my share of bankrupt companies and usually they turn out to be blessings because you can sell them at a loss that offsets a gain - so no harm done. We could be in an extended rally that has only minor one or two days worth of consolidations for the next few weeks. When the first 5 days of January are up and January as a month is up then the whole year ends up 95% of the time within this stage of the presidential cycle. We could be looking at another 1995 or 2009. To much time in the G fund will be expensive.

 

[nnuut]

IF I was in your situation I would completely agree, what would you suggest to the typical TSP investor?

 

[Birchtree]

The typical TSP investor should concentrate on dollar cost averaging and accumulate, accumulate and accumulate even more shares. It's the number of shares that determines the value. The only problem is that prices are not going to get any cheaper over the next couple of years.

 

[Warrenlm]

And after DCA time? You crossed that bridge awhile back. Now it's just hold? (And keep your beneficiary your trust? )

 

[nnuut]

The typical TSP investor should concentrate on dollar cost averaging and accumulate, accumulate and accumulate even more shares. It's the number of shares that determines the value. The only problem is that prices are not going to get any cheaper over the next couple of years.

Ok we all know that , but with the restrictions we have on our IFTs how do you do that, just ride the waives and be flat for the year?

 

[Birchtree]

So do we burn the open and then pound higher on the basis of ADP numbers - I think so. Get the profit takers out of the way and let the bulls buy their market.